Will the Switch's successor outsell the original Switch?

[zorg1000]

Norion said:

Shadow1980 said:

No, and I think everyone knows the reason why I would think that. But I'm not going to say it because... wait...

We... we really can say it out loud now without being ridiculed.

I'M FREE! HAHA!

*ahem*

Yeah. What they said. The Switch 2 won't outsell the Switch mainly because the latter got a big boost from the COVID bump.

The Switch formula is a guaranteed hit, though, and I think it will sell very well, probably somewhere in the 110-130M range. As long as Nintendo keeps delivering on the software front, the can play it safe and still expect to sell well over 100M every generation. They don't need to do anything massively radical anymore, just successively more powerful versions of the Switch.

Yeah looking back it is wild that people were genuinely arguing that Animal Crossing was as big or an even bigger factor in Switch sales exploding that year than a massive global phenomenon that forced people indoors and pushed them towards forms of entertainment like video games.

zorg1000 said:

Since the pandemic boost has been mentioned quite a bit, what do you guys think Switch sales would currently be without it?

For 2020 it probably would've finished somewhere in the early 20's so I'd guess a fair amount lower. Still would've for sure gone past 130m in the end though unless it delayed the launch of the successor by a year.

I’m curious what games were delayed because of Covid, looking at holiday 2020 they had no massive titles and I have a hard time believing they would willingly not have one.

10m+ Q4 titles

2017-Mario Odyssey

2018-Mario Party+Pokemon Lets Go+Smash Bros

2019-Luigi’s Mansion+Ring Fit+Pokemon Sword/Shield

2020-

2021-Mario Party+Pokemon BD/SP

2022-Pokemon Scarlet/Violet

2023-Mario Wonder

Every holiday quarter has had at least 1 and as many as 3 games that go on to sell over 10 million units except for 2020 where the biggest game was Hyrule Warriors 2 which sold 4 million which makes me believe something was pushed back.