Well, it's way below NSMBWii in Japan for one, with bigger drops. TOTK and Pokémon were also (so far) rather more frontloaded than previous titles.

We'll see if it can get to 10.6m by year's end like NSMBWii, that should give a better idea of how it'll sell in the long term.

Do those Japanese numbers count digital sales? NSMBWii also released in December in japan, which isn't really a fair comparison.

A couple things to note about Japan sales.

1. Wonder doesn’t include digital sales which didn’t exist for NSMB Wii. Assuming a 30-35% digital ratio than first week sales are pretty similar.

2. The bigger drops are due to the time of year. NSMB Wii weeks 2 & 3 were Dec 7-Dec 20, in the midst of the holiday shopping season. Mario Wonder weeks 2 & 3 are Oct 23-Nov 5, before the holiday shopping season kicks off.

I don't know. From the numbers Nintendo divulged, digital can't be that higher unless the ratio favors Japan way more than NSMBWii at launch.

As for the rest, we'll see. It continuously sold like 500k a week during December for the Wii with a third of the user base.

There isn't really much evidence that this will be substantially better than Odyssey in terms of lifetime sales, other than historically 2d Mario games being bigger than 3d.

Odyssey sold 2m copies in 3 days on an install-base of 7m
Wonder sold 4.3m copies in 10 days on an install-base of 131m.

Odyssey had the lifetime sales advantage of now having 6 years of legs to work it's way up to 27m. Wonder has the launch sales advantage of a much higher install base.

Shipment numbers after the holiday quarter will give a pretty good indication on what's going on with this. But without a Switch 2 re-release of some kind I don't see this title breaking the 30m mark by much if at all. Mario games are heavily reliant on legs to reach such high sales and this is a game releasing basically a year before the console it is on is replaced, sure it should be BC but it's still gonna hurt it.

This isn't a New Horizons or BOTW moment for 2d Mario platformers.

Yes digital can be quite higher and we have evidence from previous games that 30-35% of sales being digital is not uncommon. Also I’m not sure why you think the ratio favors Japan more than it did for NSMB Wii.

NSMB Wii did 10.55 million in its first quarter with 2.73 million being from Japan, that’s about 26%. Wonder sold 4.3m in its first two weeks, 26% of that is about 1.2 million. In its first two weeks Wonder sold 800k physical in Japan, adding 30-35% digital gets you to ~1.2 million. The ratio doesn’t favor Japan any more than NSMB Wii.

I’m not really sure what you’re getting at with your second point.

Pretty much nailed it wth this post. Odyssey sold 4 million in one month and wonder 4.3 million in 2 weeks but odyssey had 6 years of switch just crushing it and being the hottest console by far. It's like the wii look at the big releases like galaxy 2 and skyward at the end of it's life cycle they sure didn't have the legs of mario galaxy or twilight princess. 

I'm 85% sure you are talking to the original "CliffyRick"  :O

I’m just curious what people expected a Mario game to sell in October? Again, do some not know the history of how these games sell? It also was undoubtedly overshadowed by Spidey hype the same week, which is the definition of a huge opening frontloaded game. Even if it doesn’t hit 50, I would still bet on it being the best selling super Mario when it’s done.

In what world is Spider Man frontloaded. It's one of the leggiest games last gen. 3.3 million, over 33 million sold to this date