By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Reality, Console Industry has become Stagnated.

JackHandy said:

The only thing I see that's stagnant is originality. I came of age during the golden era. I experienced the industry from the NES to present. The games and consoles released during the NES to PS2 era were breathtaking. Every year, something was blowing your mind. Consoles dropped about every five years, and every time they did, they blew the last one away so thoroughly, that you literally would toss the old console in the closet and let it collect dust, or sell it off immediately for a credit toward the next one. Remakes were almost nonexistent. Everything was new. Everything was groundbreaking. It was insanely creative, and you were never hard up for something amazing to play.

This is something I no longer see, and why I rarely get excited for anything. I own a PS5, and I'm eager to see what Nintendo does. I still have an Xbox One and will occasionally subscribe to Game Pass when I want to try something out. But compared to the days of SNES, or PS1, or Dreamcast... there is no excitement. It's all pretty much meh. And that's what I think is the industry's biggest problem.

Of course, if you didn't experience the golden era, you might not know what you're missing, and if that's the case, I suppose it's not a problem.

This is soo true! Even thou for me its snes till ps2(nes a bit to old but still fun!)

These giant block buster games with amazing looking open world yet there is nothing to do/no interaction with the world. Just the story/standart quest/rince repeat.

Even ff7 rebirth has this problem.

Nintendo and indies seems to be the only ones who puts gameplay first and graphics second and even that cant compare to the golden age.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Around the Network

There's also what are the best selling games of this past generation? GTAV, Minecraft, and Mario Kart 8 would probably all be tops, these are all games from the previous generation and all of them would run on a Wii U. 



Azzanation said:

1) The console Industry isn't big enough for all companies to strive and is stagnated. It's not growing. Meaning, only thing these companies can do is match what they did last generation and with budgets increasing within the AAA industry, makes it even harder. This is why we are seeing more attempts of multiplatform games, Digital media, MTs, Online etc. They can only steal from each others customer userbase, they can't bring in new people to gaming within the console walls. 

This is blatantly false.

The console market is growing by roughly a few percentage points every year.
https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/consumer-electronics/gaming-equipment/game-consoles/worldwide

This ignores the meteoric rise of PC gaming and Mobile gaming.

Gaming is growing.

Azzanation said:

2) Shareholders aren't making enough coin back, no one invests only to break even. When you break even, it's a loss, because money wasted for little to no return, could have been spent in other industries to increase value. Time is money and investments are long term projects. This hurts shareholders when there is no growth within the brands they have stocks in.

In the case of Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, you don't *really* invest in a specific gaming brand.
You invest in the company.

And Microsoft being the most valuable company on Earth reinforces that investors are extremely happy and expect a return on their investment.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/

Nintendo is also doing stupidly well, the Switch is printing more money than even the Wii did.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NTDOY/nintendo/gross-profit

Azzanation said:

3) Games take too long to make and costs are too big. Companies that release 1 game every 5 years, have to cross their fingers and toes, hoping its successful because if it undersells, it hurts ALOT and they have to wait another 5 years to release a game that could still fail. This is why we are seeing more and more games more Multiplatform and more AA games. They are easier to make, cost less, and the most popular games out their right now are games like Palworld. 

I can go on and on with examples, but we need to start understanding how the industry operates. It's never about selling more than the competition, it's about selling more than your previous records. Industries are run by graphs, not your feelings. If the graphs are pointing up, then necessary actions are taking to get the arrow to pointing upward. This is why we constantly see layoffs and closures.

Here are some examples if you disagree with what I have written.

Keep in mind that smaller scope games continue to be made relatively quickly.

And whilst AAA games get larger, more expensive and potentially sell more copies with longer development times, other developers are stepping in and filling in the gaps.
Go back 20 years and you wouldn't have games like GTA5, Minecraft etc' set to sell 100~ million copies, that more than makes up for costlier development costs.

