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Forums - Sales Discussion - Astro-Bot or Zelda EoW? Clash of the 2024 September Titans

 

Which will sell more? Which will perform better with critics?

Astro Bot (Sales & Critical Reception) 20 20.83%
 
Zelda (Sales & Critical Reception) 32 33.33%
 
Astro Bot (Sales), Zelda (Critical Reception) 3 3.13%
 
Astro Bot (Critical Reception), Zelda (Sales) 41 42.71%
 
Total:96
BraLoD on 06 November 2024
Otter said:
BraLoD said:

Honestly don't see how Astro Bot will end up outselling EoW, it's likely losing already, and unless there is some kind of resurgence for the game down the road, which I can't really see, the only other factor would be Switch 2 suddenly taking over completely the attention from the Switch from the get go and people start ignoring the game, which don't seem too likely either.

So aside from Astro getting a good PS5/Pro bundle, I doubt that race will even end up being close.

Astro still has a generation ahead of it of being the premiere PlayStation platformer. If EOW performs similarly to the past isometric zelda which sold 3.1m in 1month, and then another 2m for the rest of its life, its legs will not be extended much beyond this year. With or without Switch 2, it's fair to perceive that next year its sales will off whereas Astro has the potential to have much longer legs. 

If we take the UK for example, on the retail charts Astro (which disproportionately digital) has moved from No.12-No.15 in the last 3 weeks (-2 spots). Zelda has moved from No.6-No.11 (-5spots). Astro is showing more stability and is probably coming close to tying it for the week in total sales when accounting for digital. If much of Europe/US reflects this, that is the logic by which Astro wins the long game even with Japan deeply in Zelda's favour. 

I don't think the number of spots games are going down weekly in the UK has any weight when we don't even know what the difference between any of those spots are, simply being more numbers down doesn't necessarily means losing more total or average sales.

If Astro Bot start outranking it consistently than yeah, that means at least there it's retaining sales better.

As you pointed, there is no competition in Japan and even as that scenario is unlike to represent many other markets, at least that widely, it is also a decent advantage that Astro will never take back from Zelda and would need to outperform it in other regions to counter it.

Astro Bot is certainly a more impactful game for the PS5 than Zelda EoW is for the Switch, but the brand appeal and install base are heavily in Zelda's favor.



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Sephiran on 06 November 2024

Given that Astro Bot sold nothing in Japan compared to Echoes which sold 500,000 in Japan during the first five days and seems to sell less than Echoes of Wisdom in the west as well, that means that if Echoes of Wisdom sold 2,5 million copies in its first 5 days, Astro Bot likely sold around 1 million or so in the same time at most.



GymratAmarillo on 06 November 2024
Sephiran said:

Given that Astro Bot sold nothing in Japan compared to Echoes which sold 500,000 in Japan during the first five days and seems to sell less than Echoes of Wisdom in the west as well, that means that if Echoes of Wisdom sold 2,5 million copies in its first 5 days, Astro Bot likely sold around 1 million or so in the same time at most.

It's already confirmed that in the US and Europe Astro sold more than Zelda till the first half of October. If people are going to discuss about sales for the next year then yeah Zelda has a big chance to sell more because of the Switch 2, Holidays and many other factors starting for the playerbase.

Btw, Japan is no indication of anything sales related outside Nintendo lol. Helldivers 2 sold like 3k copies over there on release week and in its first 3 days it sold 1 million in the rest of the world mostly on ps5, the pc explosion started on week 2.

Last edited by GymratAmarillo - on 06 November 2024

Sephiran on 07 November 2024
GymratAmarillo said:
Sephiran said:

Given that Astro Bot sold nothing in Japan compared to Echoes which sold 500,000 in Japan during the first five days and seems to sell less than Echoes of Wisdom in the west as well, that means that if Echoes of Wisdom sold 2,5 million copies in its first 5 days, Astro Bot likely sold around 1 million or so in the same time at most.

It's already confirmed that in the US and Europe Astro sold more than Zelda till the first half of October. If people are going to discuss about sales for the next year then yeah Zelda has a big chance to sell more because of the Switch 2, Holidays and many other factors starting for the playerbase.

Btw, Japan is no indication of anything sales related outside Nintendo lol. Helldivers 2 sold like 3k copies over there on release week and in its first 3 days it sold 1 million in the rest of the world mostly on ps5, the pc explosion started on week 2.

