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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

SanAndreasX said:
Tober said:

I'm looking at some of the reporting about the election. As a Dutchie it always baffles me those voting results being split up by ethnic groups. It would be unthinkable here in the Netherlands.

I get it's possible to see difference in numbers by income class, age or if someone lives in a high or low population area. But it simply feels silly to me expecting people to vote by their skincolor.

To my American friends, why is it done this way?

Because U.S. law has typically treated people differently based on skin color from the very beginning. When the Constitution was drafted, racial differences were actually baked into the main body of the Constitution. Black Americans were not citizens and did not have the right to vote until the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments were passed after the Civil War. Blacks were counted as three-fifths of a person because the South wanted to use enslaved people to pad out their representation in the House of Representatives, and therefore the Electoral College, despite the fact that they were not legally citizens and had no voting rights. The North did not want the South to be able to count them at all because they were not legally citizens. The South was not as invested in becoming independent from Britain as the North was. Southern plantation society was their version of British peerage and aristocracy. The South simply refused to join the revolution unless concessions were made. The concessions ended up being the Three-Fifths Compromise.

After the Civil War, blacks continued to not be treated as equals. The South openly passed Jim Crow laws which disenfranchised black voters and spent the next 100 years fighting to maintain them, despite the fact that the Constitution supposedly guaranteed equal rights for blacks. The same laws also denied educational opportunities for blacks for the purposes of forcing them into being cheap labor. That said, the North was marginally better, at best, in that regard. It took the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to end Jim Crow, using the Interstate Commerce Clause to enforce it. Even then, it continued in subtle ways like redlining real estate to keep minorities out.

Native Americans had their lands seized and were sent to reservations, and forced into tribal schools to Christianize and Americanize them. There is one of those tribal schools in my home city of Phoenix, which is now a museum, that has a major east-west road named after it. Tribal lands are sovereign and are subject only to their own jurisdiction and that of the federal government; they are outside the control of the states. That is an issue in Oklahoma, where the Oklahoma state government is frustrated that they can't exert control over tribal members in the eastern part of the state as per McGirt v. Oklahoma. Native Americans didn't receive U.S. Citizenship until 1924. Even the Fourteenth Amendment's citizenship clause excluded Native Americans ("Indians not taxed") from citizenship.

Thanks for the backstory. It explains the ethnic sensitivities. But I cannot help but feel that in the current day and age using ethnicity to analyze voter choice could be misleading.

Let me give an example: It's commonly known that in high population areas like inner cities, people tend to be politically left leaning. This is a world wide phenomenon.

Let's say a certain ethnicity lives above average in high population centers. When trying to explain the voter choice by ethnicity, this could result in a conclusion that this ethnicity prefers left leaning politics. But meanwhile it could just be a result of living mostly in inner cities.



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Hiku said:

All votes haven't been counted yet, but as of right now, this graph checks out for being a few hours old.

2020
81m (D) +74m (R) = 155m votes in total

2024
66m (D) + 72m (R) = 138m votes in total


If the 15m missing Democratic voters went over to vote for Trump, I can at least understand their reasoning.
But as of now around 15 million of the Democratic voters essentially just decided not to vote.
Best to do this comparison after all votes have been counted though. It might allign a bit closer in the end, but man...

Interesting graph. 2020 sure was an outlier.

Is it known how many registered voters there are in the USA? In other words what the percentage of people where that turned up to vote? 2020 must have been massive.



Tober said:

Thanks for the backstory. It explains the ethnic sensitivities. But I cannot help but feel that in the current day and age using ethnicity to analyze voter choice could be misleading.

Let me give an example: It's commonly known that in high population areas like inner cities, people tend to be politically left leaning. This is a world wide phenomenon.

Let's say a certain ethnicity lives above average in high population centers. When trying to explain the voter choice by ethnicity, this could result in a conclusion that this ethnicity prefers left leaning politics. But meanwhile it could just be a result of living mostly in inner cities.

Party affiliation in the US was historically strongly linked to ethnicity. German-Americans and New Englanders voted for Republicans. Irish-Americans, Italians, Southerners, and Blacks voted for Democrats.

So it's not all about cities. Even today you can easily see the swathes of blue rural counties in the South that are Black-majority. Same (at least before Trump) with Hispanic counties in southern Texas.

The thing is that the Democrats have long taken their voters for granted. It seems that doesn't work forever.



 

 

 

 

 

People are acting like this is the end of the world. People need to calm down and realise it's not the end of the world until January.



Tober said:

Interesting graph. 2020 sure was an outlier.

Is it known how many registered voters there are in the USA? In other words what the percentage of people where that turned up to vote? 2020 must have been massive.

Turnout was 58.6% in 2012, 60.1% in 2016, and 66.6% in 2020. So as of four years ago, the total electorate was about 235 million.



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It concerns me greatly that Musk will be in Trump's administration, not only because he's a fucking idiot outside of Tesla/Space X (and even then it's debatable how much he does in day to day operations there) but because he owns Twitter which means Twitter's owner will now be in the administration of the American government...That is a concerning level of power for any government considering how massive and widely used Twitter is. It opens up a huge potential of misinformation and propaganda to be spread on behalf of the government and it's not like Musk hasn't already done so in the past even before joining up with Trump! The moment he starts spreading Russian propaganda again, Europe should ban Twitter. Only hope Musk and Trump backstab each other fairly quickly, Trump already discarded Musk once before and talked shit about him so maybe he'll do it again.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 06 November 2024

Ryuu96 said:

Bit worrying that deadbeat father Elon Musk who has actively spread fake propaganda on Twitter even before today will now be working with Trump...Meaning Twitter's owner will also be in a governments administration, that's a concerning level of power for the administration considering how massive and widely used Twitter is. Huge potential for misinformation or propaganda on behalf of the government. Can only hope Musk and Trump backstab each other fairly quickly, he already discarded Musk aside once before and talked shit about him so maybe he'll do it again.

Meanwhile, Thiel will be working behind the scenes through Vance, from New Zealand.



Ryuu96 said:

Bit worrying that deadbeat father Elon Musk who has actively spread fake propaganda on Twitter even before today will now be working with Trump...Meaning Twitter's owner will also be in a governments administration, that's a concerning level of power for the administration considering how massive and widely used Twitter is. Huge potential for misinformation or propaganda on behalf of the government. Can only hope Musk and Trump backstab each other fairly quickly, he already discarded Musk aside once before and talked shit about him so maybe he'll do it again.

Don't forget that RFK Jr. might get to take care of the health department.

Besides, how much longer will Trump continue to be somewhat stable. His mental decay has been visible the last few months, so he isn't too far away from regular freezing moments like Biden had. At some point JD Vance might have to take over during the next four years.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

SanAndreasX said:
Ryuu96 said:

Bit worrying that deadbeat father Elon Musk who has actively spread fake propaganda on Twitter even before today will now be working with Trump...Meaning Twitter's owner will also be in a governments administration, that's a concerning level of power for the administration considering how massive and widely used Twitter is. Huge potential for misinformation or propaganda on behalf of the government. Can only hope Musk and Trump backstab each other fairly quickly, he already discarded Musk aside once before and talked shit about him so maybe he'll do it again.

Meanwhile, Thiel will be working behind the scenes through Vance, from New Zealand.

Well I deleted my Twitter account today, don't know if I'll bother with BlueSky.

Wouldn't be surprised if Trump keeps Twitter afloat with cash injections though, it's a valuable propaganda tool.

Like I said in my edit, the moment Musk starts parroting Russian propaganda again, Europe should ban Twitter.