Astro-Bot or Zelda EoW? Clash of the 2024 September Titans

[BraLoD]

Otter said:

BraLoD said:

Honestly don't see how Astro Bot will end up outselling EoW, it's likely losing already, and unless there is some kind of resurgence for the game down the road, which I can't really see, the only other factor would be Switch 2 suddenly taking over completely the attention from the Switch from the get go and people start ignoring the game, which don't seem too likely either.

So aside from Astro getting a good PS5/Pro bundle, I doubt that race will even end up being close.

Astro still has a generation ahead of it of being the premiere PlayStation platformer. If EOW performs similarly to the past isometric zelda which sold 3.1m in 1month, and then another 2m for the rest of its life, its legs will not be extended much beyond this year. With or without Switch 2, it's fair to perceive that next year its sales will off whereas Astro has the potential to have much longer legs. 

If we take the UK for example, on the retail charts Astro (which disproportionately digital) has moved from No.12-No.15 in the last 3 weeks (-2 spots). Zelda has moved from No.6-No.11 (-5spots). Astro is showing more stability and is probably coming close to tying it for the week in total sales when accounting for digital. If much of Europe/US reflects this, that is the logic by which Astro wins the long game even with Japan deeply in Zelda's favour. 

I don't think the number of spots games are going down weekly in the UK has any weight when we don't even know what the difference between any of those spots are, simply being more numbers down doesn't necessarily means losing more total or average sales.

If Astro Bot start outranking it consistently than yeah, that means at least there it's retaining sales better.

As you pointed, there is no competition in Japan and even as that scenario is unlike to represent many other markets, at least that widely, it is also a decent advantage that Astro will never take back from Zelda and would need to outperform it in other regions to counter it.

Astro Bot is certainly a more impactful game for the PS5 than Zelda EoW is for the Switch, but the brand appeal and install base are heavily in Zelda's favor.