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Forums - Nintendo - Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

HyrulianScrolls said:
Slownenberg said:

Seems like they aren't going to announce launch weekend sales for Wonder.

Good. I don’t expect them to be earth shattering and I don’t want to deal with anyone saying that “proves” this won’t happen lol. Wonder will be a sales monster over the Black Friday to Xmas stretch. 

haha so sales seems to be coming up good but not incredible so you happy you can pretend like 50m is posibble hahaha. gotcha.

And yeah for sure holidays sales of the game will be huge. I still think my prediction of 30m is possible even if it seems like launch week was perhaps a bit lower than I expected. Game will probably end up right around Odyssey sales.



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Slownenberg said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

Good. I don’t expect them to be earth shattering and I don’t want to deal with anyone saying that “proves” this won’t happen lol. Wonder will be a sales monster over the Black Friday to Xmas stretch. 

haha so sales seems to be coming up good but not incredible so you happy you can pretend like 50m is posibble hahaha. gotcha.

And yeah for sure holidays sales of the game will be huge. I still think my prediction of 30m is possible even if it seems like launch week was perhaps a bit lower than I expected. Game will probably end up right around Odyssey sales.

There’s a famous Reggie gauntlet where he claimed NSMB Wii would outsell whatever that year’s COD was (when COD was arguably height of its powers) and he got tons of flack since of course Mario got crushed in terms of the opening week comparison. But NSMB Wii did indeed win LT, and that’s what 2D Mario is. It will sell huge for many months. Not to mention NSMB Wii was one of the last big Wii releases before Wii sales really nosedived, so it’s not like it had a ton of new install base after its launch either. 



HyrulianScrolls said:

I don’t think Nintendo wants Switch 2 very associated with Switch games either. They need to get a massive install base to make the jump to the next one, they’re going to want to highlight exclusives and not ports/cross gen stuff. It’s entirely different situation that PS and Xbox, and Nintendo has never played the “cross-gen” game the way the other two have anyways (the Wii U porting was a different situation unique to Switch). New system means new games when it comes to Nintendo.

Slownenberg said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

I don’t think Nintendo wants Switch 2 very associated with Switch games either. They need to get a massive install base to make the jump to the next one, they’re going to want to highlight exclusives and not ports/cross gen stuff. It’s entirely different situation that PS and Xbox, and Nintendo has never played the “cross-gen” game the way the other two have anyways (the Wii U porting was a different situation unique to Switch). New system means new games when it comes to Nintendo.

Yeah thats another great point. Focusing on bringing ports of Switch games (that you can already play on Switch 2) to Switch 2 as "new" releases does absolutely nothing to convince anyone to buy the system, and certainly not Switch owners.

Really is no reason Nintendo would do this, really don't get why people assume they will.

I think one thing you guys are overlooking is the fact that development time and costs are constantly growing. Nintendo was able to partially alleviate this by unifying their hardware/software into a single ecosystem but releasing a constant stream of new titles is still a challenge and updated ports are a great way to fill in the gaps.

The Wii U ports on Switch served two purposes, one was to make sure Wii U titles sold to their fullest potential and the second was to make sure Switch had a steady flow of first party software, especially early on.

Let’s take a look at Switch’s first two years without Wii U games.

March 2017-1,2 Switch

April 2017-nothing

May 2017-nothing

June 2017-ARMS

July  2017-Splatoon 2

August 2017-Mario+Rabbids

September 2017-nothing

October 2017-Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey

November 2017-nothing

December  2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2

January 2018-nothing

February 2018-nothing

March 16, 2018-Kirby Star Allies

April 20, 2018-Nintendo Labo Kits 1+2

May 2018-nothing

June 2018-Mario Tennis Aces

July 2018-nothing

August 2018-nothing

September 2018-Nintendo Labo Kit 3

October 2018-Super Mario Party

November 2018-Pokémon Let’s Go

December 2018-Super Smash Bros Ultimate

January 2019-nothing

February 2019-nothing

Without Wii U ports, Switch’s first two years leave quite a bit of holes in the lineup and really isn’t much better than a typical Wii U year. Solid holiday quarters but taking away Zelda & Mario Kart completely kills the launch window and 2018 becomes very Labo heavy without the steady stream of medium sized Wii U ports.

I expect the first two years of Switch 2 to have a handful of updated ports to fill in gaps.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

I don’t think Nintendo wants Switch 2 very associated with Switch games either. They need to get a massive install base to make the jump to the next one, they’re going to want to highlight exclusives and not ports/cross gen stuff. It’s entirely different situation that PS and Xbox, and Nintendo has never played the “cross-gen” game the way the other two have anyways (the Wii U porting was a different situation unique to Switch). New system means new games when it comes to Nintendo.

