Daaaang Zelda 18.51 million! Incredible. Next quarter Switch will presumably get two new 20 million sellers to hit nine total! Crazy. Switch's top 10 is a thing of legend. By end of this fiscal year, with Mario Wonder, all 10 should be over 20m, with 7 over 25m, and presumably with another half year or so before successor comes out. And with presumably backwards compatibility next gen (because it'd be completely insane not to) some of these games will keep selling a bit for years as new gamers come of age and want to try out the best of the Switch.

Switch had a great quarter for hardware, but we all knew that was coming with the extended Zelda boost. Looking very good for hitting that 15m figure this fiscal year, especially with a new 2D Mario this Fall. Normal trajectory probably would've put HW sales at just under 3m for the quarter, instead it did a million extra!

Anyone wanna do quarterly sales for those top 10 - how much each sold during the quarter?

We've gone and adjusted the Switch down as the gap between shipped and sold was too small. The gap is now at 1.83 million. The gap did shrink in the latest quarter, but that can be attributed to Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and the Mario movie shifting more consoles than Nintendo was expecting. 

Yep, certainly very optimistic. However...here's my reasoning. Based on the first week of July, it seems the Switch is on track for maybe 900k to 1.1mil for the month (assuming the Oceanic/Other numbers aren't coming in?? Sorry, not too familiar with how those work). With an empty month of August and September, however, there will certainly be a dramatic slow down: with that, I change my Q2 estimate to maybe around 2.5mil.

Come Q3: we have Super Mario Wonder. This game will likely give Nintendo a pretty dramatic boost for the holiday season: this was the year of the Mario Movie after all, so there will certainly be lots of children asking for/parents picking up a Switch (and being reminded to do so by Mario Wonder) for Christmas and such. That being said, the holiday will worst case scenario be on-par with 2022. However, I can certainly see 10mil being broken again. Following a strong holiday...Switch will certainly be on its deathbed. Everybody will be holding off for the Switch successor and likely there won't be anything bring ppl to Switch prior to the successor: that being said, I estimate 1-2mil for Q4.

All-in-all, still hitting 140mil at worst. Being a bit more optimistic, I think 143mil is certainly within reason.

I was so off with some of my final pre-launch predictions for Tears of the Kingdom. I was expecting 18-22 million lifetime, not over 18.5 million in under two months.

@trunkswd 

Should be noted that despite Switch Hardware Sell-In declining in a few regions, Switch Hardware Sell-Through was up in all markets.  Straight from Nintendo's Slides from today, the quote:

• On a region-by-region basis, sell-in declined in Europe and the Americas
compared to the same period last fiscal year, but sell-through increased for all
regions, including Europe and the Americas.

If we pixel count the graph on the left, sales for Apr-Jun are up 25% YoY and 2nd highest ever after Apr-Jun 2020 which was 23% higher.

So looks like they overshipped a bit last year, at least compared to this year. 

Software Top 10

Total sales followed by sales added to the total in Q1

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 55.46m + 1.67m
Animal Crossing NH: 42.79m + 580k
Smash Bros Ultimate: 31.77m + 680k
Zelda BOTW: 30.65m + 840k
Super Mario Odyssey: 26.44m + 680k
Pokémon Sword/Shield: 25.92m + 100k
Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 22.66m + 560k
Super Mario Party: 19.39m + 250k
Zelda TOTK: 18.51m NEW
New Super Mario Bros. U: 16.17m + 760k

So another 30m to go

Thanks!

Ahh I guess SMP will take until end of the year to hit 20m. Makes sense I was getting confused between that one and the newer one in terms of what its quarterly sales would be around. Dang Mario Odyssey outselling Pokemon S/V in the quarter is crazy, and Odyssey equaling quarterly sales for Smash! I guess the Mario movie boosted Odyssey sales. I would love to see Odyssey end up hitting 30m, it'll be close.

I assume BotW got a nice boost from the TotK release.

NSMBUD selling three quarter of a million in the quarter...wow. I mean I'm sure it's higher thanks to the Mario movie but still that's impressive. Ya gotta think Mario Wonder is gonna be HUGE given how well a fairly mediocre last gen port that launched with little fanfare has done and is still doing after several years! I wonder if Mario Wonder will hit 20m during the holidays. One would think it should pass NSMBUD in sales by a WIDE margin lifetime.

Indeed, the shipments that weren't in line with sell-through before needed a correction this quarter, so year over year comparisons for shipments don't quite work in such a situation.

3.91m is a great start for this fiscal year, because the forecast is 15m. Fiscal Q2 will be smaller, but that has always been factored in. What Switch needs to accomplish per quarter this fiscal year:

3.91m in Q1
~2.6m in Q2
~6.5m in Q3
~2.0m in Q4

This isn't an uphill battle. These are actually such comfortable numbers that Nintendo will probably be content to have yet another year with a $299 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundle for Black Friday.

Software is also doing great. Best fiscal Q1 ever for Switch, thanks to the release of Tears of the Kingdom.

I don't get why people are rather pessimistic about their outlook after these results. Maybe they still have last fiscal year in their heads when Nintendo didn't meet all of their own expectations. But this year is going to be different, plus we still have a SMB game coming.

Yeah Rol this year definitely looks like they'll hit their expectation. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they do over 16m. By the start of next fiscal year though, with TotK and Mario Wonder well in the rearview mirror, and with people at that point expecting an announcement coming soon on a new system, and with presumably no huge (10+ million) selling games left in the pipeline for Switch after Wonder, I expect sales will really start slowing down as they had looked to have already started  doing before Mario Movie and especially TotK picked everything up this Spring.

I'd expect sales next winter to slow down and to continue slowing down after that. I do think they should do at least one major price cut unless they plan on basically completely cutting off Switch production when the successor launches, and that could spur on a final good year next year if they do it early in the year. Price cut would give them a final decent half year before next gen, and allow Switch to still sell after next gen comes out.

This year is should be real solid though yeah.