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Forums - Sales - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 36 million?

 

Will the Xbox Series make it to 36 million?

Yes it will 7 35.00%
 
No, it will fall short 13 65.00%
 
Total:20
Norion said:

Alright with this big price increase the chances of it reaching 40m is likely over unless it's notably undertracked here or somehow lasts till late 2028. This thread is only a year old and it's wild how much worse things have gotten for Xbox hardware since it's started. Go back just a couple years and even the most pessimistic projections would be extremely optimistic now. It's just been getting worse and worse and worse for Xbox since the end of 2022.

trunkswd said:

In total I spent around $2,000 over the course of 2 years to upgrade. I upgraded the MOBO, CPU, RAM, and SSD first for about $1,000, then got the GPU for ~$700 about a year later. I kept my old case, monitors, keyboard, and mouse. 

Out of curiosity what are your specs?

  • CPU: AMD Ryzen 9 5900X
  • GPU: AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT
  • RAM: 32GB
  • 2TB NVME
  • Main monitor: 27" 1440p, 144hz with AMD FreeSync
  • 2nd monitor: 23" 1080p
  • Keyboard: Logitech G910
  • Mouse: Razer Deathadder V2
  • Webcam: Logitech C920
  • Mic: AudioTechnica AT2020USB+

Mind you the CPU and GPU were the latest models when I bought them.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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One more nail in the coffin.

The top end Series X selling for more than a PS5 Pro and the Series S 1TB for more than a PS5 DE is diabolical considering how much less value they clearly have in the eyes of the market.

That being said, I suspect PS5 is next and will hike their prices soon as well in response to the tariff situation.



So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices. Are they trying to push more people into GamePass, or will they also increase GamePass subscription prices soon?

As for Sony, I sure hope they stop pampering the US consumer, and for once not take their frustration out on the rest of the world.



Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices. Are they trying to push more people into GamePass, or will they also increase GamePass subscription prices soon?

As for Sony, I sure hope they stop pampering the US consumer, and for once not take their frustration out on the rest of the world.

I'd be money Gamepass will rise in price soon too; with their install base stagnating, they'll try to extract as much money from each customer as they can.



Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices.

Sure, but I bet if they wouldn't increase game prices, the prices for consoles would have increased even more. Because with 100 Dollars more they aren't gonna make up for trumps stupid tariffs, far from it. They would need to at least double the hardware prices. They don't want to do that for obvious reasons, so MS is counting on making more money with more expensive games to sort of even out the hits they are taking.

At least that's what I'm thinking. =P 



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OdinHades said:
Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices.

Sure, but I bet if they wouldn't increase game prices, the prices for consoles would have increased even more. Because with 100 Dollars more they aren't gonna make up for trumps stupid tariffs, far from it. They would need to at least double the hardware prices. They don't want to do that for obvious reasons, so MS is counting on making more money with more expensive games to sort of even out the hits they are taking.

At least that's what I'm thinking. =P 

The problem is these games' sales may suffer as a consequence of the increased prices, and so profitability will hardly change.

I'm pretty sure Trump will backtrack soon. But I don't know if Microsoft cares enough to reverse the new pricing. I think Sony is betting on Trump backtracking or "making a trade deal with CHAIYNA!!". They apparently stockpiled quite a lot of PS5's before the tariffs kicked in, so they can wait it out a little longer.

Nintendo meanwhile is saved by Vietnam.



Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices. Are they trying to push more people into GamePass, or will they also increase GamePass subscription prices soon?

As for Sony, I sure hope they stop pampering the US consumer, and for once not take their frustration out on the rest of the world.

I think they're pushing people onto Gamepass, and within a few months or so, they'll hike up the prices there as well. Subscriptions are Microsoft's grand plan across several markets and services, it's clever (but painful for me) and makes sense in a market where they can't seem to compete on existing terms.

Ultimately, these price increases from the big boys (Nintendo, MS, and Sony) may well shrink the industry as a whole. Increasing prices of products and services to make up for rising costs is usually a worse solution than increasing (or even maintaining) volume and reducing costs. People talk a lot about relative cost of gaming, and how games were actually more expensive before. While this is true, it's also a phenomenon from way back when gaming was still very much a niche industry overshadowed by movies and music (by a decent margin). The industry and market today is a different beast, and it sits in a time where people are shelling out left and right for a slew of technological solutions, devices, and services. People need to cut costs - and luxuries like games, streaming services, and flagship devices are on the chopping block for real right now. The modern gaming market is full of more fringe consumers who have less of a vested (and, by extension; invested) interest in the pastime, and may simply leave it (we've seen big migrations away from entertainment before) for lack of convenience, affordability, or both. 

