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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Should Xbox End their Generation Early?

 

What year should Xbox start the next generation?

2025 9 14.06%
 
2026 11 17.19%
 
2027 19 29.69%
 
2028 16 25.00%
 
2029 9 14.06%
 
Total:64
twintail said:
smroadkill15 said:

That's bound to happen anyways. Pushing a new console might cause some disruption.

In a situation Xbox is releasing a next gen console, launching the same year as PS6 is better choice to see improved hardware sales? I don't think so. That's why doing something different gives them an opportunity at least. 

Sure, it might. But I don't think timing is the issue here, but rather the inroads MS are making into other regions. We had a thread not too long-ago detailing MS's poor translation practices when it comes to EU, which honestly feels like a major blocker to them gaining ground in the region. And there's the issue with 1st party software that's either been bogged down with issues or failed to push marketshare in their favour. I'd argue that MS's current strategy for getting 3rd party exclusives (requiring day 1 gamepass) doesn't help either. 

Even if MS pushed their next console early, they'd still have to contend with these issues, and nothing is really going to change if they don't. And that's not even taking into account having to vie for attention with a cheaper PS5 (and Pro model) that would be attracting a lot of software just from Sony itself, and their incubation programmes like China Hero/ India Hero projects in a theoretical release of 2026.

MS certainly needs to make bigger strides in EU and Asia. Like you said, their translation issues are part of this. I will say, Xbox already did the hard part, which is growing their 1st party studios and games portfolio. The quality has been there this gen. Redfall being really the only bad game they have released. That was more of a communication issue between Xbox and Bethesda. Xbox gaming division had a big shake up in leadership this year not long ago. Part of that is to prevent issues like with Redfall going forward. Their biggest issue has been a consistent cadence of AAA releases this gen. It makes sense they have struggled early on this gen since most of their studios started making 1st party games in the last 1-5 years. Most studios still haven't released their first game being owned by Xbox. Then add covid delays and the amount of time it takes to make games now. This year, Xbox did have a good year in game releases. Next year is already looking solid. It will only keep improving so that's why I'm not concerned when it comes to getting games out. 

As far as EU efforts, translation should be cake compared to what they have already accomplished if they decide to do something about it. How are the translation in CoD and other ABK games? They could probably get that team to help Xbox in this department. As far as Asia goes, they are doing a lot to make improvements. Such as hiring the right people like Mena Kato. 

As I said in another reply. Xbox doesn't need to outsell Playstation to be successful. I feel like a lot of people think this needs to happen for Xbox to do well, but it's not the case. I think a new console is the kind of refresh they need. Especially if they can get some serious 1st party games ready in the 1st year or 2. CoD as a launch game with that marketing will get people to buy. 



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Soundwave said:

I kind of feel like it's partly a way to get a bit outside of the Call of Duty contract requirements.

If they have more powerful hardware they can justify Call of Duty on "Next Box" having the best graphics and just say "well it's not our problem that Sony is still in the PS5 generation, we're fulfilling our contractual obligations, but if you want the best version of the game, buy our new XBox".  They could have a window of 1-2 years where they can claim that and try to entice COD players to jump ship. 

This probably sounds like the best course of action for Microsoft being highly relevant in the console space, and COD would be the way to do it.

There would still be the COD for the Xbox Series, PS5 and Switch 2 that everyone expects, but if there was a bona-fide "next-gen" version that came out on the new Xbox, that might be the one way they usher in the next generation before Sony is ready to move on from the PS5.  Obviously the PS6 would be more powerful when it arrives, but if "Xbox 5" launched in 2025 it could build a good install base by then.  All the current games of gen 9 would still come to it and with the best performance (perhaps a bundle with GTA6?) but it would be a platform for true next-gen games as well for both Microsoft and 3rd parties.

Of course this could backfire tremendously but it could work out well here in the west where COD is massive and we love our fancy graphics.  Honestly, I don't see a better solution for them.



A "next-gen" version of a multplat CoD would do nothing to a new Xbox. Actually, even a CoD that skips Playstation consoles would not necessarily result in a massive increase to the new Xbox's baseline. Because most CoD fans on Playstation would probably be switching to PC instead. CoD leaving Playstation would hurt Playstation more than it helps Xbox.

