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Forums - Sales Discussion - March Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

March 2024 Circana (NPD) covers the five week period from March 1 to April 6 and will be released on May 1.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz March 2023 estimates:

  1. PS5 - 672K
  2. NS - 330K
  3. XSX|S - 282K

RESULTS

TLDR:

Units: PS5 > NS > XSX|S
Revenue: PS5 > XSX|S > NS

All 3 consoles dollar sales down 30% or more.

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 Best-Selling Console in the US in March, Dragon's Dogma 2 Best-Selling Game

The PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in the US in March 2024 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the five week period of March 3 to April 6.

The Nintendo Switch was second best-selling console in terms of units sold, however, it ranked third in terms of dollar sales. This does mean the Xbox Series X|S came in third in terms of units sold, but came in second in terms of dollar sales.

All three consoles dropped by a minimum of 30 percent year-on-year in terms of dollar sales and hardware spending in the first quarter of 2024 are down 24 percent compared to the first quarter of 2023.

Overall spending on video games in March was up four percent year-on-year from $4.72 billion to $4.89 billion. Spending on video game content increased nine percent from $3.92 billion to $4.25 billion, while video game hardware sales was down 32 percent from $574 million to $391 million. Spending on accessories increased nine percent from $222 million to $242 million.

"Projected total US spending on video game hardware, content and accessories gained 4% in March 2024 vs YA, reaching $4.9B," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella. "Mobile content spending grew 15%, offseting a 32% drop in hardware.."

Piscatella added, "Mobile’s strong performance was supplemented by a 3% increase in Console Content spend, along with a 2% gain in the PC, Cloud and Non-Console VR Content segment. Mobile accounted for 89% of the total year-on-year growth in video game content spending during the month."

The PlayStation Portal was the best-selling Accessory of March in terms of dollar sales, as well as for the first quarter of 2024.

Dragon's Dogma 2 debuted as the best-selling game of March 2024 and is the third best-selling game of 2024. The game is already higher than life-to-date tracked dollar sales for Dragon's Dogma and Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen combined.

Helldivers 2 was the second best-selling game of March 2024 and remains the best-selling premium game of 2024. It is also the seventh highest ranked Sony published title in the US in terms of lifetime US dollar sales after just two months.

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth fell five spots in its second month to seventh place and remained the fourth best-selling game of 2024. It is currently the 14th best-selling Final Fantasy release in lifetime dollar sales in the US. Final Fantasy XV is first of all-time, followed by Final Fantasy VII: Remake and the original Final Fantasy VII.

MLB: The Show 24 debuted in third place, Rise of the Ronin debuted in fifth place, Princess Peach: Showtime! debuted in sixth place, Unicorn Overlord debuted in eighth place, and WWE 2K24 debuted in ninth place.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for March 2024:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2024 year-to-date:

Here are the top 10 games played on the PlayStation 5 ranked by monthly active users:

Here are the top 10 games played on the Xbox Series X|S ranked by monthly active users:

Here are the top 10 games played on Steam ranked by monthly active users:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PlayStation platforms in March 2024:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Xbox platforms in March 2024:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Nintendo platforms in March 2024:

Last edited by trunkswd - on 01 May 2024

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Since the chart is calculated with revenue, I guess Dragons Dogma 2 will lead the software ranking with HellDivers II close by because of it's lower price point,really good retention and lack of competitive releases this month.

Anywoo, hardware wise I actually don't know what to think of it. Didn't the PS5 had a promotional price cut last year ? Was last year March tracking period also for 5 weeks ?

I feel like the numbers there would be similar or slightly down for the PS5, while the Switch experiences a fair 20% decline, same for the Xbox Series with about 20% or so ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:

Since the chart is calculated with revenue, I guess Dragons Dogma 2 will lead the software ranking with HellDivers II close by because of it's lower price point,really good retention and lack of competitive releases this month.

Anywoo, hardware wise I actually don't know what to think of it. Didn't the PS5 had a promotional price cut last year ? Was last year March tracking period also for 5 weeks ?

I feel like the numbers there would be similar or slightly down for the PS5, while the Switch experiences a fair 20% decline, same for the Xbox Series with about 20% or so ?

For Circana (NPD) March, June, September, and December are always 5 week and once every number of years January has 5 weeks, like with this year.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

March 2024 Circana (NPD) covers the five week period from March 1 to April 62 and will be released on May 1.

April 62?



firebush03 said:
trunkswd said:

March 2024 Circana (NPD) covers the five week period from March 1 to April 62 and will be released on May 1.

April 62?

My bad that was supposed to be April 6. Yes, that does mean the 5th week of March for Circana (NPD) has 6 whole days in April. And we at VGChartz follow the weeks Circana (NPD) does for what goes into what month.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Around the Network

Revenue: 400m

[PS5] 475k
[NS] 250k
[XBS] 225k



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

Reminder, March Circana (NPD) drops this Wednesday, May 1, so get your predictions in. I also hope to get the Americas estimates for March up later on Wednesday and worldwide estimates up Thursday or Friday.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

[Total Hardware Revenue] $460M

  1. [PS5] 500,000
  2. [Xbox Series] 250,000
  3. [Switch] 230,000

Personal Circana March 2024 Hardware units guestimations:

  1. PS5 - 350K
  2. NS - 270K
  3. XSX|S - 235K


Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

PS5 400k
NS 250k
Xb XS 200k

Revenue 360 million



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

March Circana (NPD) is out now. Working on the article as I write this. That should be out soon. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.