Need is a strong word, but yeah kind of.

At this point it's going to be hard to maintain Switch's momentum without releasing games in their biggest franchises. New Mario Kart, New 3D Mario, etc. If they use those to boost the Switch's momentum, then they won't do as much to help the Switch 2, even if they wind up doing next gen versions. It's time to start focusing their resources on what's next.

I think Nintendo can wait until March 2025. Even if the Switch 1 drops a lot in 2024, I don't think one bad fiscal year would be the end of the world to Nintendo

Any time between November 2024 - March 2025 would be fine, imo.

The important thing is that they announce and moderately tease it in 2024.

I wouldn't mind something similar to what the Switch had. October announcement/teaser, January showcase, March release.

That puts the Switch 2 and Switch 8 years apart, which I expect will be typical for a console generation these next few decades.

Second half of 2025 would probably be too late though.

the switch hardware is already extremely outdated by current standards. The number of games ported to the Switch and sales will decrease drastically in 2024. I don't think Nintendo will release many first party games in 2024 if launching the Switch may have a weak launch in software. The only place where the Switch will maintain good sales in 2024 will be Japan, sales in Europe and America have fallen a lot. A late 2024 launch will be ideal

They don't outright need to but they really should since sales will be down significantly the first half of 2024 so the successor would make them avoid having a weak holiday season. At this point the only reason it doesn't come out in 2024 is if software isn't ready till 2025 which would be mismanagement.

I thoroughly agree with Torpoleon in regards to not releasing a console in the same time-window as Microsoft's Xbox Series X Pro and Sony's PS5 Pro. Both of these will launch in November 2024.

Nintendo is doing their own thing and are not worried about competition, but they don't want to get overlooked. 
Looking at the clues and rumors we have been given we can made a good guesstimate for when the next Nintendo console will release:
Nintendo-related Quotes
Gaming Catalog for 2024
Purchasing Decline of Switch Systems
Nvidia Chips
Twitch loses Switch support
Next Gen Dev Kits

• Alright First some Quotes.
  
  • "We expect Nintendo will not release the next-generation hardware over the next 12 months, Nintendo’s valuation is very likely to shrink until the launch of the new hardware.” -USB Securities. This quote was back before the earnings report in March 2023. So we expect that no new hardware would show up until after March 2024. We have a hard beginning.
  • "We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025," -Furukawa. Nintendo has put their focus to one console at a time. The last Gamecube Nintendo Published game was Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess in December 19, 2006 (I used the lastest released date), 1 month after the Wii. The last Wii Nintendo Published game was Just Dance Wii 2 in July 26, 2012, 4 months before the WiiU released. The last WiiU Nintendo Published Game was Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild in March 3, 2017, the same day as the Switch. Two of these were promised for the console they launched on, and became a big hit on the predecessor console. We have Metroid Prime 4 that has been promised to be on the Switch, if they are going to do what they did to the GCN and WiiU Zelda games, then we should expect Metroid Prime 4 to be the crossover game for the Switch and the next console.
    I personally dont think so, but this is the information we have. So that means that we should expect a console near March 2025. Ok, we have two dates so far, lets see if we can narrow this down.
• Gaming Catalog for 2024.
  
  • Another Code: Recollection. Jan 19th 2024
  • Mario vs Donkey Kong. Feb 16th 2024
    
  • Princess Peach: Showtime! Mar 22nd 2024
  • Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. Summer 2024
  • Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door. 2024
  • Metroid Prime 4 TBA
    Nintendo's Publishing Catalog is looking very slim. 6 possible games. Last year in Dec 2022 we knew of 9 possible games:

• • • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (May 12th)
    • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe (Feb. 24th)
    • Fire Emblem Engage (Jan. 23rd)
    • Disgaea 7 (Jan. 26th)
    • Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon (March 17th)
    • Octopath Traveler II (Feb. 23rd)
    • Persona 4 Golden (Jan. 19th)
    • Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp
    • Metroid Prime 4

                Not looking good. But it certainly looks better than the WiiU's (1 in Spring), Wii's (5 in Spring), and Gamecube's (4 in Spring) last year.

