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Norion on 25 October 2025
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

A 60-70% decline should happen yeah considering it's going to decline by over 50% this year when the Switch 2 didn't even release till June. In the road to 160m+ thread you pointed out that Z-A seemingly isn't boosting Switch 1 hardware sales at all so why are you expecting those three smaller games to do that by such a notable degree?

Your projections don't make sense since you're expecting it to be down massively for the first three months but then somehow it's only gonna be down by a bit over 10% Apr-Jun and then up YoY for Jul-Sept. If Jan-Mar is about 190k then the next two are easily gonna be below 150k considering that January is a relatively strong month for console sales in Japan.

Apologies for the pre-sent empty response.

This is fair and I understand.

Since Nintendo has said they will continue the Switch up to 2028 (indirectly through half-life cycle quotes in 2022), sounds like it will receive software and hardware support. So it won’t be a cliff. I believe we’ve already hit the cliff with the release of the Switch 2, and is now gradually and slowing descending gracefully. I’ll use DS numbers as the floor since the DS was a more collapse phase out. Its first year with the 3DS was a 80% drop. A lot steeper than the Switch’s expected 56%. The DS’s second year with the 3DS saw a 65% drop. So I’d place the maximum plausible decline with the Switch at ~65% leading to 540k. The minimum plausible decline we could see is ~25% similar to 3DS, PS2, PS3 (though that’s not my reasoning for my stance but does support and help it). A 35% decline is consistent with those consoles in a “stabilized second year phase out”. Seems like a conservative stance given the new scenario of a coexistence market.

I made the remark that Legends Z-A seems to not make a boost. This is most likely due to the audience saturation. So yes Legends Z-A is bigger but Pokémon Champions (has similar audiences but appeases classic Pokemon fans who are disappointed in the Switch mainline games and haven’t gotten a Switch), Rhythm Heaven & Tomadachi Life are aimed at Japanese tastes and include families, causal, and younger demographics. 
Again Z-A is bigger but the hardware elasticity of the three mentioned are higher in late lifecycle context concerning the demographics mentioned.

Jan usually and sells less than Dec, Nov, Sept & Mar (I think 2025 was a different scenario with people holding off for Switch 2). Jan usually and consistently sells above the rest of the months, ranking Jan 4th/5th out of 12. The lowest months are usually May and Jun. So I understand your remark about Apr-Jun, I think that software releasing will help it. But let’s continue with the idea that Apr-Jun won’t sell more than Jan-Mar. For that I’ll make a revision.

Jan-Mar 189k. Apr-Jun 150k. Jul-Sept ~290k. Oct-Dec ~360k

Jul-Sept has a 23% increase which isn’t impossible, we saw that consoles beforehand have had an increase as well selling alongside their successor (though it’s more closer to +5% YoY). Since the Switch is in a coexistence market with the Switch 2 we could see such an increase and is plausible.

Hope that helped.

Where are you getting 25% from? The 3DS declined by nearly 70% in Japan in 2018 and the PS3 51% in 2014. My expectation is that the Switch will act like those consoles and have a normal decline post the launch of its successor. The reason you've given to expect the Switch to behave radically different to systems like those ones is software continuing to sell hardware which doesn't work since non-exclusive software does not boost console sales in a major way once the successor is out and even exclusive software stops making a difference once the successor has been out for a while.

Sorry mate but your analysis is completely off here. There's no universe the Switch is up a quarter next year since console sales don't work like that. Unless there's really unusual circumstances sales fall off drastically each year once a successor is out and circumstances for the Switch and Switch 2 are not unusual.