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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

UnderwaterFunktown on 07 December 2023

Revenue: 1.35 bil

[PS5] 1.8 mil
[NS] 900k
[XBS] 550k



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2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

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Panicradio on 07 December 2023

Man, I am about to scrap my predictions made earlier. At least for hardware sales.

So, if we are talking about global November hardware sales, is it just me or does anyone else think Europe November hardware sales for the PS5 will be higher than Americas, not just in the US?

Looking at the October sales, PS5 was already at 621k and it's likely they were a bit less in anticipation of the Slim and Black Friday/Monday/Week offers a month later. As everywhere else.

I really really find it hard to predict. Since I picture November 2023 to be the first month ever since launch that the PS5 can fully flex it's potential in sales.

But here I go. My estimates for global November hardware sales:

1. PS5 - 3.35m
2. Switch - 2.69m
3. Xbox Series - 1.45m



DonFerrari on 07 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
DonFerrari said:

The whole year in basically all markets Xbox have been like 1/3 of PS sales so it being over 1/2 seems like a high number imho.

That makes sense. Xbox has had a rough generation. Ill go for Xbox Series 1.12M then. And that's based on if everything goes right for them.
Thanks for the background info!

For USA I do believe your closer sales number will be achieved



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Shtinamin_ on 07 December 2023
DonFerrari said:
Shtinamin_ said:

That makes sense. Xbox has had a rough generation. Ill go for Xbox Series 1.12M then. And that's based on if everything goes right for them.
Thanks for the background info!

For USA I do believe your closer sales number will be achieved

Thanks, yeah I think that is very doable for all three. I personally would love Switch to sell more (kinda bias) but my logic brain brings me back to reality. Haha



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

DonFerrari on 07 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
DonFerrari said:

For USA I do believe your closer sales number will be achieved

Thanks, yeah I think that is very doable for all three. I personally would love Switch to sell more (kinda bias) but my logic brain brings me back to reality. Haha

Well Switch is doing superb and actually just to high for a 7th year system, wouldn't be surprised if it had another massive holiday (but haven't seem massive discounts for it though).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Shtinamin_ on 07 December 2023
DonFerrari said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Thanks, yeah I think that is very doable for all three. I personally would love Switch to sell more (kinda bias) but my logic brain brings me back to reality. Haha

Well Switch is doing superb and actually just to high for a 7th year system, wouldn't be surprised if it had another massive holiday (but haven't seem massive discounts for it though).

It is very impressive indeed for a 7th year. 

If we are seeing massive discounts for the Switch, I'd be thinking that the next console is soon, so not seeing discounts is a good sign it wont be soon.
Maybe next holiday season there will be a discount.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

kazuyamishima on 07 December 2023

November 2022 Leaks:
PS5: 1.328m.
Xbox Series: 0.73m
Nintendo Switch: ???

Data from Installbase.

with November 2023 being from October 29th to November 25th, anything flat or up YoY for PS5 and Xbox Series consoles will be goodish, considering Cyber Week is not included until December 2023.



Shtinamin_ on 07 December 2023
kazuyamishima said:

November 2022 Leaks:
PS5: 1.328m.
Xbox Series: 0.73m
Nintendo Switch: ???

Data from Installbase.

with November 2023 being from October 29th to November 25th, anything flat or up YoY for PS5 and Xbox Series consoles will be goodish, considering Cyber Week is not included until December 2023.

Did you mean 2023 leaks?

Because we have the November 2022 estimates from trunkswd

  1. NS: 2.83M
  2. PS5: 2.42M
  3. XSX|S: 1.20M


Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

trunkswd on 07 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
kazuyamishima said:

November 2022 Leaks:
PS5: 1.328m.
Xbox Series: 0.73m
Nintendo Switch: ???

Data from Installbase.

with November 2023 being from October 29th to November 25th, anything flat or up YoY for PS5 and Xbox Series consoles will be goodish, considering Cyber Week is not included until December 2023.

Did you mean 2023 leaks?

Because we have the November 2022 estimates from trunkswd

  1. NS: 2.83M
  2. PS5: 2.42M
  3. XSX|S: 1.20M

Those leaks are NPD/Circana leaks for November 2022. Which is just US data. The figures I posted are worldwide estimates.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

zorg1000 on 07 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
kazuyamishima said:

November 2022 Leaks:
PS5: 1.328m.
Xbox Series: 0.73m
Nintendo Switch: ???

Data from Installbase.

with November 2023 being from October 29th to November 25th, anything flat or up YoY for PS5 and Xbox Series consoles will be goodish, considering Cyber Week is not included until December 2023.

Did you mean 2023 leaks?

Because we have the November 2022 estimates from trunkswd

  1. NS: 2.83M
  2. PS5: 2.42M
  3. XSX|S: 1.20M

That’s global, this thread is about USA

edit: just saw this was already addressed



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