Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

[haxxiy]

zorg1000 said:

haxxiy said:

Well, it's way below NSMBWii in Japan for one, with bigger drops. TOTK and Pokémon were also (so far) rather more frontloaded than previous titles.

We'll see if it can get to 10.6m by year's end like NSMBWii, that should give a better idea of how it'll sell in the long term.

A couple things to note about Japan sales.

1. Wonder doesn’t include digital sales which didn’t exist for NSMB Wii. Assuming a 30-35% digital ratio than first week sales are pretty similar.

2. The bigger drops are due to the time of year. NSMB Wii weeks 2 & 3 were Dec 7-Dec 20, in the midst of the holiday shopping season. Mario Wonder weeks 2 & 3 are Oct 23-Nov 5, before the holiday shopping season kicks off.

I don't know. From the numbers Nintendo divulged, digital can't be that higher unless the ratio favors Japan way more than NSMBWii at launch.

As for the rest, we'll see. It continuously sold like 500k a week during December for the Wii with a third of the user base.