2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

sundin13 said:

RolStoppable said:

I assume that your counter-point to the optimism is the long history of American stupidity. I admit, you win the argument if that's the case.

In the past few months I've been watching videos of CNN and MSNBC on YouTube every now and then. I suspect many people would say that MSNBC has a democratic lean if not bias, but I'd call it plain common sense. Channels like Fox News and Newsmax are obviously right wing pundits, so there's no point to bother. What surprised me about CNN, however, is that they are trying to play both sides. For one, they have that Republican guy on their panels who is against everything the Democratic party does by default. And two, there are times when they legitimate Trump campaign nonsense by treating it as if it isn't obvious bullshit.

So... the point is, if this is how TV in general shapes the minds of its American viewers, then I can absolutely understand why the Democrats still consider themselves the underdogs in this presidential race.

Going forward, what I expect is that Trump will do more of the flip-flopping he has done recently, most prominently on the topic of abortion. It's not that Harris will get more votes because of this, but rather that Trump's base can crumble a bit. There are a few issues that are very important for American voters and if they eventually cannot trust Trump anymore to stand for what they stand for, what reason do they have left to vote for him. Sticking it to the Dems? Yeah, you win that argument too.

I feel like Trump's base will just say "it's 4D chess" to excuse things like his flip-flopping. I think they trust Trump almost implicitly as a person, so they believe that he will do what they want regardless of what he says. They know that politics is a game and they see him playing the game. Even when he loses that is part of the plan. The fence sitters I don't think will really be won over by Trump's capitulations, so I do feel like it keeps focus on Trump's worst issues which is bad for him. I don't think it will really make a difference though.

My concern data wise is that the polling is incredibly close. While I don't really believe in the "Kamala honeymoon" theory, I do think that Trump has as much of an opportunity as she does to shape her political identity. She has thus far been winning that war, but it is concerning how close things were at the best times. A small polling error in the Republicans favor given today's polling could easily hand Trump the victory.

We'll see how things look after the debate. If she destroys him or gets destroyed I think we can see a real swing, but in all likelihood, each fanbase will insist that their candidate won and nothing will really change, leaving us with a coin toss in two months. 

The polling data is concerning. Their doesn't need to be a polling error even, all of the swing states are within the margin of error. 

Particularly in Wisconsin, the race is super close. For the past two presidential elections, Democrats were overestimated in WI. That doesn't mean it will necessarily be the same, but it is concerning. 

Pennsylvania is also pretty much a dead heat. Another state where Biden/Clinton were overestimated, and probably the most important state in the election. 

If she loses those states, then Harris will need some combination of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Either one or two of them. Currently, those are all coin flips.

So, yeah, I'm not crazy optimistic right now. If you look at what's happening outside the polls, one would think Kamala should win in a landslide, but obviously Trump voters see the world very differently, so I don't know how they'll respond.