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haxxiy said:
No one should underestimate how dumb American voters can be. That being said, however, polls are consistently Trump running 5-10 points ahead of every Republican senate candidate in all swing states. Most mainstream polls are also just a few points to the left of Trafalgar instead of double digits like the last election. This indicates they are massively overweighting Trump responses like these most blatant R pollsters do. Lingering systemic errors might not only have been corrected but perhaps even overcorrected 2022 might be another hint in that regard since polls were broadly accurate and favored Democrats in every toss-up. 2018 polls were the opposite - despite the huge blue wave, Republicans outperformed almost everywhere. |
The 2020 polls were actually pretty decent. They were close in most states. The only ones that were more than like a percent off were Wisconsin, Florida, and I think Texas actually. So, I don't really know what to make of them.
You mentioned Trafalgar and oddly enough their polls make me the most hopeful. They show almost a dead even race in most of the swing states, which if history is correct, would indicate that Harris would win all of them.
