Japan Consoles Showdown 2025: Nov 30th

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I personally don’t think it’ll be that tough, GTA VI might pose a threat to the vs, but that type of game isn’t as popular in Japan as it is everywhere else.

I can see PS5 reaching near 1.0M at the max.

Switch can get to 1.0M calmly.

Switch 2 will still dominate and reach probably near 5.5M.

The 3DS sold 1.7m in Japan in 2017 and then only sold a bit under 550k in 2018 so the Switch should only sell a few hundred thousand or so there next year.

Thats if we see a 70% decline next year from the speculative 1.55M in Japan. I do not see the Switch having a steep drop like that. To reach the 1.0M I proposed, it would be a ~35% decline. The Switch will see a slow decline in its twilight years.

Switch 2 is slightly constrained via their online sign-ups. But it is consistent and healthy.

Switch is living in a coexistence ecosystem. And will continue to receive games in 2026 (Pokemon Champions, Rhythm Heaven Groove, Tomadachi Life: Living the Dream). These three have deep resonation with Japanese audiences.

Nintendo expects the Switch to sell ~700k from Jan-Mar (this is worldwide). Thus Japan’s market should be near 27% of sales making it be around 189k for the first 3 months. Meaning for the other 6 months the three fun games are released keeping sales from slumping. I expect ~250k (Apr-Jun), ~270k (Jul-Sept) and 290k (Oct-Dec). These estimates are either underestimated slightly or “accurate”.

I see the Switch being supported (but limited) and selling up to the end of 2028.