No one should underestimate how dumb American voters can be.

That being said, however, polls are consistently Trump running 5-10 points ahead of every Republican senate candidate in all swing states. Most mainstream polls are also just a few points to the left of Trafalgar instead of double digits like the last election. This indicates they are massively overweighting Trump responses like these most blatant R pollsters do. Lingering systemic errors might not only have been corrected but perhaps even overcorrected

2022 might be another hint in that regard since polls were broadly accurate and favored Democrats in every toss-up. 2018 polls were the opposite - despite the huge blue wave, Republicans outperformed almost everywhere.

The 2020 polls were actually pretty decent. They were close in most states. The only ones that were more than like a percent off were Wisconsin, Florida, and I think Texas actually. So, I don't really know what to make of them.

You mentioned Trafalgar and oddly enough their polls make me the most hopeful. They show almost a dead even race in most of the swing states, which if history is correct, would indicate that Harris would win all of them. 

The average was Biden +8 in Michigan and Wisconsin, +5 in Pennsylvania, and +1 in Florida. WI and MI were the worst ones. PA for some reason polled consistently to the right of the midwestern swing states (both in 2020 and now) despite being bluer than WI.

Of course, it's hard to say how much the pandemic influenced turnout. It's possible that it handicapped Biden to an extent on election day despite the already huge turnout (case in point: cities swinging right in 2020 vs. 2016). So all the poll correcting now might not be quite precise.

Can't see any other way than this election being close based on past trends, the polling data and it ultimately coming down to a few states, I also don't think the debate will change much, it could provide a minor boost either way but it was my understanding that debates most of the time don't affect polling much, unless it's an absolute disaster like Biden exposing how old he is which was already becoming a problem.

Harris will likely beat Trump in the debates but Trump will do his typical Trump shit where he spits out 200 lies a minute and has Harris trying to counter those lies whilst confusing viewers on what to believe, basically the Russian approach of throwing so much shit out into the public that it doesn't matter what people believe, it's just about poisoning the information sphere and confusing everyone. Dems will say Harris won, Trump's cult will say he won, independents will think it was a mess because news orgs won't moderate properly and won't live fact check him.

I've  seen people on reddit mention that most major poling changed the way they approach things in 2022 and Democrats beat out polls in most cases.  Polling had Shapiro winning the PA governor 52% to 41.6% and he won it by 56.5% to 41.7%  I find it hard to belie PA would elect a democrat governor over a maga candidate in 2022 by 792,660 votes is gong to go with Trump in 2024.  Poling had democrat Whitmer at a +4.8 to win governor in Michigan in 2022 and she won by +10.9 or 469,674.  Polling had democrat Tony Evers losing in the polls 48.7% to 48.4% and Evers won it 51.2% to 47.78% by 90,701 votes.

There was was a school shooting at a high school in Winder, GA, northeast of Atlanta. There were four dead (2 teachers, 2 students, and several others injured, with 14 y/o suspect Colt Gray taken into custody. He will be tried as an adult. 
What we know about the shooting in Apalachee High School in Georgia

Right on cue,Fox goes straight to blaming video games.

They should blame violent video games and movies.  Any entertainment these days that glorifies violence is too much for today's dumbass kids to handle.

Maybe this one will form a question for next Tuesday's debate....

And you know what the likely answer will be: "We need better mental health care in the USA".............LOL!

"It's not a gun problem it's a mental health problem."

"Ok. So we should have universal mental health services?"

"Stfu communist."

Other countries have the same video games and movies that glorify violence, yet they don't have nearly as many shootings. The operative word here is shootings. What do you need in order to shoot someone? Maybe that's the problem...

My thoughts and prayers go out to you.