By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

Going to be optimistic.

PS5 - 2,3m
XS - 1m
Nsw - 1m



Around the Network

Man, despite recently entering its fourth year already, I find it extremely difficult to predict hardware sales for the PS5. Just so much dynamics behind. I go with:

1. PS5 - 2.1m
2. Switch - 1.4m
3. Xbox Series - 900k


Software:

1. Call of Duty
2. Spiderman 2
3. Super Mario Bros.
4. EA FC 24
5. Hogwarts Legacy
6. Madden
7. Mortal Kombat 1
8. Assassin's Creed Mirage
9. UFC 5
10. Alan Wake 2

Last edited by Panicradio - on 03 December 2023

PS5: 2.4M
Switch: 1.7M
Xbox Series: 850k

Switch should still sell 1 million in the BF week. PS5 1.5M in the BF week.



PS5: 2 million
Switch 1.25 million
Xbox 750k



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

CosmicSex said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that this may be one of the lowest Xbox November's ever.

PS5 [1,500,000]
NSW [1,000,000]
XSX. [540,000]

What gives it away is the sudden fire sale in the US. It's not much cheaper than Black Friday. It feels like MS panicked.

Well there would be lower Novembers from Xbox as their previous consoles got tail end for most of their (or all) of their consoles. But if you are talking about lowest 4th November on the market USA numbers it is quite possible among the lowest side.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
Panicradio said:

Man, despite recently entering its fourth year already, I find it extremely difficult to predict hardware sales for the PS5. Just so much dynamics behind. I go with:

1. PS5 - 2.1m
2. Switch - 1.4m
3. Xbox Series - 900k


Software:

1. Call of Duty
2. Spiderman 2
3. Super Mario Bros.
4. EA FC 24
5. Hogwarts Legacy
6. Madden
7. Mortal Kombat 1
8. Assassin's Creed Mirage
9. UFC 5
10. Alan Wake 2

Does anyone think that Spiderman 2 or Super Mario Bros (or both) can upstage COD on November's NPD?



DonFerrari said:
CosmicSex said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that this may be one of the lowest Xbox November's ever.

PS5 [1,500,000]
NSW [1,000,000]
XSX. [540,000]

What gives it away is the sudden fire sale in the US. It's not much cheaper than Black Friday. It feels like MS panicked.

Well there would be lower Novembers from Xbox as their previous consoles got tail end for most of their (or all) of their consoles. But if you are talking about lowest 4th November on the market USA numbers it is quite possible among the lowest side.

Yes I think you are right.  It will probably be the lowest 4th November in Xbox history.  I also think that the current Fire Sales will help them make up some ground in December. 



CosmicSex said:
Panicradio said:

Man, despite recently entering its fourth year already, I find it extremely difficult to predict hardware sales for the PS5. Just so much dynamics behind. I go with:

1. PS5 - 2.1m
2. Switch - 1.4m
3. Xbox Series - 900k


Software:

1. Call of Duty
2. Spiderman 2
3. Super Mario Bros.
4. EA FC 24
5. Hogwarts Legacy
6. Madden
7. Mortal Kombat 1
8. Assassin's Creed Mirage
9. UFC 5
10. Alan Wake 2

Does anyone think that Spiderman 2 or Super Mario Bros (or both) can upstage COD on November's NPD?

Call of Duty has been the best-selling game every year in the US for nearly 20 years, except for the years GTA5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 launched. So having Call of Duty as number one in November is a safe bet to make.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
CosmicSex said:

Does anyone think that Spiderman 2 or Super Mario Bros (or both) can upstage COD on November's NPD?

Call of Duty has been the best-selling game every year in the US for nearly 20 years, except for the years GTA5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 launched. So having Call of Duty as number one in November is a safe bet to make.

It may lose full year total, but November alone would be very hard.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Best selling console WorldWide November 2023
1. PS5 2.64M
2. Switch 1.93M
3. Xbox Series X/S 1.72M

Best selling video game worldwide November 2023
1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III
2. Super Mario Bros. Wonder
3. Marvel's Spider-Man 2
4. EA Sports FC 24
5. Hogwarts Legacy
6. Battlefield 2042
7. Baldur's Gate 3
8. Minecraft
9. Lethal Company
10. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe


PS5 has sold around 0.8M in UK alone and .23M in Japan. I think Americas will sell 1M easy, and rest of Europe around .53M, and the rest of the world .08M.
Switch has sold around .31M in Japan alone.
Xbox Series sold around .1M in UK alone and .01M in Japan. I think my Xbox Series prediction is high. Oh, well. I'll still stand by it.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 06 December 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.