rapsuperstar31 said:
I expect the next Xbox to come out early like the Dreamcast and have the same fate. |
In all fairness, even with diminishing market viability for Xbox consoles from the 360 days, Microsoft Gaming/Microsoft as a whole has effectively limitless coffers.
Microsoft as a whole makes insane revenue and profits, in addition to their war chests. Microsoft Gaming is highly profitable as well, thanks to the blurring of lines on PC and Xbox consoles.
Xbox could get down to 10-20 million units sold of a console during its lifetime and still be able to fund another console because it's Microsoft.
Nintendo could've had several Wii U failures in a row, though that would terrify Nintendo. They're even more fiscally conservative with gaming historically compared to their competitors and they really want high profits for hardware and software.
Sega's console division went the way of the dodo because of massive financial losses and bankruptcy looming that would've damaged or outright shuttered Sega. Sega did not have the money to keep supporting the Dreamcast, let alone make a new console to launch in 2004-2005.
And responding to the thread title, I would say yes.
Switch 2 has a 99% chance of coming out in 2025. The rumors, leaks, some words from Nintendo, and some of the output of Switch seems to indicate so. Now Switch is getting far better support right now than I would've expected, but that doesn't mean it's not going to be replaced next year. Even Nintendo's AAA games tend to be AA in the industry. I would argue 2024 has had no AAA Nintendo games. Do you really consider TTYD Remake, Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom and Super Mario Party Jamboree AAA Nintendo games? I don't. There's no 3D Zelda, Xenoblade Chronicles, 3D Mario, etc.
Xbox 5 is probably coming out in 2026 but could come out in 2027. PS6 could come out in 2027 or 2028. I'm more split on PS6's odds whereas Xbox really seems to be leaning towards 2026. They want to beat Sony to the punch by a year or two.
TLDR: Switch 2: 2025, Xbox 5: 2026 PS6: 2027-2028
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima