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Forums - Sales - Bigger Suprise Sales Success: Helldivers 2 or Palworld?

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Bigger Sales Surprise Success?

Helldivers 2 28 45.16%
 
Palworld 34 54.84%
 
Total:62
JWeinCom said:
chakkra said:

Huh.. that's.. interesting. Seems like Steam page doesn't update at the same time for everybody.

But anyways, I'll give you that one; it would be pointless to argue something where we don't have the same data.

As per your second point.. So I guess your whole argument is that Helldivers 2 had a smaller dropoff, therefore that makes it more successful because it was never that big to begin with?

But... It doesn't really matter if it updates at different times? I mean, the point was that they'd both been in the top 100 for the same length of time. The exact place it is at the moment is irrelevant. If you scrolled down further, you'd see Helldivers, or you can look at the weekly data which is static. If you did either of those very easy things, you'd see that Helldivers has indeed been on the list for 29 weeks as of now. It is not pointless to argue about it because we don't have the same data, it's just pointless for you to argue because it's an easily verifiable fact.

And no, I am not arguing Helldivers 2 is more successful. I'm arguing that its success is more surprising. Because... that's what the thread is about... 

Based on the "it's Pokemon with guns" thing, I would expect a lot of people check out Palworld, and then for it to lose the bulk of its playerbase, or fizzle out, quickly unless it was better than it appeared at first glance. Seeing as Palworld did about what I expected, Helldiver's success was more surprising.

You objected to that because you didn't think Palworld "started out strong and fizzled out quickly". So, what we were debating, as I have pointed out several times, is whether Palworld indeed did fizzle out quickly. That's where the difference between its peak and its current amount of users is relevant. Because, that's what fizzling out quickly means, losing a lot of players over a short period of time.

Helldivers 2 is not directly relevant to that point, as I pointed out several times, but since they launched around the same time and both started high on the charts, it is probably the best available comparison. When we compare them, we see that despite Palworld starting with about 5 times as many users, but by two months in, it had half as many players as Helldivers. And it stayed about half of what Helldivers 2 was doing until its update, where it briefly took a lead that it has already lost. Based on this, or just looking at the Palworld's user base or sales figures trends in isolation, it is pretty clear that Palworld fizzled out quickly. 

Since Nintendo suing has reminded me of Palworld's existence lets see how things are going. Sorting by current players.

17. HELLDIVERS™ 2 49,707 68,380 458,709

Helldivers at #17. Ok, that's pretty respectable. Let me look above it to see if Palworld is doing better. 

Hmmmm... Not in the top 20. Lets check the top 40. Nope...

Top 50? Don't see it... Must be in the top 70 at least... 

No... Ah I see it! HELLO DOWN THERE!

74. Palworld 12,452 26,734 2,101,867

So, Helldivers still has about the same playerbase as it did about a month ago, a little higher actually I think, while Palworld has lost at least half. Also now far behind in 24H peak and 30 day average. Maybe it will get a bit of a boost out of the lawsuit. Don't like saying I was right, but someone has to.  

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 18 September 2024

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Well, it finally happens - Nintendo and Pokemon Company are suing Palworld developers:

Nintendo Co., Ltd. (HQ: Kyoto, Minami-ku, Japan; Representative Director and President: Shuntaro Furukawa, “Nintendo” hereafter), together with The Pokémon Company, filed a patent infringement lawsuit in the Tokyo District Court against Pocketpair, Inc. (HQ: 2-10-2 Higashigotanda, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, “Defendant” hereafter) on September 18, 2024.

This lawsuit seeks an injunction against infringement and compensation for damages on the grounds that Palworld, a game developed and released by the Defendant, infringes multiple patent rights.

Nintendo will continue to take necessary actions against any infringement of its intellectual property rights including the Nintendo brand itself, to protect the intellectual properties it has worked hard to establish over the years.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/18/24248602/nintendo-pokemon-palworld-pocketpair-patent-infringement-lawsuit



JWeinCom said:
chakkra said:

Huh.. that's.. interesting. Seems like Steam page doesn't update at the same time for everybody.

But anyways, I'll give you that one; it would be pointless to argue something where we don't have the same data.

As per your second point.. So I guess your whole argument is that Helldivers 2 had a smaller dropoff, therefore that makes it more successful because it was never that big to begin with?

But... It doesn't really matter if it updates at different times? I mean, the point was that they'd both been in the top 100 for the same length of time. The exact place it is at the moment is irrelevant. If you scrolled down further, you'd see Helldivers, or you can look at the weekly data which is static. If you did either of those very easy things, you'd see that Helldivers has indeed been on the list for 29 weeks as of now. It is not pointless to argue about it because we don't have the same data, it's just pointless for you to argue because it's an easily verifiable fact.

