Japan Consoles Showdown 2025: Nov 30th

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Shtinamin_ said:

Thats if we see a 70% decline next year from the speculative 1.55M in Japan. I do not see the Switch having a steep drop like that. To reach the 1.0M I proposed, it would be a ~35% decline. The Switch will see a slow decline in its twilight years.

Switch 2 is slightly constrained via their online sign-ups. But it is consistent and healthy.

Switch is living in a coexistence ecosystem. And will continue to receive games in 2026 (Pokemon Champions, Rhythm Heaven Groove, Tomadachi Life: Living the Dream). These three have deep resonation with Japanese audiences.

Nintendo expects the Switch to sell ~700k from Jan-Mar (this is worldwide). Thus Japan’s market should be near 27% of sales making it be around 189k for the first 3 months. Meaning for the other 6 months the three fun games are released keeping sales from slumping. I expect ~250k (Apr-Jun), ~270k (Jul-Sept) and 290k (Oct-Dec). These estimates are either underestimated slightly or “accurate”.

I see the Switch being supported (but limited) and selling up to the end of 2028.

A 60-70% decline should happen yeah considering it's going to decline by over 50% this year when the Switch 2 didn't even release till June. In the road to 160m+ thread you pointed out that Z-A seemingly isn't boosting Switch 1 hardware sales at all so why are you expecting those three smaller games to do that by such a notable degree?

Your projections don't make sense since you're expecting it to be down massively for the first three months but then somehow it's only gonna be down by a bit over 10% Apr-Jun and then up YoY for Jul-Sept. If Jan-Mar is about 190k then the next two are easily gonna be below 150k considering that January is a relatively strong month for console sales in Japan.

Apologies for the pre-sent empty response.

This is fair and I understand.

Since Nintendo has said they will continue the Switch up to 2028 (indirectly through half-life cycle quotes in 2022), sounds like it will receive software and hardware support. So it won’t be a cliff. I believe we’ve already hit the cliff with the release of the Switch 2, and is now gradually and slowing descending gracefully. I’ll use DS numbers as the floor since the DS was a more collapse phase out. Its first year with the 3DS was a 80% drop. A lot steeper than the Switch’s expected 56%. The DS’s second year with the 3DS saw a 65% drop. So I’d place the maximum plausible decline with the Switch at ~65% leading to 540k. The minimum plausible decline we could see is ~25% similar to 3DS, PS2, PS3 (though that’s not my reasoning for my stance but does support and help it). A 35% decline is consistent with those consoles in a “stabilized second year phase out”. Seems like a conservative stance given the new scenario of a coexistence market.

I made the remark that Legends Z-A seems to not make a boost. This is most likely due to the audience saturation. So yes Legends Z-A is bigger but Pokémon Champions (has similar audiences but appeases classic Pokemon fans who are disappointed in the Switch mainline games and haven’t gotten a Switch), Rhythm Heaven & Tomadachi Life are aimed at Japanese tastes and include families, causal, and younger demographics. 
Again Z-A is bigger but the hardware elasticity of the three mentioned are higher in late lifecycle context concerning the demographics mentioned.

Jan usually and sells less than Dec, Nov, Sept & Mar (I think 2025 was a different scenario with people holding off for Switch 2). Jan usually and consistently sells above the rest of the months, ranking Jan 4th/5th out of 12. The lowest months are usually May and Jun. So I understand your remark about Apr-Jun, I think that software releasing will help it. But let’s continue with the idea that Apr-Jun won’t sell more than Jan-Mar. For that I’ll make a revision.

Jan-Mar 189k. Apr-Jun 150k. Jul-Sept ~290k. Oct-Dec ~360k

Jul-Sept has a 23% increase which isn’t impossible, we saw that consoles beforehand have had an increase as well selling alongside their successor (though it’s more closer to +5% YoY). Since the Switch is in a coexistence market with the Switch 2 we could see such an increase and is plausible.

Hope that helped.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 25 October 2025