Again, not every game needs that kind of investment to be a success. See: Palworld with it's $7 million dollar budget.
https://www.inc-aus.com/kit-eaton/palworlds-popularity-a-huge-win-for-small-game-makers.html

Azzanation said:

Example 1: Sony's PS5 was the fastest selling console at launch, it's on track to match the PS4 sales wise. Yet why are they cutting jobs, closing studios, and bringing games to PC? Because it's about improving their dollar, not matching what they achieved last gen. The only way Sony can grow is to expand outside the console walls. Hence the PC ports. They wouldn't do it if they are way ahead of targets. Unlike Nintendo, they have thrashed their last console, the WiiU. However, the Switch 2 has a giant target on its back now because it needs to do better than the Switch One, otherwise we will see Nintendo take similar action to Sony and MS.

The reason for the job cuts is because jobs got artificially inflated during COVID, everyone was stuck at home, everyone was consuming digital content en-masse.

We saw engagement with digital platforms more than double during COVID as more people started to work from home.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773067024000037

Now we are seeing a market correction as markets return to normalcy.

Switch 2.0 doesn't need to exceed the Switch 1.0 to be successful.

They just need to be profitable, historically when Nintendo has done poorly (I.E. DS+wii to 3DS+WiiU) it was not met with significant layoffs, Nintendo as a company has always been relatively stable and ran relatively lean.

Iwata even took a paycut to prevent layoffs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/nintendo-ceo-once-halved-salary-to-prevent-layoffs-why-thats-uncommon.html

Azzanation said:

Example 2:  Why is MS bringing games to PS5? Let's use Rare as an example. They haven't released a new game since Sea of Thieves back in 2018, Rares only income comes from SoTs. MS is most likely bringing SoTs to PS5, is to boost player counts again and to help Rare make money to again please the shareholders. Otherwise, MS will be forced to cut jobs and maybe worse, close the studio. 

Some games require a strong player base to make them an enjoyable experience online... And the best way to do that is to be on as many platforms as possible.

This benefits Xbox gamers with it's smaller playerbase.

Azzanation said:

Example 3: Xbox and PS are now 3rd party PC companies. They are all bringing their games to PC, if not now, it will eventually happen. They see the growth and success from games they cross over and with the success of games like Sea of Thieves and Helldivars 2, especially Sony won't be missing these opportunities much longer, much like what MS started doing in the XB1 era. It's a matter of time.

They have always technically been "PC companies".

PC stands for "Personal Computer".

Consoles for all intents are computers... And tend to be "personal" or "family" in nature rather than commercial or industrial devices, just like a desktop windows PC.
I.E. Sony advertised the PS1 as a Computer Entertainment device.


The difference with consoles verses IBM-based computers is that they are far more closed-off, walled gardens.

And because PC tends to invest a significant amount more in processing technology and ended up being generationally ahead of everything else on the market from other companies like IBM, PowerPC, ARM, MiPS etc'. It was a no-brainer for consoles to go down that path eventually and leverage scales of economy and adopt PC technology.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

It’ll even itself out



Pemalite said:
Azzanation said:

1) The console Industry isn't big enough for all companies to strive and is stagnated. It's not growing. Meaning, only thing these companies can do is match what they did last generation and with budgets increasing within the AAA industry, makes it even harder. This is why we are seeing more attempts of multiplatform games, Digital media, MTs, Online etc. They can only steal from each others customer userbase, they can't bring in new people to gaming within the console walls. 

This is blatantly false.

The console market is growing by roughly a few percentage points every year.
https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/consumer-electronics/gaming-equipment/game-consoles/worldwide

This ignores the meteoric rise of PC gaming and Mobile gaming.

Gaming is growing.

It depends on whom you ask. The difference in estimated revenue from one research firm to the next can vary as much as twofold for any given year. All of them for some reason match quite closely the CAGR they project the industry to have in the coming years. I'm sure that's just a happy coincidence.

Bloomberg commissioned a retrospective study and the numbers were much more flat for dedicated gaming platforms going all the way to the early 80s, with just the '83 crash on the way:

There was a leap in 2020 with the pandemic that made everyone excited and there were lots of hirings and investments making use of the record low interest rates. Now that the party is over, it's clear that it's no longer sustainable. Some examples:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-2023-turn-the-fortunes-of-a-slowing-video-game-market

https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/game-industry-acquisitions-issues-2023/

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-lowers-2023-games-market-value-forecast-to-184bn



 

 

 

 

 

Around the Network
haxxiy said:
Pemalite said:

This is blatantly false.