Xbox's main problem is obviously PC day 1 support. PC is the shit these days. Not even Nintendo and Sony systems are as compelling overall. More and more people will realize how similar modern PC's are to consoles in terms of ease of use, and will enjoy its many advantages. As long as both Sony and Microsoft support PC, it will eat into their market or limit their growth potential, starting with Xbox which has no significant advantages over PC.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 25 December 2023

I was late to this thread, but IMO I think Xbox should jumpstart next gen early (I voted 2026) and I also think they should do basically a soft reboot of the entire brand.

This isn’t even because of the current console sales, but the simple fact that at this point Microsoft gaming is a radically, *radically* different company than it was at the start of 9th gen. Since the Series X was announced at the end of 2019, Microsoft has purchased 2 of the largest western publishers and become the largest employer of game developers in the world.

I think a big reboot of the brand to reflect these changes is in order. Keep calling it Xbox, and keep using the color green, but everything else is on the table to mix up



The main problem with an early release is that a generational leap (say, 4090-tier hardware at console prices) isn't there. If you're lucky, a 2025-2026 release will get you a very early and expensive N2 with no backside power delivery, but more likely just N3. The latter is only twice as efficient and dense as the N7 node used in the 9th gen consoles. Not good enough unless you want to rely heavily on FG/ML upscaling.

Mind, the problem doesn't get much better in 2028, but at least by then some of this stuff will get a bit cheaper, and people will be more likely to take what they can get if they've been gaming for 5+ years in the same hardware. Maybe it works if you just want a reboot of the brand to play the same games at higher resolutions and framerates - I don't know, that's sort of what the Pro consoles are for already.



 

 

 

 

 

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Kyuu said:

A "next-gen" version of a multplat CoD would do nothing to a new Xbox. Actually, even a CoD that skips Playstation consoles would not necessarily result in a massive increase to the new Xbox's baseline. Because most CoD fans on Playstation would probably be switching to PC instead. CoD leaving Playstation would hurt Playstation more than it helps Xbox.

Xbox's main problem is obviously PC day 1 support. PC is the shit these days. Not even Nintendo and Sony systems are as compelling overall. More and more people will realize how similar modern PC's are to consoles in terms of ease of use, and will enjoy its many advantages. As long as both Sony and Microsoft support PC, it will eat into their market or limit their growth potential, starting with Xbox which has no significant advantages over PC.

Easy to make such a claim because CoD isn't leaving PS.

Lets just look at the evidence. When the 360 had CoD marketing, it clearly effected Xbox in a positive way. Even early 8th gen marketing helped the Xbox One. Then playstation saw a nice bump in consoles sold and Cod software increase until even the most recent release. But now Xbox will get it again and with Game Pass day 1, it will do nothing. Got it.

Regardless, more people switching to PC from PS helps MS and gives them more opportunities to sell their games or get Game Pass. Xbox is just another option for those who prefer consoles. 

We will see next year if Xbox getting Cod marketing will have a positive effect on Xbox sales. If it does, then I say it's a safe bet it will also help with a next gen Xbox. 



Kyuu said:

A "next-gen" version of a multplat CoD would do nothing to a new Xbox. Actually, even a CoD that skips Playstation consoles would not necessarily result in a massive increase to the new Xbox's baseline. Because most CoD fans on Playstation would probably be switching to PC instead. CoD leaving Playstation would hurt Playstation more than it helps Xbox.

Xbox's main problem is obviously PC day 1 support. PC is the shit these days. Not even Nintendo and Sony systems are as compelling overall. More and more people will realize how similar modern PC's are to consoles in terms of ease of use, and will enjoy its many advantages. As long as both Sony and Microsoft support PC, it will eat into their market or limit their growth potential, starting with Xbox which has no significant advantages over PC.

There is a price barrier to PC gaming, if you want the top of line graphics.  Spending thousands initially, and having to keep upgrading expensive parts if you want the best graphics out of it.



I disagree strongly that Xbox’s issue is PC day 1 support, and I also disagree that PlayStation fans would just go to PC to play COD in the event of exclusivity. There are huge number of console only gamers who simply will not buy and PC capable of playing games and never will.

Xbox’s biggest problem right now is lack of product differentiation vis-a-vis PlayStation. There is basically no difference between a Series X and a PS5. So if you switched to PlayStation in 8th gen, what incentive do you have to switch back to Xbox?

I think Xbox needs more than just exclusive content to get people back into the ecosystem. The next console needs to do something unique, or come in at an absolutely killer price, or some combination of the two, in addition to the exclusive content



smroadkill15 said:
curl-6 said:

Releasing a new console won't solve the problem.

The problem, which has crippled them for over a decade now, is their complete inability to release a consistent stream of quality software. 

