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Forums - Sales Discussion - Astro-Bot or Zelda EoW? Clash of the 2024 September Titans

 

Which will sell more? Which will perform better with critics?

Astro Bot (Sales & Critical Reception) 20 20.83%
 
Zelda (Sales & Critical Reception) 32 33.33%
 
Astro Bot (Sales), Zelda (Critical Reception) 3 3.13%
 
Astro Bot (Critical Reception), Zelda (Sales) 41 42.71%
 
Total:96
firebush03 said:
curl-6 said:

Astro Bot has sold 1.5 million as of November 3rd, so in a little under 2 months:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463015/astro-bot-sales-top-15-million-units/

Echoes by contrast was at 2.58m (shipped + digital) in its first 5 days:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/462985/switch-ships-14604-million-units-as-of-september-2024/

These are criminal figures for Astro. Sony’s most critically acclaimed first-party release *of all time* can’t even crack 2mil? The Sony base needs to get their priorities straightened out, this is insanity. I knew launch figures would be low, but not this low.

These numbers will explode with the holiday season, I have no doubt. I remain optimistic for Astro.

Who told you it's Sony most critically acclaimed game of all time? Lol.

Having a 94 on Metacritic it matches God of War original Greek debut game and it's original Norse follow up, loses to The Last of Us, Little Big Planet and Gran Turismo debut games, also loses to Gran Turismo 3 and Uncharted 2.

Based on accolades and general awards it will probably not come even close to The Last of Us, and TLoU released on the same year as the most popular game of all time, GTA V.

That being said, 1.5M sales is in the range I expected, and I do not expect it to have massive legs just by itself, as I said, I would be happy if the game reaches 5M sales in the end.

Amazing game, definitely deserved way more, but there is nothing surprising here.



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TheRealSamusAran said:
Otter said:

This is a pretty silly argument to make.

Helldivers was a smaller IP until it had a breakout hit and sold 12m in 12 weeks.

Astro "outsold pretty much every platformer besides Mario" in its openning month in Europe. So it is a breakout hit in its genre, a genre that relies on legs rather than big openings.

Now I think almost everyone is expecting Zelda to have a stronger start, I don't think we need to continually reiterate the obvious that Zelda is a bigger IP. 

But non-mainline Zelda is not some crazy seller. A Links Awakening was last recorded at <7m... Ratchet and Clank 2016 has sold 7m. Equally Hyrule Warriors has been outsold by Rift Apart.

History favours Zelda winning this race, but there are many variables that could see Astro outpacing it not only Lifetime but even this Christmas. There will be no conclusion to this topic yet and words like "impossible" simply do not apply. 

Helldivers released on PlayStation and Steam simultaneously, and sold more on Steam, where online shooters are VERY popular. Also, if Astro didn't sell more than every platformer outside of Mario I would consider it a Concord level of failure lol, can you name any other AAA 3D platformer in the year of our lord 2024? All we have is indie titles made for a market niche.

The remarks about it outselling those non-Mario games is not in 2024, but from the last 10 years.

In the UK it during its launch it sold better than any Sonic or Crash, releases in the last 10 years, which are very popular and liked franchises, released as multiplatformers. Also sold better than Kirby which is a beloved Nintendo platformer.

It was quite the feat.



BraLoD said:
firebush03 said:

These are criminal figures for Astro. Sony’s most critically acclaimed first-party release *of all time* can’t even crack 2mil? The Sony base needs to get their priorities straightened out, this is insanity. I knew launch figures would be low, but not this low.

These numbers will explode with the holiday season, I have no doubt. I remain optimistic for Astro.

Who told you it's Sony most critically acclaimed game of all time? Lol.

Having a 94 on Metacritic it matches God of War original Greek debut game and it's original Norse follow up, loses to The Last of Us, Little Big Planet and Gran Turismo debut games, also loses to Gran Turismo 3 and Uncharted 2.

