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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lifetime sales predictions for current consoles?

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pajderman said:

I can agree with this point somewhat, but I think that the gen will last longer than usually. Mostly because the rate of high profile game releases gets lower.  

By 2027 the PS5 is at risk of being just as fast as an AMD APU (and I don't mean the Strix Halo which should come late this year/early next year and already beat the PS5), meaning 720p-1080p low would be standard PS5 settings by then. On a big TV that lack of visual fidelity will be absolutely visible.

Switch can get away with those things due to being a handheld system (and even then it has it's limits, Mortal Kombat 1, anyone?), but a console whose entire premise is it's graphical prowess? I seriously doubt that.

I think diminishing returns on that power increase will make it a harder sell. In the demo of PS5 pro it was very hard to see any difference. They will need to use benchmarks or something other than just show the visuals. 



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PS5 -> 115mil
XBSX -> 58mil (GTAVI will send Xbox sales to the stratosphere, though maybe not as high as for PS5.)
NSW -> 156mil

Last edited by firebush03 - on 29 September 2024

Pajderman said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

By 2027 the PS5 is at risk of being just as fast as an AMD APU (and I don't mean the Strix Halo which should come late this year/early next year and already beat the PS5), meaning 720p-1080p low would be standard PS5 settings by then. On a big TV that lack of visual fidelity will be absolutely visible.

Switch can get away with those things due to being a handheld system (and even then it has it's limits, Mortal Kombat 1, anyone?), but a console whose entire premise is it's graphical prowess? I seriously doubt that.

I think diminishing returns on that power increase will make it a harder sell. In the demo of PS5 pro it was very hard to see any difference. They will need to use benchmarks or something other than just show the visuals. 

It was hard to see because many things are holding the PS5 Pro back:

  1. Only a GPU upgrade, the Zen 2 CPU is pretty slow by today's standards. The small clock speed increase doesn't do much to address any CPU limitations, especially in performance mode.
  2. RAM still only 16GB, which is pretty small. It already wasn't big when the PS5 came out, but the need for RAM and VRAM went up sharply since then. Which means smaller, more compressed (and thus less detailed) textures and less details overall. It being clocked faster doesn't help in that regard.
  3. The overall performance increase is pretty small with just 45%. The PS4 Pro managed almost double that over the PS4.
  4. Old games, many even PS4 being originally PS4 titles. There wasn't much to improve in those titles to begin with.
  5. And of course, spotty YouTube compression didn't help when it came to noticing the difference.

Had Sony chosen to increase the RAM to 24 or even 32GB and updated the CPU to at least Zen 3 with a slightly smaller GPU, I'm sure it would look markedly better for the same price.



NSW 162.89mil
PS5 97.652mil
XBXS 50.247mil



Switch!!!

PS5: 105M
XBS: 42M
NSW: 155M

All numbers are a bit on the lower end, so +5M for every console is possible I guess.



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Tbh we might be underestimating the PS5/SeriesX sales a bit. Yea sales for those consoles are slower than the previous gen but I feel like GTA 6 could be huge enough and singlehandedly change that. Probably the most anticipated game in history and will be exclusive to consoles for nearly a year before it goes to PC, and it's gonna be a next gen exclusive giving PS4/XboxOne owners a true reason to finally upgrade, sales been a bit slower for next gem adoption because of how many cross gen games there are at this point.



Switch 155m

PS5 115m

Xbox Series 45m



Switch: 159-166 million (161 million)
PS5: 109-118 million (115 million)
Xbox Series: 44-49 million (48 million)
PS5 only sells under Wii and PS1 if the PlayStation brand takes a notable hit in positive perception. There's almost no chance PS6 comes out before November 2027, and there's a good chance it takes until November 2028. PS5 is still the flagship PlayStation for years from now and even if PS4 hasn't been discontinued yet, it's selling virtually nothing by comparison anyway to affect PS5 sales. I wouldn't put it past Sony to announce this year that PS4 was discontinued in mid to late 2023, or even early 2024. It's not exactly easy to find new PS4 consoles. 

Additionally, even though there are used PS5s out there, GTA VI will move millions of PS5 units, even if under 10 million. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Should of bought a Switch. Loads of classic AAA Nintendo exclusives on that console. Why buy a Sony and a Microsoft console?? Daft combination considering for the best part they both share the same games.



High specs doesn't make good games. Elden Ring and Tears of the Kingdom were near perfect, how would better specs have improved those games in terms of experience??