Disney Plus lost about 700k subscribers between October-December 2024 due to price hikes, the WB group lost a total of 2.5 million subscribers following the rebranding of HBO and price hikes, Amazon Prime lost a lot of subscriptions by introducing ads at the same price point. People are cutting out things rather than adding, there's only room for a small amount of major players that can pull off customer retention, in the above scenario that would be Netflix (most other services have suffered when applying the same models and strategies). Look at how the music and movie industry are suffering these days, cinemas closing shop, artists revolting against streaming services, TV shows being axed daily due to low viewership in a jungle of mediocrity (and absurd costs). The entertainment sector overall is having a hard time selling itself to us; making it even more expensive won't do the trick in these trying times. There are figures suggesting that the movie and TV-industry in total shrunk by 20% yoy in 2024, with the gigantic US market shrinking as much as 40%.

I think most major releases at a default 80$ price-point will suffer, and that the increased price will strongly reduce total sales to the point where it becomes a net loss having increased the prices to begin with. As mentioned above, a select few will manage to stay afloat, or even grow, under these conditions. Right now I think that Nintendo will do well even at 80$, but they won't have much company in their success.

The gaming industry is headed for the same stormy waters as music and movies, but it's lagging many years behind. Pricing themselves out of customer range will only serve to accelerate the decline.



Mummelmann said:
Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices. Are they trying to push more people into GamePass, or will they also increase GamePass subscription prices soon?

As for Sony, I sure hope they stop pampering the US consumer, and for once not take their frustration out on the rest of the world.

I think they're pushing people onto Gamepass, and within a few months or so, they'll hike up the prices there as well. Subscriptions are Microsoft's grand plan across several markets and services, it's clever (but painful for me) and makes sense in a market where they can't seem to compete on existing terms.

Ultimately, these price increases from the big boys (Nintendo, MS, and Sony) may well shrink the industry as a whole. Increasing prices of products and services to make up for rising costs is usually a worse solution than increasing (or even maintaining) volume and reducing costs. People talk a lot about relative cost of gaming, and how games were actually more expensive before. While this is true, it's also a phenomenon from way back when gaming was still very much a niche industry overshadowed by movies and music (by a decent margin). The industry and market today is a different beast, and it sits in a time where people are shelling out left and right for a slew of technological solutions, devices, and services. People need to cut costs - and luxuries like games, streaming services, and flagship devices are on the chopping block for real right now. The modern gaming market is full of more fringe consumers who have less of a vested (and, by extension; invested) interest in the pastime, and may simply leave it (we've seen big migrations away from entertainment before) for lack of convenience, affordability, or both. 

Disney Plus lost about 700k subscribers between October-December 2024 due to price hikes, the WB group lost a total of 2.5 million subscribers following the rebranding of HBO and price hikes, Amazon Prime lost a lot of subscriptions by introducing ads at the same price point. People are cutting out things rather than adding, there's only room for a small amount of major players that can pull off customer retention, in the above scenario that would be Netflix (most other services have suffered when applying the same models and strategies). Look at how the music and movie industry are suffering these days, cinemas closing shop, artists revolting against streaming services, TV shows being axed daily due to low viewership in a jungle of mediocrity (and absurd costs). The entertainment sector overall is having a hard time selling itself to us; making it even more expensive won't do the trick in these trying times. There are figures suggesting that the movie and TV-industry in total shrunk by 20% yoy in 2024, with the gigantic US market shrinking as much as 40%.

I think most major releases at a default 80$ price-point will suffer, and that the increased price will strongly reduce total sales to the point where it becomes a net loss having increased the prices to begin with. As mentioned above, a select few will manage to stay afloat, or even grow, under these conditions. Right now I think that Nintendo will do well even at 80$, but they won't have much company in their success.

The gaming industry is headed for the same stormy waters as music and movies, but it's lagging many years behind. Pricing themselves out of customer range will only serve to accelerate the decline.

Awesome post, wholeheartedly agree, you might even think of making it a thread of itself.

Mentioned something similar in the Games price, value and perception thread I made:

Seriously though, Nintendo's price hikes seem like a deliberate red ocean strategy. They are effectively squeezing out the competition's next-gen consoles by pushing them into a premium corner burdened by high AAA development costs and a potentially smaller audience. This strategic move leaves their rivals with limited choices: either increase their own prices or attempt a market disruption with a cheaper alternative, a base already secured by the Switch Lite.