Slownenberg said:

Yeah thats another great point. Focusing on bringing ports of Switch games (that you can already play on Switch 2) to Switch 2 as "new" releases does absolutely nothing to convince anyone to buy the system, and certainly not Switch owners.

Really is no reason Nintendo would do this, really don't get why people assume they will.

I think one thing you guys are overlooking is the fact that development time and costs are constantly growing. Nintendo was able to partially alleviate this by unifying their hardware/software into a single ecosystem but releasing a constant stream of new titles is still a challenge and updated ports are a great way to fill in the gaps.

The Wii U ports on Switch served two purposes, one was to make sure Wii U titles sold to their fullest potential and the second was to make sure Switch had a steady flow of first party software, especially early on.

Let’s take a look at Switch’s first two years without Wii U games.

March 2017-1,2 Switch

April 2017-nothing

May 2017-nothing

June 2017-ARMS

July  2017-Splatoon 2

August 2017-Mario+Rabbids

September 2017-nothing

October 2017-Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey

November 2017-nothing

December  2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2

January 2018-nothing

February 2018-nothing

March 16, 2018-Kirby Star Allies

April 20, 2018-Nintendo Labo Kits 1+2

May 2018-nothing

June 2018-Mario Tennis Aces

July 2018-nothing

August 2018-nothing

September 2018-Nintendo Labo Kit 3

October 2018-Super Mario Party

November 2018-Pokémon Let’s Go

December 2018-Super Smash Bros Ultimate

January 2019-nothing

February 2019-nothing

Without Wii U ports, Switch’s first two years leave quite a bit of holes in the lineup and really isn’t much better than a typical Wii U year. Solid holiday quarters but taking away Zelda & Mario Kart completely kills the launch window and 2018 becomes very Labo heavy without the steady stream of medium sized Wii U ports.

I expect the first two years of Switch 2 to have a handful of updated ports to fill in gaps.

Ports of what nature, may I ask ? Cuz if the Switch 2 is to be BC with the previous system. There's no reason to think we'll a reoccurrence of them like it was for the Switch. Appart for maybe a remake or two, here and there. I think the first few years of the next system will stand more easily due to Nintendo already in the work and most probably ready to fire the big guns right out of the gate.

There will be no need to use the same strategy.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

Slownenberg said:

Yeah thats another great point. Focusing on bringing ports of Switch games (that you can already play on Switch 2) to Switch 2 as "new" releases does absolutely nothing to convince anyone to buy the system, and certainly not Switch owners.

Really is no reason Nintendo would do this, really don't get why people assume they will.

I think one thing you guys are overlooking is the fact that development time and costs are constantly growing. Nintendo was able to partially alleviate this by unifying their hardware/software into a single ecosystem but releasing a constant stream of new titles is still a challenge and updated ports are a great way to fill in the gaps.

The Wii U ports on Switch served two purposes, one was to make sure Wii U titles sold to their fullest potential and the second was to make sure Switch had a steady flow of first party software, especially early on.

Let’s take a look at Switch’s first two years without Wii U games.

March 2017-1,2 Switch

April 2017-nothing

May 2017-nothing

June 2017-ARMS

July  2017-Splatoon 2

August 2017-Mario+Rabbids

September 2017-nothing

October 2017-Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey

November 2017-nothing

December  2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2

January 2018-nothing

February 2018-nothing

March 16, 2018-Kirby Star Allies

April 20, 2018-Nintendo Labo Kits 1+2

May 2018-nothing

June 2018-Mario Tennis Aces

July 2018-nothing

August 2018-nothing

September 2018-Nintendo Labo Kit 3

October 2018-Super Mario Party

November 2018-Pokémon Let’s Go

December 2018-Super Smash Bros Ultimate

January 2019-nothing

February 2019-nothing

Without Wii U ports, Switch’s first two years leave quite a bit of holes in the lineup and really isn’t much better than a typical Wii U year. Solid holiday quarters but taking away Zelda & Mario Kart completely kills the launch window and 2018 becomes very Labo heavy without the steady stream of medium sized Wii U ports.

I expect the first two years of Switch 2 to have a handful of updated ports to fill in gaps.

Ports of what nature, may I ask ? Cuz if the Switch 2 is to be BC with the previous system. There's no reason to think we'll a reoccurrence of them like it was for the Switch. Appart for maybe a remake or two, here and there. I think the first few years of the next system will stand more easily due to Nintendo already in the work and most probably ready to fire the big guns right out of the gate.

There will be no need to use the same strategy.

I don’t think it will be to the same extent we saw on Switch but major late life games like Tears of the Kingdom & Mario Wonder getting updated ports with added content I feel is very likely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Mar1217 said:

Ports of what nature, may I ask ? Cuz if the Switch 2 is to be BC with the previous system. There's no reason to think we'll a reoccurrence of them like it was for the Switch. Appart for maybe a remake or two, here and there. I think the first few years of the next system will stand more easily due to Nintendo already in the work and most probably ready to fire the big guns right out of the gate.