Nintendo and Sony manage to put out acclaimed and well made games on a regular basis; Microsoft's last one was what, Forze Horizon 5 two whole years ago? And they haven't had a proper killer app since the Xbox 360 two generations ago. It's ridiculous.

Software sells hardware and as long as they continue to mismanage their development side as they have for the past 10 years, people will be less and less inclined to buy their consoles and they may as well just go third party. They need a radical overhaul of the whole Xbox division. Stop sinking years into the development of games with no system selling potential. Focus on building the kind of developer culture that drives Nintendo and Sony's first party output.

Releasing a new console in 2026 or earlier risks losing the few loyal customers they have left. 2027 wouldn't be so bad though; but they need to make sure that they have the software ready; learn from how Nintendo got the Switch off to a flying start with a first year stacked with great games. Otherwise, they'll just end up in the same situation all over again; stalling in sales because their console has "no games".

The whole argument the xbox division is the same as it has been the beginning of last gen is not accurate at all. They have radically overhauled their Xbox division since 2018 and how they manage their 1st party studios. It just takes longer than ever to release games now, along with covid delaying everything. Most of their studios didn't start making first party games for them until the last 2-4 years. 

It's not like MS is the only one going through this. Sony is going through their own delay woes currently, which is okay and normal. Sony had more ready to go to start the gen, but it's catching up with them. The difference is, Sony benefits from bigger brand awareness, even if they have an objectively worse year than the competition. It doesn't effect them from a sales perspective. 

Xbox's last critically acclaimed game was Hifi Rush earlier this. Followed by 2 solid releases with Starfield and Forza Motorsport, along with a handful solid smaller 1st party games too. Their efforts started showing this year. Next year is looking great for xbox. 

The thing is though, they've had what, ten years now to sort out their first party woes? At some point they need to show results, not just promises. Yes, games take longer to make now, but that's why they should sorted this stuff out sooner. It's no good waiting until your system has burned out to start releasing your big guns.

Hifi Rush is cool and all, and does seem to be a good game, but that sort of thing is no match for the likes of Tears of the Kingdom, Mario Wonder, or Spiderman. Not many people are going to drop $500 on a new console to play Hifi Rush.



haxxiy said:

The main problem with an early release is that a generational leap (say, 4090-tier hardware at console prices) isn't there. If you're lucky, a 2025-2026 release will get you a very early and expensive N2 with no backside power delivery, but more likely just N3. The latter is only twice as efficient and dense as the N7 node used in the 9th gen consoles. Not good enough unless you want to rely heavily on FG/ML upscaling.

Mind, the problem doesn't get much better in 2028, but at least by then some of this stuff will get a bit cheaper, and people will be more likely to take what they can get if they've been gaming for 5+ years in the same hardware. Maybe it works if you just want a reboot of the brand to play the same games at higher resolutions and framerates - I don't know, that's sort of what the Pro consoles are for already.

It's not just fabrication process that brings improvements.
It's architecture. It's packaging. It's smart chip design and choices.

At the moment the Xbox Series X has a single chip which is monolithic... But running at a slow speed.
Comprising of 3328:208:80:52 (Shader:TMU:ROP:RT) running at 1825Mhz.

It's performance is roughly equivalent to a Radeon 6750XT... Which is comprised of 2560:160:64:40 functional units. (Shader:TMU:ROP:RT) running at 2321Mhz.
AMD traded die size for clockspeed and came out with the same answer.

The equivalent 7000 series would have offered a good 15-20% performance gain just by going to N5+N6 nodes and changes to architecture.

But it's not just Teraflops, bandwidth, geometry throughput and large chips that will dictate a chips capability going forth, A.I is now a thing, Ray Tracing is a thing, the console with the best Ray Tracing capabilities can have a substantial advantage.

***

What I am going to surmise is that Microsoft opted for a large chip, just to counteract what Sony may opt for... If Sony's hardware specifications ended up exceeding Microsoft's, Microsoft could have increased clockspeeds at the last minute to maintain their hardware advantage.

Just like what Microsoft did with the Xbox One's clockspeed increase at the last minute... Although there was no closing that massive gap.

***

As for what improvements AMD can bring to the table come 2026... We are already getting some rumors and movement on that front with the potential 3D V-Cache, TSMC N2 node getting denser libraries and gate-all-around-transistors ready for 2026, but N3 would be the sensible node to settle on.

Should be an interesting few years at any rate... Especially as we have entered the era of Ray Tracing and A.I, the standard cadence, expectancy and improvements are going to be very different going forth.




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