• Purchasing Decline of Switch Systems
  • Mar 2017-Jan 2018 13.12M
  • Jan 2018-Jan 2019 16.37M
  • Jan 2019-Jan 2020 19.34M
  • Jan 2020-Jan 2021 28.46M
  • Jan 2021-Jan 2022 24.04M
  • Jan 2022-Jan 2023 19.04M
  • Jan 2023-Jan 2024 12.55M
    • Switch declined 5M (~-20%) compared 2022-2023 to 2021-2022 & declined 6.49M (~-30%) compared 2023-2024 to 2022-2023. We should expect another -30% drop or more this Jan 2024-Jan 2025. 
    • The WiiU dropped -30% in 2015-2016 and then dropped -90% in 2016-2017
    • The Wii dropped -55% in both 2010-2011 & 2011-2022
    • In comparison to the past two consoles the Switch is still going strong. And has no reason to worry to release the next console in the 2024-2025 year.
• Nvidia Chip Rumors
  • Nvidia will support the next Nintendo console with DLSS 3.5
  • Nvidia T239
  • Nvidia Ampere GPU
  • Nvidia ORIN or ATLAS?
    Looks promising and just rumors.
• Twitch loses Switch Support
  • Twitch has shut down the Twitch app on the Nintendo Switch in January 1st 2024
  • That app could not stream, so I don't think this is a big sign.
• Next Gen Dev Kits
  • On July 31 2023 VGC stated that many developers were given Nintendo's next gen dev kits.
  • As comparison Nintendo Switch, NX, dev kits were first given out early in 2015, and news of it was given in Oct 15th 2015. The Switch was officially announced in Oct 20th 2016. And was released in Mar 3rd 2017.
  • Given this and past information, the Nintendo NG (next gen) will be announced Oct 17th 2024, with a Mar 7th 2025 release.
    
    
    
    

Now that we have checked a lot of data, "trends", rumors, and more. We can assume Spring 2025, March, release date (I personally think a Nov 2024 release date), based off of the dev kit information intertwined with the support for Switch software until March 2025 and the quote from USB Securities regarding the shrink in valuation.

I hope this helped some people get an understanding of what influences game console releases, and if there is more information (concrete, or rumor) I would be happy to know about it and see if that can change my predicton for Spring 2025 date.
Happy New Year!

Nintendo's first and foremost objective is to make money for its shareholders, and shareholders hate declining quarterly statements.

Console development cycles take a long time nowadays and it's very hard to imagine Nintendo began this one betting the generation would last much longer than 6-7 years when their past four generations of home consoles were relatively short-lived. Most things about their next hardware must already be finalized or close to finalized.

So yeah, they don't *need* to, but they *will* release it this year, barring some unforeseen disaster.

I don't think releasing a successor in 2024 is a requirement for the Switch.
The Switch was never about visuals or performance, if they did they would have opted for the Tegra X2.

At the end of the day, selling software -is- more important than selling hardware, so the slowing of hardware sales isn't super important if they are able to still shift 10's of millions of a game in it's first week which is what really brings the profits in.

If Nintendo wanted to extend the Switch's lifetime (And why wouldn't you?), they could release a few updated variants of the Switch hardware.
Switch TV which drops all the mobile stuff and could sell at under $99 US.
Or a mobile only Switch lite with a 7" display rather than the tiny 5.5" panel.

Release some games like Metroid Prime 4, Paper Mario, StarFox, Pokemon... You can easily extend the platform for another 12 months.

Still. Newer hardware would be nice. - I am always chasing for better visuals, I just don't think in Nintendo's case it's super important as they don't push visuals like other platforms.

Only problem with an early-2025 launch would be GTAVI completely overshadowing the Switch successor during its first holiday. Plus, it would also have to battle a newly-launched PS6/Xbox in its third-year: This may destabilize sales figures in what should be the successors best year(s).

Absolutely. They benefited tremendously from Switch launching 3 years earlier than Series X/S/PS5. With 2027 being a hypothetical launch time for PS6/Xbox5, launching in 2024 would likewise give them another 3 year window to do well.