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TomaTito said:
Mummelmann said:

I think they're pushing people onto Gamepass, and within a few months or so, they'll hike up the prices there as well. Subscriptions are Microsoft's grand plan across several markets and services, it's clever (but painful for me) and makes sense in a market where they can't seem to compete on existing terms.

Ultimately, these price increases from the big boys (Nintendo, MS, and Sony) may well shrink the industry as a whole. Increasing prices of products and services to make up for rising costs is usually a worse solution than increasing (or even maintaining) volume and reducing costs. People talk a lot about relative cost of gaming, and how games were actually more expensive before. While this is true, it's also a phenomenon from way back when gaming was still very much a niche industry overshadowed by movies and music (by a decent margin). The industry and market today is a different beast, and it sits in a time where people are shelling out left and right for a slew of technological solutions, devices, and services. People need to cut costs - and luxuries like games, streaming services, and flagship devices are on the chopping block for real right now. The modern gaming market is full of more fringe consumers who have less of a vested (and, by extension; invested) interest in the pastime, and may simply leave it (we've seen big migrations away from entertainment before) for lack of convenience, affordability, or both. 

Disney Plus lost about 700k subscribers between October-December 2024 due to price hikes, the WB group lost a total of 2.5 million subscribers following the rebranding of HBO and price hikes, Amazon Prime lost a lot of subscriptions by introducing ads at the same price point. People are cutting out things rather than adding, there's only room for a small amount of major players that can pull off customer retention, in the above scenario that would be Netflix (most other services have suffered when applying the same models and strategies). Look at how the music and movie industry are suffering these days, cinemas closing shop, artists revolting against streaming services, TV shows being axed daily due to low viewership in a jungle of mediocrity (and absurd costs). The entertainment sector overall is having a hard time selling itself to us; making it even more expensive won't do the trick in these trying times. There are figures suggesting that the movie and TV-industry in total shrunk by 20% yoy in 2024, with the gigantic US market shrinking as much as 40%.

I think most major releases at a default 80$ price-point will suffer, and that the increased price will strongly reduce total sales to the point where it becomes a net loss having increased the prices to begin with. As mentioned above, a select few will manage to stay afloat, or even grow, under these conditions. Right now I think that Nintendo will do well even at 80$, but they won't have much company in their success.

The gaming industry is headed for the same stormy waters as music and movies, but it's lagging many years behind. Pricing themselves out of customer range will only serve to accelerate the decline.

Awesome post, wholeheartedly agree, you might even think of making it a thread of itself.

Mentioned something similar in the Games price, value and perception thread I made:

Seriously though, Nintendo's price hikes seem like a deliberate red ocean strategy. They are effectively squeezing out the competition's next-gen consoles by pushing them into a premium corner burdened by high AAA development costs and a potentially smaller audience. This strategic move leaves their rivals with limited choices: either increase their own prices or attempt a market disruption with a cheaper alternative, a base already secured by the Switch Lite.

It might force MS and Sony into a complete market reversal, where their hardware is perceived as the cheap option. That fits poorly with their overall image as tech-driven platforms with performance among their main focus areas. It's a marketing nightmare either way; piss off consumers by increasing prices, or fall into a market category which you've spent decades to avoid. I still think it's a dick-ish move from Nintendo, especially since they have by far the lowest cost ratios of the three when it comes to hardware and software. But it is clever, if this is indeed the plan in a broader perspective. I think you're on the money (both in a literal and figurative sense) in your post from that thread.



Kyuu said:

So why are Xbox 1st party games going up to $80? Xbox is digital dominated so tariffs shouldn't have much of an effect on game prices. Are they trying to push more people into GamePass, or will they also increase GamePass subscription prices soon?

As for Sony, I sure hope they stop pampering the US consumer, and for once not take their frustration out on the rest of the world.

Yes... probably like 90%+ are digital sales.
But think about those 9-10% that are not! clearly xbox needs to make more revenue because of tariffs.... ei. this is just a excuse, for the consumer.
And since they are raising prices on everything, they probably just figured why not go all the way, and rise game prices too (hey nintendo did it first!).

Its greed, with the game prices.
The hardware prices going up.... that the US tariffs.
Why is it going up other places in the world? when US get tariffs? because MS don't want to raise costs too much in the US (their biggest market) and thus they spread the love (price increase) around (ei. other parts of the world, are paying for US consumers having cheaper consoles).

Its messed up.