Based on accolades and general awards it will probably not come even close to The Last of Us, and TLoU released on the same year as the most popular game of all time, GTA V.

prolly should’ve added: According to OpenCritic. Only first-party Sony title to ever hit 95. It seems to be sitting in 6th on MC. As far as awards are concerned, that’s a but irrelevant to my initial remark, though I agree it won’t receive anywhere near the same level of praise of many PlayStation games (for the obv reason that platformers almost never receive any recognition in these situations).



I haven't purchased either yet, will probably get both as Christmas gifts this year, so I will add a +1 to both sales charts.



TheRealSamusAran said:
Otter said:

This is a pretty silly argument to make.

Helldivers was a smaller IP until it had a breakout hit and sold 12m in 12 weeks.

Astro "outsold pretty much every platformer besides Mario" in its openning month in Europe. So it is a breakout hit in its genre, a genre that relies on legs rather than big openings.

Now I think almost everyone is expecting Zelda to have a stronger start, I don't think we need to continually reiterate the obvious that Zelda is a bigger IP. 

But non-mainline Zelda is not some crazy seller. A Links Awakening was last recorded at <7m... Ratchet and Clank 2016 has sold 7m. Equally Hyrule Warriors has been outsold by Rift Apart.

History favours Zelda winning this race, but there are many variables that could see Astro outpacing it not only Lifetime but even this Christmas. There will be no conclusion to this topic yet and words like "impossible" simply do not apply. 

Helldivers released on PlayStation and Steam simultaneously, and sold more on Steam, where online shooters are VERY popular. Also, if Astro didn't sell more than every platformer outside of Mario I would consider it a Concord level of failure lol, can you name any other AAA 3D platformer in the year of our lord 2024? All we have is indie titles made for a market niche.

I think you're loosing sight of the point. 

"it would be impossible for Astro Bot, a small Sony IP to outsell a bigger Nintendo IP like Zelda, it hasn't happened in the entire Switch generation."

Helldivers was a smaller sony IP. It has sold a lot on PS5, well beyond the IP's original estimation, around a minimum of 4m in 3months and its still charting on PSN chart, it could be at 7m or 8m by now but Sony hasn't updated the number. There is no "impossible" in this conversation, there is always obviously potential for titles to overperform and for franchises to have breakout hits. I mean would anyone of expected Zelda BOTW to approach 30m in sales back in 2017?

Considering Sonys last 2 major platformers have sold 4m & 7m, it is not "impossible" for Astro to reach the 7-8m range which would make it competitive with this branch of Zelda on Switch. It was already tracking ahead of the 4m selling title (Rift Apart) so that is the sensible floor for its sales.

With the second point, you ignored my key point about platformers depending on legs. Crash Trilogy & It Takes Two have sold 20m each, Spyro Trilogy 10m, Crash 4, 5m...  but that isn't reflected in huge openings but simply through having strong legs. Astro having a strong start for its genre is in fact a good indication it can go on to do big numbers.

Last edited by Otter - on 08 November 2024

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firebush03 said:

These are criminal figures for Astro. Sony’s most critically acclaimed first-party release *of all time* can’t even crack 2mil? The Sony base needs to get their priorities straightened out, this is insanity. I knew launch figures would be low, but not this low.

These numbers will explode with the holiday season, I have no doubt. I remain optimistic for Astro.

I think it's closer to 2M shipped. 

But I wouldn't worry too much about Astro's sales. It's tapping into a new audience for Sony and its the front runner for Game of the Year. 



killer7 said:
HoloDust said:

No 3D Mario ever sold 30 millions, let alone new IP on a platform that is not known for such audience to sell 40 millions.

As I said, crazy talk.

I never said that. The best selling 3D Mario is Odeysey with 28,50 million i think (?). It could get there. I was only refering to some funny people claiming Astro would wipe the floor with Mario (youtube comments), yet it is on track with Mario Kart 8 for WiiU. I do not think anyone including me expected numbers this low.

