Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[Shtinamin_]

Torpoleon said:

With it being all but confirmed at this point that we are getting hardware revisions for both PS5 & XSX later this year, maybe an early 2025 launch would be better for Nintendo, kind of like how Switch didn't launch in the same time frame of the PS4 Slim/Pro & Xbox One S/X.

I mean they could still have a Pokemon game for late 2024 and maybe something like a new 2D Donkey Kong. And like I mentioned, that would make 2025 such a huge year for Nintendo (and gaming in general).

March: Switch 2 Launch with 3D Mario

April: Mario Kart

May: Metroid Prime 4

June: Animal Crossing

September: Mario Party

November: Pokemon Gen 10

These are just rough estimates and obviously doesn't include every big idea they could have, like maybe a Zelda remake.

CourageTCD said:

I think Nintendo can wait until March 2025. Even if the Switch 1 drops a lot in 2024, I don't think one bad fiscal year would be the end of the world to Nintendo

I thoroughly agree with Torpoleon in regards to not releasing a console in the same time-window as Microsoft's Xbox Series X Pro and Sony's PS5 Pro. Both of these will launch in November 2024.

Nintendo is doing their own thing and are not worried about competition, but they don't want to get overlooked. 
Looking at the clues and rumors we have been given we can made a good guesstimate for when the next Nintendo console will release:
Nintendo-related Quotes
Gaming Catalog for 2024
Purchasing Decline of Switch Systems
Nvidia Chips
Twitch loses Switch support
Next Gen Dev Kits

• Alright First some Quotes.
  
  • "We expect Nintendo will not release the next-generation hardware over the next 12 months, Nintendo’s valuation is very likely to shrink until the launch of the new hardware.” -USB Securities. This quote was back before the earnings report in March 2023. So we expect that no new hardware would show up until after March 2024. We have a hard beginning.
  • "We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025," -Furukawa. Nintendo has put their focus to one console at a time. The last Gamecube Nintendo Published game was Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess in December 19, 2006 (I used the lastest released date), 1 month after the Wii. The last Wii Nintendo Published game was Just Dance Wii 2 in July 26, 2012, 4 months before the WiiU released. The last WiiU Nintendo Published Game was Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild in March 3, 2017, the same day as the Switch. Two of these were promised for the console they launched on, and became a big hit on the predecessor console. We have Metroid Prime 4 that has been promised to be on the Switch, if they are going to do what they did to the GCN and WiiU Zelda games, then we should expect Metroid Prime 4 to be the crossover game for the Switch and the next console.
    I personally dont think so, but this is the information we have. So that means that we should expect a console near March 2025. Ok, we have two dates so far, lets see if we can narrow this down.
• Gaming Catalog for 2024.
  
  • Another Code: Recollection. Jan 19th 2024
  • Mario vs Donkey Kong. Feb 16th 2024
    
  • Princess Peach: Showtime! Mar 22nd 2024
  • Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. Summer 2024
  • Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door. 2024
  • Metroid Prime 4 TBA
    Nintendo's Publishing Catalog is looking very slim. 6 possible games. Last year in Dec 2022 we knew of 9 possible games:

• • • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (May 12th)
    • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe (Feb. 24th)
    • Fire Emblem Engage (Jan. 23rd)
    • Disgaea 7 (Jan. 26th)
    • Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon (March 17th)
    • Octopath Traveler II (Feb. 23rd)
    • Persona 4 Golden (Jan. 19th)
    • Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp
    • Metroid Prime 4

                Not looking good. But it certainly looks better than the WiiU's (1 in Spring), Wii's (5 in Spring), and Gamecube's (4 in Spring) last year.

• Purchasing Decline of Switch Systems
  • Mar 2017-Jan 2018 13.12M
  • Jan 2018-Jan 2019 16.37M
  • Jan 2019-Jan 2020 19.34M
  • Jan 2020-Jan 2021 28.46M
  • Jan 2021-Jan 2022 24.04M
  • Jan 2022-Jan 2023 19.04M
  • Jan 2023-Jan 2024 12.55M
    • Switch declined 5M (~-20%) compared 2022-2023 to 2021-2022 & declined 6.49M (~-30%) compared 2023-2024 to 2022-2023. We should expect another -30% drop or more this Jan 2024-Jan 2025. 
    • The WiiU dropped -30% in 2015-2016 and then dropped -90% in 2016-2017
    • The Wii dropped -55% in both 2010-2011 & 2011-2022
    • In comparison to the past two consoles the Switch is still going strong. And has no reason to worry to release the next console in the 2024-2025 year.
• Nvidia Chip Rumors
  • Nvidia will support the next Nintendo console with DLSS 3.5
  • Nvidia T239
  • Nvidia Ampere GPU
  • Nvidia ORIN or ATLAS?
    Looks promising and just rumors.
• Twitch loses Switch Support
  • Twitch has shut down the Twitch app on the Nintendo Switch in January 1st 2024
  • That app could not stream, so I don't think this is a big sign.
• Next Gen Dev Kits
  • On July 31 2023 VGC stated that many developers were given Nintendo's next gen dev kits.
  • As comparison Nintendo Switch, NX, dev kits were first given out early in 2015, and news of it was given in Oct 15th 2015. The Switch was officially announced in Oct 20th 2016. And was released in Mar 3rd 2017.
  • Given this and past information, the Nintendo NG (next gen) will be announced Oct 17th 2024, with a Mar 7th 2025 release.
    
    
    
    

Now that we have checked a lot of data, "trends", rumors, and more. We can assume Spring 2025, March, release date (I personally think a Nov 2024 release date), based off of the dev kit information intertwined with the support for Switch software until March 2025 and the quote from USB Securities regarding the shrink in valuation.

I hope this helped some people get an understanding of what influences game console releases, and if there is more information (concrete, or rumor) I would be happy to know about it and see if that can change my predicton for Spring 2025 date.
Happy New Year!