JWeinCom said:
sundin13 said:
I feel like Trump's base will just say "it's 4D chess" to excuse things like his flip-flopping. I think they trust Trump almost implicitly as a person, so they believe that he will do what they want regardless of what he says. They know that politics is a game and they see him playing the game. Even when he loses that is part of the plan. The fence sitters I don't think will really be won over by Trump's capitulations, so I do feel like it keeps focus on Trump's worst issues which is bad for him. I don't think it will really make a difference though. My concern data wise is that the polling is incredibly close. While I don't really believe in the "Kamala honeymoon" theory, I do think that Trump has as much of an opportunity as she does to shape her political identity. She has thus far been winning that war, but it is concerning how close things were at the best times. A small polling error in the Republicans favor given today's polling could easily hand Trump the victory. We'll see how things look after the debate. If she destroys him or gets destroyed I think we can see a real swing, but in all likelihood, each fanbase will insist that their candidate won and nothing will really change, leaving us with a coin toss in two months. |
The polling data is concerning. Their doesn't need to be a polling error even, all of the swing states are within the margin of error. Particularly in Wisconsin, the race is super close. For the past two presidential elections, Democrats were overestimated in WI. That doesn't mean it will necessarily be the same, but it is concerning.
Pennsylvania is also pretty much a dead heat. Another state where Biden/Clinton were overestimated, and probably the most important state in the election. If she loses those states, then Harris will need some combination of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Either one or two of them. Currently, those are all coin flips.
So, yeah, I'm not crazy optimistic right now. If you look at what's happening outside the polls, one would think Kamala should win in a landslide, but obviously Trump voters see the world very differently, so I don't know how they'll respond. |
Agreed. It is hard to square the vibes with the fact that the race is tied and Kamala has no polling momentum. Part of me wants to reconcile that by just saying "Well, polls have underestimated Dems since Dobbs, so it's probably better for Kamala than it looks", but I don't know if I can even convince myself of that...
I've got my fingers crossed tight that the debate goes well, but if not, the next two months is going to be stressful.
As a side note, here is a link to volunteer opportunities: Volunteer | Kamala Harris for President
I've never done any of that stuff before but I'm seriously considering it.