Never said you did - I was just pointing out that not even any Mario 3D platformer sold 30 millions (so far), so new 3D platformer IP on Sony console to reach 40 millions is just crazy talk, whoever made such claim.



firebush03 said:

These are criminal figures for Astro. Sony’s most critically acclaimed first-party release *of all time* can’t even crack 2mil? The Sony base needs to get their priorities straightened out, this is insanity. I knew launch figures would be low, but not this low.

These numbers will explode with the holiday season, I have no doubt. I remain optimistic for Astro.

Let's be honest: platformers reached their peak popularity in the 80s and 90s. However, most of Sony current fanbase (read as those who buy first-party Sony games) has been built from the PS3 era onward. While fans from the PS1 and PS2 days like me are still around and many of us still enjoy platformers, we're probably not the target audience for Sony first-party releases today. At least two generations of gamers have now grown up in an environment where platformers aren't seen as particularly exciting or relevant

I see this difference reflected in my own social circle. My boyfriend, for example, tried Astro Bot for about 30 minutes but then dropped it, finding the gameplay loop of platformers to be boring and aimless. My younger cousins, ages 19 and 14, didn't like it either. The 19-yo cousin prefers simulation games like Animal Crossing or The Sims, while the 14-yo likes sandbox games like Minecraft. Neither of them fit the hardcore gamer type, unlike my boyfriend, who plays a lot of games. Interestingly, my 46yo uncle (a heavy gamer) loved Astro Bot, calling it his GOTY lol 

This generational split highlights how certain genres have more lasting appeal among specific demographics, and that's okay. For example, JRPGs also don't have the high sales numbers of other genres, Fighting games will never sell 30 million like Hogwarts Legacy, but they still maintain a devoted following

That said, I think Astro Bot will still perform well. Three million sales are almost on lock imo, and if it does well during award season, it has a good chance of selling even more. I still believe it will cross 5 million, and 5 million for a platformer is a lot

Last edited by IcaroRibeiro - on 08 November 2024

There was a slide during the Q&A presentation that showed a wild stat, which was that 37% of people that purchased Astro hadn't purchased any other FP software in the past two years.



Otter said:
TheRealSamusAran said:

Helldivers released on PlayStation and Steam simultaneously, and sold more on Steam, where online shooters are VERY popular. Also, if Astro didn't sell more than every platformer outside of Mario I would consider it a Concord level of failure lol, can you name any other AAA 3D platformer in the year of our lord 2024? All we have is indie titles made for a market niche.

I think you're loosing sight of the point. 

"it would be impossible for Astro Bot, a small Sony IP to outsell a bigger Nintendo IP like Zelda, it hasn't happened in the entire Switch generation."

Helldivers was a smaller sony IP. It has sold a lot on PS5, well beyond the IP's original estimation, around a minimum of 4m in 3months and its still charting on PSN chart, it could be at 7m or 8m by now but Sony hasn't updated the number. There is no "impossible" in this conversation, there is always obviously potential for titles to overperform and for franchises to have breakout hits. I mean would anyone of expected Zelda BOTW to approach 30m in sales back in 2017?

Considering Sonys last 2 major platformers have sold 4m & 7m, it is not "impossible" for Astro to reach the 7-8m range which would make it competitive with this branch of Zelda on Switch. It was already tracking ahead of the 4m selling title (Rift Apart) so that is the sensible floor for its sales.

With the second point, you ignored my key point about platformers depending on legs. Crash Trilogy & It Takes Two have sold 20m each, Spyro Trilogy 10m, Crash 4, 5m...  but that isn't reflected in huge openings but simply through having strong legs. Astro having a strong start for its genre is in fact a good indication it can go on to do big numbers.

Yup, people are really getting ahead of themselves with Astro. This is not an JRPG which generaly have frontloaded sales. 1.5 million opening is actually very decent, not world-shaterring but definitely a good start. Sony first party games generally sell well over time as Sony can keep bundling them and using them in promotional campaings for years 

One thing can happen to cut Astro legs though. Sony can offer it for free in their PS Plus subscription