And no, I am not arguing Helldivers 2 is more successful. I'm arguing that its success is more surprising. Because... that's what the thread is about... 

Based on the "it's Pokemon with guns" thing, I would expect a lot of people check out Palworld, and then for it to lose the bulk of its playerbase, or fizzle out, quickly unless it was better than it appeared at first glance. Seeing as Palworld did about what I expected, Helldiver's success was more surprising.

You objected to that because you didn't think Palworld "started out strong and fizzled out quickly". So, what we were debating, as I have pointed out several times, is whether Palworld indeed did fizzle out quickly. That's where the difference between its peak and its current amount of users is relevant. Because, that's what fizzling out quickly means, losing a lot of players over a short period of time.

Helldivers 2 is not directly relevant to that point, as I pointed out several times, but since they launched around the same time and both started high on the charts, it is probably the best available comparison. When we compare them, we see that despite Palworld starting with about 5 times as many users, but by two months in, it had half as many players as Helldivers. And it stayed about half of what Helldivers 2 was doing until its update, where it briefly took a lead that it has already lost. Based on this, or just looking at the Palworld's user base or sales figures trends in isolation, it is pretty clear that Palworld fizzled out quickly. 

So, a peak higher than Helldivers EVER had.. more than 2 years later.. not too shabby for a game that fizzled out that quickly, huh?



Glancing at the player counts over the years, it looks like Palworld definitely held up a lot stronger than Helldivers 2. With 1.0 launch showing to be another success, yeah I'd definitely give this one to Pocketpair.



firebush03 said:

Glancing at the player counts over the years, it looks like Palworld definitely held up a lot stronger than Helldivers 2. With 1.0 launch showing to be another success, yeah I'd definitely give this one to Pocketpair.

In revenue, Helldivers 2 has consistently ranked far above Palworld and never left Steam's top 100. Palworld was often (mostly?) outside the top 200. And sequels are historically much less likely to explode in popularity compared to new IP's. Tons of IP's were popular from the first game, whereas not many sequels/successors outsell their best selling predecessor 5 to 1. As a matter of fact I can't think of a single title coming close to this other than maybe Monster Hunter World?

But Palworld was pretty much early acess until now, and we don't know how much higher it can go. They both shattered expectations.



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Kyuu said:

In revenue, Helldivers 2 has consistently ranked far above Palworld and never left Steam's top 100. Palworld was often (mostly?) outside the top 200. And sequels are historically much less likely to explode in popularity compared to new IP's. Tons of IP's were popular from the first game, whereas not many sequels/successors outsell their best selling predecessor 5 to 1. As a matter of fact I can't think of a single title coming close to this other than maybe Monster Hunter World?

But Palworld was pretty much early acess until now, and we don't know how much higher it can go. They both shattered expectations.

Eh. More revenue doesn’t necessarily mean greater “sales success” as much as it means the publisher behind the game maybe milked consumers more for their money. And that’s a fair point regarding Steam top charts (assuming true? Do we have source for this?), though again, the higher consistent concurrent player count looks a lot stronger to me than placing more frequently in top sales charts. Palworld was frontloaded yes but it did a better job maintaining its base.

But that’s just my take. I can see where you’re coming from.



They're different kinds of surprise successes: Helldivers 2 surprised by being so successful, but its existence wasn't really a huge surprise, I reckon. Palworld's reveal came out of nowhere, but the moment it did, its sales potential was obvious. It wasn't clear if it was going to be very successful, and because I didn't (and still don't) like the concept, I was hoping it would fail, but its success was by no means a surprise. Because of this, I gave my vote to Helldivers 2.



firebush03 said:
Kyuu said:

In revenue, Helldivers 2 has consistently ranked far above Palworld and never left Steam's top 100. Palworld was often (mostly?) outside the top 200. And sequels are historically much less likely to explode in popularity compared to new IP's. Tons of IP's were popular from the first game, whereas not many sequels/successors outsell their best selling predecessor 5 to 1. As a matter of fact I can't think of a single title coming close to this other than maybe Monster Hunter World?

But Palworld was pretty much early acess until now, and we don't know how much higher it can go. They both shattered expectations.

Eh. More revenue doesn’t necessarily mean greater “sales success” as much as it means the publisher behind the game maybe milked consumers more for their money. And that’s a fair point regarding Steam top charts (assuming true? Do we have source for this?), though again, the higher consistent concurrent player count looks a lot stronger to me than placing more frequently in top sales charts. Palworld was frontloaded yes but it did a better job maintaining its base.

