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firebush03 on 03 August 2023
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NintendoPie said:
firebush03 said:

hmm...seeing this chart leads me to predict Switch sales figures to sit comfortably around 145mil by the end of fiscal 2023. No doubt Zelda and Pikmin will allow for a Q2 of around 3.25-3.5mil. Super Mario Wonder will easily skyrocket sales figures to 10mil for Q3. Switch successor announcement in Q4 will knock sales likely to 2mil. Incredible numbers for year seven if this is the case! In this situation, Switch will likely sit right around the DS lifetime. PS2 would be a stretch...though not impossible, especially depending on if Nintendo markets the successor as a direct sequel to the Switch (at which point, the original Switch retains cultural relevancy, allowing for sales to ride along the coattails of Switch 2).

i think you’re a bit too optimistic here. sales are declining in the Americas and Europe too much for Japan to pick up the declines going into the next few quarters.

it’s definitely possible for nintendo to beat their 15m forecast but i doubt it’ll be by more than 500k to 1m units at best.

Yep, certainly very optimistic. However...here's my reasoning. Based on the first week of July, it seems the Switch is on track for maybe 900k to 1.1mil for the month (assuming the Oceanic/Other numbers aren't coming in?? Sorry, not too familiar with how those work). With an empty month of August and September, however, there will certainly be a dramatic slow down: with that, I change my Q2 estimate to maybe around 2.5mil.

Come Q3: we have Super Mario Wonder. This game will likely give Nintendo a pretty dramatic boost for the holiday season: this was the year of the Mario Movie after all, so there will certainly be lots of children asking for/parents picking up a Switch (and being reminded to do so by Mario Wonder) for Christmas and such. That being said, the holiday will worst case scenario be on-par with 2022. However, I can certainly see 10mil being broken again. Following a strong holiday...Switch will certainly be on its deathbed. Everybody will be holding off for the Switch successor and likely there won't be anything bring ppl to Switch prior to the successor: that being said, I estimate 1-2mil for Q4.

All-in-all, still hitting 140mil at worst. Being a bit more optimistic, I think 143mil is certainly within reason.