No its not confirmed that Astro Bot sold more than Echoes of Wisdom in the west. All we know is that digital and physical sales over a longer period of time were higher for Astro Bot than just physical sales for Echoes of Wisdom. In all likelihood Echoes of Wisdom sold more in the west as well, and we will get that confirmation at a later date anyway.

Sony first party games don't outsell Nintendo first party games in general, so it would be impossible for Astro Bot, a small Sony IP to outsell a bigger Nintendo IP like Zelda, it hasn't happened in the entire Switch generation. The reason is simple; Playstation is a Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and FIFA machine, while people buy Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games.



Otter on 07 November 2024

DP



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Otter on 07 November 2024
Sephiran said:

No its not confirmed that Astro Bot sold more than Echoes of Wisdom in the west. All we know is that digital and physical sales over a longer period of time were higher for Astro Bot than just physical sales for Echoes of Wisdom. In all likelihood Echoes of Wisdom sold more in the west as well, and we will get that confirmation at a later date anyway.

Sony first party games don't outsell Nintendo first party games in general, so it would be impossible for Astro Bot, a small Sony IP to outsell a bigger Nintendo IP like Zelda, it hasn't happened in the entire Switch generation. The reason is simple; Playstation is a Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and FIFA machine, while people buy Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games.

This is a pretty silly argument to make.

Helldivers was a smaller IP until it had a breakout hit and sold 12m in 12 weeks.

Astro "outsold pretty much every platformer besides Mario" in its openning month in Europe. So it is a breakout hit in its genre, a genre that relies on legs rather than big openings.

Now I think almost everyone is expecting Zelda to have a stronger start, I don't think we need to continually reiterate the obvious that Zelda is a bigger IP. 

But non-mainline Zelda is not some crazy seller. A Links Awakening was last recorded at <7m... Ratchet and Clank 2016 has sold 7m. Equally Hyrule Warriors has been outsold by Rift Apart.

History favours Zelda winning this race, but there are many variables that could see Astro outpacing it not only Lifetime but even this Christmas. There will be no conclusion to this topic yet and words like "impossible" simply do not apply. 



killer7 on 07 November 2024
HoloDust said:
killer7 said:

...posts especially in other forums where people swore Astro Bot would take Mario's Place, put out some crazy numbers like 40 million+ and how it would rape it.

Would really love to see those posts from those forums - only someone who is either completely out of touch or completely insane would make such a claim.

Even if it was reskinned to be Mario game and put on Switch it wouldn't sell anywhere near that.

Just go to youtube. People over there swore it would be the "Mario of the future". There would be even underware, T Shirts, all stuff of merchant. Astro kart, Astro Tennis, Astro brawler, Tennis, Golf... So many crazy ideas. The most interesting comment i read is that there would be something like Super Nintendo World, just from Sony and Astro would be the main attraction. 

I mean thats like comparing Justin Bieber (Astro Bot) to the Rolling Stones (Mario)🤣



HoloDust on 08 November 2024
killer7 said:
HoloDust said:

Would really love to see those posts from those forums - only someone who is either completely out of touch or completely insane would make such a claim.

Even if it was reskinned to be Mario game and put on Switch it wouldn't sell anywhere near that.

Just go to youtube. People over there swore it would be the "Mario of the future". There would be even underware, T Shirts, all stuff of merchant. Astro kart, Astro Tennis, Astro brawler, Tennis, Golf... So many crazy ideas. The most interesting comment i read is that there would be something like Super Nintendo World, just from Sony and Astro would be the main attraction. 

I mean thats like comparing Justin Bieber (Astro Bot) to the Rolling Stones (Mario)🤣

No 3D Mario ever sold 30 millions, let alone new IP on a platform that is not known for such audience to sell 40 millions.

As I said, crazy talk.



curl-6 on 08 November 2024

Astro Bot has sold 1.5 million as of November 3rd, so in a little under 2 months:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463015/astro-bot-sales-top-15-million-units/

Echoes by contrast was at 2.58m (shipped + digital) in its first 5 days:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/462985/switch-ships-14604-million-units-as-of-september-2024/



Otter on 08 November 2024
curl-6 said:

Astro Bot has sold 1.5 million as of November 3rd, so in a little under 2 months:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463015/astro-bot-sales-top-15-million-units/

Echoes by contrast was at 2.58m (shipped + digital) in its first 5 days:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/462985/switch-ships-14604-million-units-as-of-september-2024/

1.5m is more what I would've expected in its first month. 

A solid start from Astro but in order to compete with Zelda it'd need to remain charting well into next year and Zelda would have to fall off.