The console market is growing by roughly a few percentage points every year.
https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/consumer-electronics/gaming-equipment/game-consoles/worldwide

This ignores the meteoric rise of PC gaming and Mobile gaming.

Gaming is growing.

It depends on whom you ask. The difference in estimated revenue from one research firm to the next can vary as much as twofold for any given year. All of them for some reason match quite closely the CAGR they project the industry to have in the coming years. I'm sure that's just a happy coincidence.

Bloomberg commissioned a retrospective study and the numbers were much more flat for dedicated gaming platforms going all the way to the early 80s, with just the '83 crash on the way:

There was a leap in 2020 with the pandemic that made everyone excited and there were lots of hirings and investments making use of the record low interest rates. Now that the party is over, it's clear that it's no longer sustainable. Some examples:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-2023-turn-the-fortunes-of-a-slowing-video-game-market

https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/game-industry-acquisitions-issues-2023/

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-lowers-2023-games-market-value-forecast-to-184bn

Sweet sources!

Just wondering, when we account for inflation. Is the console/handheld (maybe PC for Steam & Microsoft) market value today better or worse than the console/handheld/PC market value in the past (Idk what would be a good year to pick, I want to say Wii/PS3/Xbox 360 era).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

There's just a fundamental misunderstanding of how the financing industry works here.

The rate of return on investments, either debt or equity, has little to do with how much money the company makes, at least directly. Rate of return is all about the amount of risk.

If you're a start up company with an idea that may or may not pan out, and there's a good chance you won't ever be able to pay me back, I'm not going to lend you money unless either you promise me a very high interest rate (if it's debt) or I'm going to be entitled to a large percent of your profits (for equity).

For companies like Sony or Microsoft who have strong name value, are generally making money pretty reliably, and have large amount of assets, investors probably are not going to be demanding sky high rates of return. Even in the worst case scenario, debt holders are very likely to get repaid and Sony has enough assets to repay all of their equity holders if they had to liquidate, so it's a safe investment. If you're almost assured to give a return on your investment a even if it's a modest one, you'll find investors. The way to get higher rates of return is to go for riskier investments, not to find a company that's just making tons more money. 

I know the example in the OP was "dumbed down", but 100% rate of return. Yeesh, that's insane. In fact, Sony's WACC is about 5%, meaning for every dollar of capital (equity/debt) they are paying back a dollar and five cents. And as for demanding more of a return each year... ummmmm... they don't? They can't? If it's debt they're going to be *generally* locked into a rate for a specific timeframe. New debt investors may want a higher rate, but that's not a given. It's going to depend on a variety of factors. For instance, if gov't interest rates are rising, then investors will want more of a return on Sony debt instruments, because those are riskier than gov't bonds. But, if the interest rates are dropping, then Sony debt, or any other company's debt, will become cheaper. Shareholders generally can't demand money. They can either sell their stock or try to oust the board of directors the latter of which is incredibly difficult in a large public company.

So, the idea that they have to just keep on exponentially increasing profits to keep up is just not how it works at all. It is often perfectly fine for a company to remain at a stable and reliable level of profitability, as long as they're keeping up with inflation at the minimum. When a market becomes reaches a saturation point, and I don't know that gaming has, it doesn't just implode. Strategies may have to change, but it's not like "welp, every gamer has entered the market, time to close up shop". 


I'm not saying there isn't a legitimate cause for layoffs, but the OP is not presenting the reality of business. 

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 01 March 2024

1080p is gross and antiquated.

Get rid of exclusives and timed exclusives.  Keep graphic fidelity and just make games shorter.  Not every game needs to be 50+ hours.  Problem solved.

Perhaps I'm making to simple, but spider 2 could have had a good amount of collectibles removed, shorter cut scenes and a bit less side missions.  Launch day 1 PC and sales could be 2x what they currently are.

Big budget games are sustainable.  Big budget exclusives are not sustainable.  

Edit

And of course go digital only and drop the extra cost of physical.

Last edited by Chrkeller - on 01 March 2024

RolStoppable said:

Yeah... no. Absolutely not.

