2024 US Presidential Election

[haxxiy]

JWeinCom said:

The 2020 polls were actually pretty decent. They were close in most states. The only ones that were more than like a percent off were Wisconsin, Florida, and I think Texas actually. So, I don't really know what to make of them.

You mentioned Trafalgar and oddly enough their polls make me the most hopeful. They show almost a dead even race in most of the swing states, which if history is correct, would indicate that Harris would win all of them. 

The average was Biden +8 in Michigan and Wisconsin, +5 in Pennsylvania, and +1 in Florida. WI and MI were the worst ones. PA for some reason polled consistently to the right of the midwestern swing states (both in 2020 and now) despite being bluer than WI.

Of course, it's hard to say how much the pandemic influenced turnout. It's possible that it handicapped Biden to an extent on election day despite the already huge turnout (case in point: cities swinging right in 2020 vs. 2016). So all the poll correcting now might not be quite precise.