| sundin13 said: Agreed. It is hard to square the vibes with the fact that the race is tied and Kamala has no polling momentum. Part of me wants to reconcile that by just saying "Well, polls have underestimated Dems since Dobbs, so it's probably better for Kamala than it looks", but I don't know if I can even convince myself of that... |
No one should underestimate how dumb American voters can be.
That being said, however, polls are consistently Trump running 5-10 points ahead of every Republican senate candidate in all swing states. Most mainstream polls are also just a few points to the left of Trafalgar instead of double digits like the last election. This indicates they are massively overweighting Trump responses like these most blatant R pollsters do. Lingering systemic errors might not only have been corrected but perhaps even overcorrected
2022 might be another hint in that regard since polls were broadly accurate and favored Democrats in every toss-up. 2018 polls were the opposite - despite the huge blue wave, Republicans outperformed almost everywhere.
