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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

IkePoR said:
Cyran said:

In hindsight I think the moment Biden decided the run for reelection it ensure Trump victory. I could show the facts that the USA economy under Biden have thrive more than any other country on earth but at the end of the day it don't change the fact that many many people in the USA is suffering, that the vast majority of this country unless they getting help from parents cannot afford their first house and inflation have made life very difficult. No party in power have ever won the presidency when the majority of it citizen feel like the economy is bad.

Obama said Trump's economy was so good because of what Obama left him.

Waaaaait a second...

Hiku said:

I think a lot of this comes down to "egg price high" and people not realizing that Biden inherited and operated under Trump's economy, while Trump inherited Obama's.
Democrats fix the damage they do, but get the blame for it.

So in 4 years time, if Trump has clearly failed in his second term, when Reps blame Biden's economy, the Dems will just blame Trump.

Waaaaaait a second...



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EricHiggin said:
IkePoR said:

Obama said Trump's economy was so good because of what Obama left him.

Waaaaait a second...

Hiku said:

I think a lot of this comes down to "egg price high" and people not realizing that Biden inherited and operated under Trump's economy, while Trump inherited Obama's.
Democrats fix the damage they do, but get the blame for it.

So in 4 years time, if Trump has clearly failed in his second term, when Reps blame Biden's economy, the Dems will just blame Trump.

Waaaaaait a second...

Yup and it will be a loosing augments for the Reps just like it a losing augments for Dems.  Blaming a past President for a bad ecomedy under a current President has never been effective whether it true or not.  Both parties have done it in past and I don't believe it has ever been convincing to most Americans.



Hiku said:

All votes haven't been counted yet, but as of right now, this graph checks out for being a few hours old.

2020
81m (D) +74m (R) = 155m votes in total

2024
66m (D) + 72m (R) = 138m votes in total


If the 15m missing Democratic voters went over to vote for Trump, I can at least understand their reasoning.
But as of now around 15 million of the Democratic voters essentially just decided not to vote.
Best to do this comparison after all votes have been counted though. It might allign a bit closer in the end, but man...

Hopefully the final numbers in the end make more sense, because otherwise you can't help but wonder.

The bellwethers haven't been wrong in a really long time, besides 2020.



Some really interesting data coming. Gen Z voted for Trump in it's majority, something I would never expect to see. It seems they are not as liberal as progressive as some would say. Also it seems while trump votes are not that far from 2020 and 2016, there were 15 million votes less for Harris compared to Biden. Thats crazy.  



EricHiggin said:
Hiku said:

All votes haven't been counted yet, but as of right now, this graph checks out for being a few hours old.

2020
81m (D) +74m (R) = 155m votes in total

2024
66m (D) + 72m (R) = 138m votes in total


If the 15m missing Democratic voters went over to vote for Trump, I can at least understand their reasoning.
But as of now around 15 million of the Democratic voters essentially just decided not to vote.
Best to do this comparison after all votes have been counted though. It might allign a bit closer in the end, but man...

Hopefully the final numbers in the end make more sense, because otherwise you can't help but wonder.

The bellwethers haven't been wrong in a really long time, besides 2020.

2020 was really.... strange to say the least. Of course saying something was off with 2020 elections is a neo-nazi conspiracy theory fuelled by russian disinformation campaign to destroy democracy and kill squirrels.

Paraphrasing Chris Rock, "I am not saying these people are right in thinking this way, but I understand".



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Cyran said:

As for "MAGA" I not sure anyone other than Trump can lead the movement. I could be completely wrong but I got the feeling without Trump at it head there going to be a lot of in fighting and divisions forming with in it ranks that make it hard for any one person to unify it like Trump can. One thing we have see over and over again is an Trump endorsement is not that valuable in a general election. Many Trump picked people lost yesterday in places that Trump won. Don't get me wrong if the Economy booming in 4 years the republican could hold on to power but if it bad Democrats got a great shot who ever the republicans choose.

The only way MAGA gets dropped is if Trumps second term is deemed a failure or if a 2028 candidate comes up with something way better.

If Trumps second term goes well (enough) then MAGA will remain. Vance, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Gabbard, or even maybe RFK could and likely would continue MAGA, though each would obviously make some (small) adjustments/additions.



EricHiggin said:
Tober said:

I'm looking at some of the reporting about the election. As a Dutchie it always baffles me those voting results being split up by ethnic groups. It would be unthinkable here in the Netherlands.

I get it's possible to see difference in numbers by income class, age or if someone lives in a high or low population area. But it simply feels silly to me expecting people to vote by their skincolor.

To my American friends, why is it done this way?

It happens in Canada as well, but the media is much more careful about how they show and talk about it.

There's a few reasons, like others have stated, but it's also useful when identity politics is at play.

Instead of doing things the hard way, and solely catering to critical thinking by coming up with good ideas and good policies, it's way easier to also label your opponents as racists, sexists, homophobes, etc, and hope those demographics vote for you just because they fit that profile. This alone isn't enough to win, but it can be quite successful if done in smaller doses in just the right way.

Still seems pretty racist. All one under the flag and all that... pfft. Perhaps not. 



Looking at the demographic shifts, this election has all the hallmarks of a Nixon 1968-style result that brings about a major, long-lasting shift in the status quo. That being said, it also feels very similar in a lot of ways to John Kerry's loss in 2004, in that it could be an opportunity for the Democrats to get their act together over the next four years and come back when the incumbent hits the term limit.

Basically, either the Democrats can re-establish their connection with voters, find themselves another Obama (hopefully not literally, but Michelle probably would be one of their better options right about now), and turn this into a necessary fail that provides them with a platform for greater success in four years. Or they can double down on what caused them to lose, run another George McGovern next time, and spend the next twenty years in the electoral wilderness.



EnricoPallazzo said:

Some really interesting data coming. Gen Z voted for Trump in it's majority, something I would never expect to see. It seems they are not as liberal as progressive as some would say. Also it seems while trump votes are not that far from 2020 and 2016, there were 15 million votes less for Harris compared to Biden. Thats crazy.  

He didn't, although he managed to swing them a bit vs. the last election. Bush 2000 is still the most recent Republican to win the youth vote.

I'm more surprised by the Gen Y tie since that used to be strongly pro-Obama in the past. Gen X has lead in their brains so the gap is expected and the older votes swung a bit toward Harris, suggesting the economy did play a strong role in the results.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Some really interesting data coming. Gen Z voted for Trump in it's majority, something I would never expect to see. It seems they are not as liberal as progressive as some would say. Also it seems while trump votes are not that far from 2020 and 2016, there were 15 million votes less for Harris compared to Biden. Thats crazy.  

He didn't, although he managed to swing them a bit vs. the last election. Bush 2000 is still the most recent Republican to win the youth vote.

I'm more surprised by the Gen Y tie since that used to be strongly pro-Obama in the past. Gen X has lead in their brains so the gap is expected and the older votes swung a bit toward Harris, suggesting the economy did play a strong role in the results.

I got a different breakdown, with H 45% and T 52% on the 18-24 bracket, then H 55% and T 43% on the 25-29 bracket.

I wouldnt consider 25-29y people as gen Z but what do I know, these definitions keep on changing all the time.