There will be no need to use the same strategy.

I don’t think it will be to the same extent we saw on Switch but major late life games like Tears of the Kingdom & Mario Wonder getting updated ports with added content I feel is very likely.

Actually, I'd dig a collection release of both BOTW/TOTK with all the DLC content and 60fps "4K" update it would bring. Though I'd prefer just to have those performance upgrade be there if you already own those games on Switch.

A Mario Wonder expansion would make sense to be released all in one cart for the next gen I guess. 

But since every franchise that already released on Switch will most likely get a new game on the successor, I don't reiterating on the same games is necessary this time around. 

Anywoo, to me it'll be just another round of Xenoblade X fans to ask when they're getting a remaster/remake/sequel from Nintendo/Monolith Soft lol



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

I don’t think it will be to the same extent we saw on Switch but major late life games like Tears of the Kingdom & Mario Wonder getting updated ports with added content I feel is very likely.

Actually, I'd dig a collection release of both BOTW/TOTK with all the DLC content and 60fps "4K" update it would bring. Though I'd prefer just to have those performance upgrade be there if you already own those games on Switch.

A Mario Wonder expansion would make sense to be released all in one cart for the next gen I guess. 

But since every franchise that already released on Switch will most likely get a new game on the successor, I don't reiterating on the same games is necessary this time around. 

Anywoo, to me it'll be just another round of Xenoblade X fans to ask when they're getting a remaster/remake/sequel from Nintendo/Monolith Soft lol

Yeah I don’t see it being a Wii U situation where almost every major release got a port, the titles listed above are so big that a re-release is still a big deal that can sell multimillions.

Outside of those, maybe Princess Peach since it’s releasing so late in Switch’s life or Switch Sports with a few more sports added to it and I expect Metroid Prime 4 will be cross-gen as it’s been in development for Switch for so long.

I don’t know how likely this is but Camelot is a pretty small studio that seems like they only have the capacity to go back and forth between Mario Tennis & Mario Golf. I wonder if they would consider just releasing updated ports of the Switch versions so they can branch out and try something new, whether that’s a different Mario sports title or a new Golden Sun or something new altogether. Same thing with Next Level Games and Mario Strikers.

I guess with Mario Sports titles I don’t see the need for brand new ones, just re-release them with shinier graphics and add a few new levels, characters, etc and call it a day.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Mar1217 said:

Actually, I'd dig a collection release of both BOTW/TOTK with all the DLC content and 60fps "4K" update it would bring. Though I'd prefer just to have those performance upgrade be there if you already own those games on Switch.

A Mario Wonder expansion would make sense to be released all in one cart for the next gen I guess. 

But since every franchise that already released on Switch will most likely get a new game on the successor, I don't reiterating on the same games is necessary this time around. 

Anywoo, to me it'll be just another round of Xenoblade X fans to ask when they're getting a remaster/remake/sequel from Nintendo/Monolith Soft lol

I guess with Mario Sports titles I don’t see the need for brand new ones, just re-release them with shinier graphics and add a few new levels, characters, etc and call it a day.

Wow. That would be pretty awful. Pretty sure nobody just wants Nintendo to re-release the same games each gen with shinier graphics. Perfect way to kill off Nintendo's business.

Also Nintendo's sports games on Switch were pretty lackluster efforts so that'd be even worse for that particular group of games. Strikers, Switch Sports, Golf, Aces were all pretty much low-content low-effort affairs that had to get a bunch of stuff added post-release and still were disappointing. Their sports games this gen were the one area where they clearly put in much less effort than normal. Last thing Nintendo needs next gen is to be like hey consumers remember when we gave you these low-effort games last gen, well this gen we won't even bother with that we're just gonna throw out these same games at you and call it a day. lol.

As always, Nintendo makes new games each gen. People need to stop getting confused by the fact that Nintendo resurrected WiiU's dead titles from the dead-on-arrival system for a second chance at life on the Switch. That was a unique scenario. One that is very very different than the Switch-to-Switch2 situation.

No reason to expect Switch games to get re-released next gen, especially if backwards compatible people will already be able to play these games on next gen system.

Like, there might be A game, or two, that gets a re-release. Possible they do something with the Zeldas just considering we aren't gonna be getting another 3D Zelda until end of next gen, though just making WW and TP available and doing a new 2D Zelda I think would be good enough since both open world Zeldas will be playable through bc.

I could see Nintendo maybe re-marketing Switch games, like putting them out as "Classic Switch" games or something to re-market them next gen, but Nintendo just rehashing original Switch games next gen instead of making new ones or so they can delay making new ones as everyone seems to think will happen is just not a thing.



