Yeah Rol this year definitely looks like they'll hit their expectation. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they do over 16m. By the start of next fiscal year though, with TotK and Mario Wonder well in the rearview mirror, and with people at that point expecting an announcement coming soon on a new system, and with presumably no huge (10+ million) selling games left in the pipeline for Switch after Wonder, I expect sales will really start slowing down as they had looked to have already started doing before Mario Movie and especially TotK picked everything up this Spring.
I'd expect sales next winter to slow down and to continue slowing down after that. I do think they should do at least one major price cut unless they plan on basically completely cutting off Switch production when the successor launches, and that could spur on a final good year next year if they do it early in the year. Price cut would give them a final decent half year before next gen, and allow Switch to still sell after next gen comes out.
This year is should be real solid though yeah.
