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Forums - Sales Discussion - August Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

Poor month for PS5 bearing in mind the temporary $50 pricedrop and supply vs a year ago. The extremely weak "true exclusive" lineup and the relatively still high pricepoint are starting to hurt PS5's sales performance, and I don't think Spider-Man 2 will be enough to help Sony reach their lofty goal for the fiscal year. $50 permanent pricecut for both models will be needed in addition to some aggressive holiday deals, and even then I'd bet against it in light of the seeming 1st party drought after SM2.

Not surprised by Switch and Xbox's double digit decline, didn't think Switch would place last but it's still doing great for such an old platform. I expect PC to slowly eat into Playstation and especially Xbox's userbase. As the fat cats at Sony increase PS+ prices by over 30%, they're just making PC look more and more appealing.



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Geralt99 said:
CosmicSex said:

PlayStation 5 continued to lead the 2023 hardware market across both units and dollars. Year-to-date hardware spending was 13% higher when compared to the same period in 2022, at $3.2 billion.

PlayStation 5 was the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during August 2023, with Xbox Series ranking 2nd across both measures.

Video game hardware spending fell 13% when compared to a year ago, to $328 million. PlayStation 5 dollar sales fell by a single-digit percentage in the month when compared to a year ago, while both Switch and Xbox Series declined by a double-digit percentage.

PS5 dollar sales were down by a single digit percentage in august compared to a year ago, But its unit sales were up

Where as xbox and Switch are down in both dollar and unit sales compared to a year ago.

Confirmed by Mat piscatella on twitter. 

This is correct.  This is due to the $50 sales that was in effect for part of the month of August.  



Kyuu said:

Poor month for PS5 bearing in mind the temporary $50 pricedrop and supply vs a year ago. The extremely weak "true exclusive" lineup and the relatively still high pricepoint are starting to hurt PS5's sales performance, and I don't think Spider-Man 2 will be enough to help Sony reach their lofty goal for the fiscal year. $50 permanent pricecut for both models will be needed in addition to some aggressive holiday deals, and even then I'd bet against it in light of the seeming 1st party drought after SM2.

Not surprised by Switch and Xbox's double digit decline, didn't think Switch would place last but it's still doing great for such an old platform. I expect PC to slowly eat into Playstation and especially Xbox's userbase. As the fat cats at Sony increase PS+ prices by over 30%, they're just making PC look more and more appealing.

This comment doesn't make sense.  The PS5 sales were up... By how much isn't stated but we know its by double digits.  Revenue would be down 20% with the sale if all else was equal and the sale was all month (which it wasn't).   But Revenue was down only 1% which mean that the sales needed to make that up are up by at least 20%.  Growth is almost exactly representative of the price cut. 



CosmicSex said:
Kyuu said:

Poor month for PS5 bearing in mind the temporary $50 pricedrop and supply vs a year ago. The extremely weak "true exclusive" lineup and the relatively still high pricepoint are starting to hurt PS5's sales performance, and I don't think Spider-Man 2 will be enough to help Sony reach their lofty goal for the fiscal year. $50 permanent pricecut for both models will be needed in addition to some aggressive holiday deals, and even then I'd bet against it in light of the seeming 1st party drought after SM2.

Not surprised by Switch and Xbox's double digit decline, didn't think Switch would place last but it's still doing great for such an old platform. I expect PC to slowly eat into Playstation and especially Xbox's userbase. As the fat cats at Sony increase PS+ prices by over 30%, they're just making PC look more and more appealing.

This comment doesn't make sense.  The PS5 sales were up... By how much isn't stated but we know its by double digits.  Revenue would be down 20% with the sale if all else was equal and the sale was all month (which it wasn't).   But Revenue was down only 1% which mean that the sales needed to make that up are up by at least 20%.  Growth is almost exactly representative of the price cut. 

It clearly sold less than 400k (or at best just over that), you predicted 550k so you should be disappointed.

I don't know where you got the 1% revenue decrease or double-digit unit increase from, but it's safe to say 400k was the roof.

Pricecut being temporary should have led to higher demand. And it being applied only to the standard version means the revenue cut per unit sold was less than 10% (and only for the period of the deal). PS5 signifnicantly underperformed compared to what we both expected.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 15 September 2023

Kyuu said:
CosmicSex said:

This comment doesn't make sense.  The PS5 sales were up... By how much isn't stated but we know its by double digits.  Revenue would be down 20% with the sale if all else was equal and the sale was all month (which it wasn't).   But Revenue was down only 1% which mean that the sales needed to make that up are up by at least 20%.  Growth is almost exactly representative of the price cut. 

It clearly sold less than 400k (or at best just over that), you predicted 550k so you should be disappointed.

I don't know where you got the 1% revenue decrease or double-digit unit increase from, but it's safe to say 400k was the roof.

Pricecut being temporary should have led to higher demand. And it being applied only to the standard version means the revenue cut per unit sold was less than 10% (and only for the period of the deal). PS5 signifnicantly underperformed compared to what we both expected.

Free money from the government is over and these console sales are gonna go back to the old days were they need to be heavily  discounted to sell. next year is gonna rough.



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AC6 still below Elden Ring for the YTD sales. Despite being 2nd for the month, it is clear it didn't come to close to Madden.

Also MLB has impressive sales. On par, by the big games.



PS5 sales are doing good, but the fact it sold only a little more than August from last year despite the $50 sale should show Sony is not hitting that 25 million shipped for the fiscal year, and their Q1 shipments were already lower than what everyone expected.



Sogreblute said:

PS5 sales are doing good, but the fact it sold only a little more than August from last year despite the $50 sale should show Sony is not hitting that 25 million shipped for the fiscal year, and their Q1 shipments were already lower than what everyone expected.

That they are not going to come close to that target is evident.Even with 8 million sales in Q3 , they aren't going to get there. To get 25 million sales, you pretty much need to sell 1.5 million units per month outside of the holidays.

Which Sony only succeeded in during the first 3 months of the year. But those don't count for this fiscal year.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

If the PS5 Slim is really dropping soon, I can see it happening that Sony can reach their own forecast.

In my estimation, the PS5 Slim should range between 379, maybe even 349 and 419 in price to still hit their forecast. Spiderman 2 + Black Friday season could be a huge accelerator.

But time is slowly speaking against everything I just assumed. We are almost in October.

But the fiscal year is until 31th Match 2024, so there are still 6 months left.

Which leads me to the final assumption that the PS5 Slim in 2023 rumours are indeed true. But Sony eventually postponed the launch of PS5 Slim last minute and still figures out when to release it.

In my estimation in February at the latest.