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Otter on 08 November 2024
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TheRealSamusAran said:
Otter said:

This is a pretty silly argument to make.

Helldivers was a smaller IP until it had a breakout hit and sold 12m in 12 weeks.

Astro "outsold pretty much every platformer besides Mario" in its openning month in Europe. So it is a breakout hit in its genre, a genre that relies on legs rather than big openings.

Now I think almost everyone is expecting Zelda to have a stronger start, I don't think we need to continually reiterate the obvious that Zelda is a bigger IP. 

But non-mainline Zelda is not some crazy seller. A Links Awakening was last recorded at <7m... Ratchet and Clank 2016 has sold 7m. Equally Hyrule Warriors has been outsold by Rift Apart.

History favours Zelda winning this race, but there are many variables that could see Astro outpacing it not only Lifetime but even this Christmas. There will be no conclusion to this topic yet and words like "impossible" simply do not apply. 

Helldivers released on PlayStation and Steam simultaneously, and sold more on Steam, where online shooters are VERY popular. Also, if Astro didn't sell more than every platformer outside of Mario I would consider it a Concord level of failure lol, can you name any other AAA 3D platformer in the year of our lord 2024? All we have is indie titles made for a market niche.

I think you're loosing sight of the point. 

"it would be impossible for Astro Bot, a small Sony IP to outsell a bigger Nintendo IP like Zelda, it hasn't happened in the entire Switch generation."

Helldivers was a smaller sony IP. It has sold a lot on PS5, well beyond the IP's original estimation, around a minimum of 4m in 3months and its still charting on PSN chart, it could be at 7m or 8m by now but Sony hasn't updated the number. There is no "impossible" in this conversation, there is always obviously potential for titles to overperform and for franchises to have breakout hits. I mean would anyone of expected Zelda BOTW to approach 30m in sales back in 2017?

Considering Sonys last 2 major platformers have sold 4m & 7m, it is not "impossible" for Astro to reach the 7-8m range which would make it competitive with this branch of Zelda on Switch. It was already tracking ahead of the 4m selling title (Rift Apart) so that is the sensible floor for its sales.

With the second point, you ignored my key point about platformers depending on legs. Crash Trilogy & It Takes Two have sold 20m each, Spyro Trilogy 10m, Crash 4, 5m...  but that isn't reflected in huge openings but simply through having strong legs. Astro having a strong start for its genre is in fact a good indication it can go on to do big numbers.

Last edited by Otter - on 08 November 2024