Means my Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra is a hybrid.
Means my Samsung Galaxy Tab S9 is a hybrid.
Means my Microsoft Surface laptop is a Hybrid.

It means that literally every tablet, phone and laptop I have owned in the last 20 years is essentially a Hybrid.

They aren't... But you get where I am going with it.

They are mobile devices with output/dock functionality, that's it.

The Switch literally is built 100% around mobile technology.

No, and I think everyone knows the reason why I would think that. But I'm not going to say it because... wait...

We... we really can say it out loud now without being ridiculed.

I'M FREE! HAHA!

*ahem*

Yeah. What they said. The Switch 2 won't outsell the Switch mainly because the latter got a big boost from the COVID bump.

The Switch formula is a guaranteed hit, though, and I think it will sell very well, probably somewhere in the 110-130M range. As long as Nintendo keeps delivering on the software front, the can play it safe and still expect to sell well over 100M every generation. They don't need to do anything massively radical anymore, just successively more powerful versions of the Switch.

Since the pandemic boost has been mentioned quite a bit, what do you guys think Switch sales would currently be without it?

No, and I think everyone knows the reason why I would think that. But I'm not going to say it because... wait...

We... we really can say it out loud now without being ridiculed.

I'M FREE! HAHA!

*ahem*

Yeah. What they said. The Switch 2 won't outsell the Switch mainly because the latter got a big boost from the COVID bump.

The Switch formula is a guaranteed hit, though, and I think it will sell very well, probably somewhere in the 110-130M range. As long as Nintendo keeps delivering on the software front, the can play it safe and still expect to sell well over 100M every generation. They don't need to do anything massively radical anymore, just successively more powerful versions of the Switch.

Yeah looking back it is wild that people were genuinely arguing that Animal Crossing was as big or an even bigger factor in Switch sales exploding that year than a massive global phenomenon that forced people indoors and pushed them towards forms of entertainment like video games.

For 2020 it probably would've finished somewhere in the early 20's so I'd guess a fair amount lower. Still would've for sure gone past 130m in the end though unless it delayed the launch of the successor by a year.

Since the pandemic boost has been mentioned quite a bit, what do you guys think Switch sales would currently be without it?

I’m curious what games were delayed because of Covid, looking at holiday 2020 they had no massive titles and I have a hard time believing they would willingly not have one.

10m+ Q4 titles

2017-Mario Odyssey

2018-Mario Party+Pokemon Lets Go+Smash Bros

2019-Luigi’s Mansion+Ring Fit+Pokemon Sword/Shield

2020-

2021-Mario Party+Pokemon BD/SP

2022-Pokemon Scarlet/Violet

2023-Mario Wonder

Every holiday quarter has had at least 1 and as many as 3 games that go on to sell over 10 million units except for 2020 where the biggest game was Hyrule Warriors 2 which sold 4 million which makes me believe something was pushed back.

Mario Party Superstars might've been 2020 originally. Two years would've been a short gap but considering there had been an MP game every year from 2015-2018 it wouldn't be abnormal for that series.

It would be essentially the same.  What happened is that Switch did get a boost of a few million in 2020, but these sales would have happened eventually anyway, just in later years.  My evidence comes from both Animal Crossing sales and South Korea sales.

Switch hardware is not the only thing that got a sales bump during COVID.  Animal Crossing: New Horizons also got a big sales bump.  However, previous Animal Crossing games tend to sell differently.  They tend to have very strong legs without being frontloaded the first year.  New Horizons has decent legs, but not in comparison to the amazing sales that it got in 2020.  Usually an Animal Crossing game will have better legs in comparison to first year sales.

However, South Korea is different.  South Korea did not have serious lockdowns like the rest of the world.  They had suffered other pandemics prior to COVID, and so they were prepared for COVID and did not have serious lockdowns like the rest of the world did in 2020.  When you look at the South Korea sales charts, you will find that Animal Crossing: New Horizons had very good legs, often appearing in the weekly top 5 in both 2021 and 2022.  In South Korea, New Horizons sold more like previous Animal Crossing games with stronger legs in later years compared to sales in the first year.

So, what I am saying is that Animal Crossing: New Horizons would have sold around the same amount, lifetime, regardless of COVID.  What COVID did to New Horizons is that it sold more games in 2020 and less in later years, but without COVID lifetime sales would have been about the same.  Similarly, Switch got a bump in 2020, but these sales would have happened anyway.  There was simply more Switch sales in 2020 at the expense of sales in later years.

Animal Crossing on Switch has sold 4x more than the DS game which had a bigger install base. The only thing which comes close in comparison of growth is Breathe of the wild which has almost sold 3x Twilight Princess but BOTW had a massive overhaul in gameplay/aesthetic to appeal to new audiences whereas AC Switch was essentially more of the same compared to new leaf on the DS. The Pandemic may have shorted its legs but that's irrelevant if it sold in that year 2x more what a normal AC game would sell LT.

And it's typical for Switch games to peak over their successors but again nothing in comparison what we saw with Animal Crossing 

The Pandemic ignited a momentum in Switch sales which is still being felt now. Pure speculation but I think the difference in sales it would made is like 15m/20m and without it I think the Switch would not only of had an earlier & lower peak but a steeper decline and replacement.