But that’s just my take. I can see where you’re coming from.

Steam top sellers and rankings are public information just like concurrent players. Helldivers 2 has been in the top 100 (typically in the top 50 and in the top 3 with every big update) for 129 consecutive weeks, while Palworld just re-entered the top 100 (currently 4th). Helldivers 2 also held its players better relative to its opening, but again, the comparison isn't exactly fair to Palworld which was in early access, and things may change going forward.

Revenue is a better sales metric than concurrent players. Palworld had an explosive start but it's clear that Helldivers 2 outlegged it until now.

I still lean towards Palworld being the bigger surprise, but an argument can be made for Helldivers 2 which achieved something that not a single sequel I know ever did. Helldivers 2 will sell like 6 times more than the first game, and generate like 20 or 30 times more money 🤑 Granted it costs a lot more to maintain and update, being a live service game and all that.

Last edited by Kyuu - 1 day ago

Kyuu said:
firebush03 said:

Eh. More revenue doesn’t necessarily mean greater “sales success” as much as it means the publisher behind the game maybe milked consumers more for their money. And that’s a fair point regarding Steam top charts (assuming true? Do we have source for this?), though again, the higher consistent concurrent player count looks a lot stronger to me than placing more frequently in top sales charts. Palworld was frontloaded yes but it did a better job maintaining its base.

But that’s just my take. I can see where you’re coming from.

Steam top sellers and rankings are public information just like concurrent players. Helldivers 2 has been in the top 100 (typically in the top 50 and in the top 3 with every big update) for 129 consecutive weeks, while Palworld just re-entered the top 100 (currently 4th). Helldivers 2 also held its players better relative to its opening, but again, the comparison isn't exactly fair to Palworld which was in early access, and things may change going forward.

Revenue is a better sales metric than concurrent players. Palworld had an explosive start but it's clear that Helldivers 2 outlegged it until now.

I still lean towards Palworld being the bigger surprise, but an argument can be made for Helldivers 2 which achieved something that not a single sequel I know ever did. Helldivers 2 will sell like 6 times more than the first game, and generate like 20 or 30 times more money 🤑 Granted it costs a lot more to maintain and update, being a live service game and all that.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that any content that Palword has received in the past two years have been free content? If that's the case, then you are basically comparing revenue from pure units solds of one game to revenue from traditional online monetization of the other.



chakkra said:
Kyuu said:

Steam top sellers and rankings are public information just like concurrent players. Helldivers 2 has been in the top 100 (typically in the top 50 and in the top 3 with every big update) for 129 consecutive weeks, while Palworld just re-entered the top 100 (currently 4th). Helldivers 2 also held its players better relative to its opening, but again, the comparison isn't exactly fair to Palworld which was in early access, and things may change going forward.

Revenue is a better sales metric than concurrent players. Palworld had an explosive start but it's clear that Helldivers 2 outlegged it until now.

I still lean towards Palworld being the bigger surprise, but an argument can be made for Helldivers 2 which achieved something that not a single sequel I know ever did. Helldivers 2 will sell like 6 times more than the first game, and generate like 20 or 30 times more money 🤑 Granted it costs a lot more to maintain and update, being a live service game and all that.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that any content that Palword has received in the past two years have been free content? If that's the case, then you are basically comparing revenue from pure units solds of one game to revenue from traditional online monetization of the other.

It's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but it doesn't really matter. Palworld's free content constitutes its appeal and therefore helps it selling (increasing revenue). If Pocketpair had microtransactions, revenue and sales may have been worse and the hype would have completely died for all we know. Palworld being priced $10 lower may also be a contributing factor as to why it sold well. Steam games typically generate a lot more money during heavy sales, so the lower price may or may not be a revenue advantage. Different games have different "sweet spots" and Pocketpair went for the model that they think best suits their game.

Helldivers 2 was estimated to have sold less than 5 million in the first month.
Palworld sold 15 million on Steam + 10 million players on Xbox in its first month.

Since then, Helldivers 2 added an estimated 15-22 million copies sold (not "players" bullshit). Palworld added up to 15 million players (including GamePass). So Helldivers 2 was probably selling better outside month 1 even without the higher pricetag and micotransactions factored in (Which I don't see why they shouldn't be factored in. Why do some people act like mtx, expansions, etc aren't measures of success?)

In the end they're two different games doing different things and both impressed in their own ways. But now that Palworld is fully released, it might just be the next Fortnite! (not happening but... who knows?!).