Even if Iowa has swung towards Dems, if the reason is truly the abortion ban, it may not be quite as predictive of other states as a more generalized swing. Obviously it's impossible to know, but I wouldn't put too much stock into what that means for the Rust Belt as a whole.

I am somewhat doubtful that the 11 point swing was caused by solely by the abortion ban specifically. I imagine part of it is related to general trends on abortion. And some of it would likely have to do with Trump himself. It is rather hard to imagine that giant swing would happen and PA would move over a point to the right. So I think it's fair to say that PA would be a lock in any event, in this scenario. 

But it is possible that the result is in some part due to the ban specifically. Which is why I would say Ohio would be in play.

But suppose you're right and it was just the abortion ban. In that case, you have to start thinking about Texas, where there is a highly restrictive ban, Florida where there is a ballot initiative, and AZ where there is a ballot initiative. All of those states were much closer in 2020. Particularly in FL and AZ where the ban is actually on the ballot, you'd expect a large shift.

So, take your pick. It's all just abortion ban specific, and AZ, TX, and FL are in play. Or, it's more generalized and that bodes well for PA and OH. 

I'm pretty confident Harris will win. But then again, I'm not American so I there's probably disassociation to the events that allows me to feel that way. But I honestly can't see Trump winning a 2nd time.

I'm reading mostly good news for Harris, glad to hear of it. Trump is going to be so butthurt if/and when he loses. He'll be like a crazy angry clown and then demand not only a recount but may file a lawsuit as well.

Here is an interesting video with a former Maga cult member (her opinion). 

For a large number of people, this is a religious movement. I don't mean that figuratively, I mean it literally. No amount of logical or even emotional appeal will work. 

There are three great documentaries on this phenomenon: God and Country, Bad Faith, and Shiny Happy People. 

I grew up in part in Oklahoma, which was the canary in the coal mine for this kind of batshittery, thanks in part to the Gaylord family, whose fucking name is all over so much shit in Oklahoma it's not even funny.  

Heh. You said gaylord. Heh heh. 

If there's one bass ackwards state where you can count on the locals to vote against their own interests, it's good ol' Brokelahoma. We ain't 46th in the nation in education and 48th in poverty fer nuthin.

Our state superintendent is trying to pass a law that requires that the Christian bible be taught in public schools and spend 3 million in taxpayer money to purchase 55,000 copies of the Trump bible to stick in classrooms. I'm not making this up: https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/politics/government/2024/10/05/ryan-walters-oklahoma-trump-bibles-legality/75512463007/

Yeah, we weren't exaggerating when we called it a cult. Like any cult, they won't be reasoned or shamed out of their beliefs. They need to come to question those beliefs, lift their own veil, and have somewhere they feel welcome to come back to once they leave.

Buckle up, because barring some surprise or catastrophe, Walters will almost certainly be the next governor after Stitt leaves office in 2027 due to term limits. 

Another thing that pisses me off about Oklahoma is the Oklahoma Turnpike Authority. I own property not far from where they want to build I-335. I didn't know you were in OK.

I myself am primarily an Arizona resident, and while we've done some things right, I remain dismayed at the cognitive disconnect between the Senate polls, where Kari Lake is getting her ass handed to her (though I'm frankly dismayed that she is a viable candidate to begin with) by Ruben Gallego, and the Presidential polls, where Trump holds a 2 point lead. At least the abortion rights amendment is set to pass there.  Kari Lake is basically female Trump. She's a TV talking head whose TV career ended after she made some rather questionable statements in public, she lost a tightly contested governor's election in 2022, and she hasn't stopped crying about massive voter fraud since then. Meanwhile, AZGOP officials keep getting arrested left and right for their roles in fake elector schemes and other financial fuckery.