Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
It would be essentially the same. What happened is that Switch did get a boost of a few million in 2020, but these sales would have happened eventually anyway, just in later years. My evidence comes from both Animal Crossing sales and South Korea sales. Switch hardware is not the only thing that got a sales bump during COVID. Animal Crossing: New Horizons also got a big sales bump. However, previous Animal Crossing games tend to sell differently. They tend to have very strong legs without being frontloaded the first year. New Horizons has decent legs, but not in comparison to the amazing sales that it got in 2020. Usually an Animal Crossing game will have better legs in comparison to first year sales. However, South Korea is different. South Korea did not have serious lockdowns like the rest of the world. They had suffered other pandemics prior to COVID, and so they were prepared for COVID and did not have serious lockdowns like the rest of the world did in 2020. When you look at the South Korea sales charts, you will find that Animal Crossing: New Horizons had very good legs, often appearing in the weekly top 5 in both 2021 and 2022. In South Korea, New Horizons sold more like previous Animal Crossing games with stronger legs in later years compared to sales in the first year. So, what I am saying is that Animal Crossing: New Horizons would have sold around the same amount, lifetime, regardless of COVID. What COVID did to New Horizons is that it sold more games in 2020 and less in later years, but without COVID lifetime sales would have been about the same. Similarly, Switch got a bump in 2020, but these sales would have happened anyway. There was simply more Switch sales in 2020 at the expense of sales in later years. |
Animal Crossing on Switch has sold 4x more than the DS game which had a bigger install base. The only thing which comes close in comparison of growth is Breathe of the wild which has almost sold 3x Twilight Princess but BOTW had a massive overhaul in gameplay/aesthetic to appeal to new audiences whereas AC Switch was essentially more of the same compared to new leaf on the DS. The Pandemic may have shorted its legs but that's irrelevant if it sold in that year 2x more what a normal AC game would sell LT.
And it's typical for Switch games to peak over their successors but again nothing in comparison what we saw with Animal Crossing
The Pandemic ignited a momentum in Switch sales which is still being felt now. Pure speculation but I think the difference in sales it would made is like 15m/20m and without it I think the Switch would not only of had an earlier & lower peak but a steeper decline and replacement.
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Zelda went from 8 million to 31 million
3D Mario went from 13 million to 27 million
Smash Bros went from 13 million to 32 million
Mario Kart went from 37 million to 57 million
Animal Crossing went from 13 million to 43 million
A bunch of the major Switch titles had massive growth over their previously best selling entries, and many of them were “more of the same” as you put it. I’m sure the pandemic helped but I think Animal Crossing was going to have a massive breakout regardless.