Slownenberg said:
zorg1000 said:

I guess with Mario Sports titles I don’t see the need for brand new ones, just re-release them with shinier graphics and add a few new levels, characters, etc and call it a day.

Wow. That would be pretty awful. Pretty sure nobody just wants Nintendo to re-release the same games each gen with shinier graphics. Perfect way to kill off Nintendo's business.

Also Nintendo's sports games on Switch were pretty lackluster efforts so that'd be even worse for that particular group of games. Strikers, Switch Sports, Golf, Aces were all pretty much low-content low-effort affairs that had to get a bunch of stuff added post-release and still were disappointing. Their sports games this gen were the one area where they clearly put in much less effort than normal. Last thing Nintendo needs next gen is to be like hey consumers remember when we gave you these low-effort games last gen, well this gen we won't even bother with that we're just gonna throw out these same games at you and call it a day. lol.

As always, Nintendo makes new games each gen. People need to stop getting confused by the fact that Nintendo resurrected WiiU's dead titles from the dead-on-arrival system for a second chance at life on the Switch. That was a unique scenario. One that is very very different than the Switch-to-Switch2 situation.

No reason to expect Switch games to get re-released next gen, especially if backwards compatible people will already be able to play these games on next gen system.

Like, there might be A game, or two, that gets a re-release. Possible they do something with the Zeldas just considering we aren't gonna be getting another 3D Zelda until end of next gen, though just making WW and TP available and doing a new 2D Zelda I think would be good enough since both open world Zeldas will be playable through bc.

I could see Nintendo maybe re-marketing Switch games, like putting them out as "Classic Switch" games or something to re-market them next gen, but Nintendo just rehashing original Switch games next gen instead of making new ones or so they can delay making new ones as everyone seems to think will happen is just not a thing.

I’m not saying just do a straight up port but to have improvements and add things, similar to the difference between MK8 & MK8 Deluxe. It included all the previous updates/DLC and added battle modes, new characters, new karts, new items, dual items, smart steering, auto accelerate, super drift, along with improved performance/visuals.

Just look at a company like Camelot who makes the Mario Tennis & Golf games, you are already saying that their Switch entries were low-content/low-effort despite having longer development times than previous entries.

Looking at their release history, you can see that their output has gradually decreased each generation, from 2 games per year then 1 game per year then 1 game every 2 years and now 1 game every 3 years. Is it going to become 1 game every 4 years next generation and people still complain that they lack content?

I say release updated ports with more content similar to MK8D, that allows them to get games out quicker without having to worry about lack of content and gives them a chance to work on something other than just Mario Tennis/Golf, whether that’s a return to Golden Sun (dormant since 2010) or a different Mario sport like baseball (dormant since 2008) or make something completely new.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Slownenberg said:
zorg1000 said:

I guess with Mario Sports titles I don’t see the need for brand new ones, just re-release them with shinier graphics and add a few new levels, characters, etc and call it a day.

Wow. That would be pretty awful. Pretty sure nobody just wants Nintendo to re-release the same games each gen with shinier graphics. Perfect way to kill off Nintendo's business.

Also Nintendo's sports games on Switch were pretty lackluster efforts so that'd be even worse for that particular group of games. Strikers, Switch Sports, Golf, Aces were all pretty much low-content low-effort affairs that had to get a bunch of stuff added post-release and still were disappointing. Their sports games this gen were the one area where they clearly put in much less effort than normal. Last thing Nintendo needs next gen is to be like hey consumers remember when we gave you these low-effort games last gen, well this gen we won't even bother with that we're just gonna throw out these same games at you and call it a day. lol.

As always, Nintendo makes new games each gen. People need to stop getting confused by the fact that Nintendo resurrected WiiU's dead titles from the dead-on-arrival system for a second chance at life on the Switch. That was a unique scenario. One that is very very different than the Switch-to-Switch2 situation.

No reason to expect Switch games to get re-released next gen, especially if backwards compatible people will already be able to play these games on next gen system.

Like, there might be A game, or two, that gets a re-release. Possible they do something with the Zeldas just considering we aren't gonna be getting another 3D Zelda until end of next gen, though just making WW and TP available and doing a new 2D Zelda I think would be good enough since both open world Zeldas will be playable through bc.

I could see Nintendo maybe re-marketing Switch games, like putting them out as "Classic Switch" games or something to re-market them next gen, but Nintendo just rehashing original Switch games next gen instead of making new ones or so they can delay making new ones as everyone seems to think will happen is just not a thing.

Development cycles are getting longer. They will need to re-release Switch games to avoid having a barren catalog of games in their first 2~3 years. This doesn't mean they will not have new games, buy their software output will be smaller next gen. Maybe third parties can help filling their shop with ports of PS4 games.