Nintendo didn't lay off developers during the 3DS and Wii U era despite investors asking for cost-cutting measures. Nintendo's response was that development staff is an asset, because games drive hardware sales. Therefore laying off developers would only be a short term benefit, but then have very bad consequences in the mid to long term. And this is the correct thinking.

There were other things that investors repeatedly asked for during the dire Wii U days, but Nintendo did not cave in. That's because Nintendo is not reliant on investors' money to get their funding for their next big project.

We do not need to speculate if Nintendo would take similar actions to Sony and MS, because we already have the history of Nintendo not even considering such moves because such moves would be detrimental to their core business. When we know that Nintendo did not consider these moves when they were posting losses, then it's safe to say that Nintendo won't consider them either when they are in the situation of Sony now where profit margins have declined by around 5 percent points.

The point is that you can't make a post about all companies being the same when that is clearly not the case due to Nintendo being an outlier in so many different aspects of this business. You are making the all too common mistake that you think the industry works this way because that's how it has to work. But Nintendo not only clearly shows that it does not have to be this way, but also that you can actually be more profitable by doing it differently, and that there's no mutual exclusivity between high profitability and high customer satisfaction.

You begin your post by talking about the reality of the real world and end with the question if anyone would rather see their favorite company bite the dust or make as much money as possible by going multiplatform. This conclusion is extremely detached from reality when you've thrown Nintendo in the mix, and even if you explicitly excluded Nintendo from the topic, your conclusion would still only somewhat work.

I still find it a bit puzzling that Sony, despite their current sales and black numbers, would rather do things the Microsoft way than taking a few cues from Nintendo. I'm not talking about the last few months, but the last several years since Jim Ryan took the reins of the PS division. Because clearly, Microsoft is not the company you should strive to be like in gaming. PlayStation is still making profits every quarter, so their recent business decisions strike me as an overreaction that could bite them in the butt in the long run. As a console manufacturer they have to look at first party software as more than just the games making money, but also as a driver of hardware sales which in turn increase collected royalty fees from third parties and PS+ subscriptions; this isn't as simple of an equation as putting games on the PC and making more profit overall by default, because some money is undoubtedly going to be missed out on on the PS console side.

This is where you fail to understand. You are not looking at this as a whole. The Console industry has always been this way, it started when companies were choosing to be different all the time. Did you game during the Nintendo and Sega era? If so, then you would have seen how different companies were back then. Always trying new things to break the market open. The issue we have today is, the market has reached its peak. Unless these manufacturers go full experimental mode with their next line up of consoles, I can't see that happening. It's too risky and many have fallen straight out of the industry for trying to innovate. These companies are playing it safe now, unfortunately playing it safe only keeps the same customers, it doesn't create new customers.

I also don't ever expect Nintendo to put their games on other platforms, not unless they are on the verge of closure, and even then, they probably would rather just die than give up their IPs. In saying that, what I mean is that Nintendo will find ways to please shareholders if they start to fall behind targets. Nintendo have been smart with their approach over the years. They develop affordable hardware and have focused on a market that has been lacking AAA gaming and that's the portable hybrid market. That will soon be flooded with options as the years progress. Its only going to get harder for Nintendo as more competition arrives.

As for Sony following Microsoft's way, it's pretty simple. Sony are not doing enough for their shareholders, and they know they can't compete with Nintendo in the portable market, they have tried many times. Sony are not set up for that style. They have designed their structure to make high budget AAA experiences, it will all need to be shuffled around if they start focusing on Nintendo's way of gaming. 

Xbox might not be doing as good as the other two in raw sales figures; however they are set up for the future, they can adapt and evolve a lot quicker than Sony and Nintendo if the digital, PC, Streaming future started to explode tomorrow.

Last edited by Azzanation - on 01 March 2024

RolStoppable said:

Yeah... no. Absolutely not.

Nintendo didn't lay off developers during the 3DS and Wii U era despite investors asking for cost-cutting measures. Nintendo's response was that development staff is an asset, because games drive hardware sales. Therefore laying off developers would only be a short term benefit, but then have very bad consequences in the mid to long term. And this is the correct thinking.

...

But they did ...

Nintendo lays off 320 workers in Europe

They didn't in Japan, where the law is very strict, and terminating an employee is possible only in extreme cases.