Where have you gotten the idea that Microsoft has considered "exiting" the console market with "every generation". - From an unverified, unreliable source? Or from Microsoft themselves?

Where is your factual evidence that backs up this claim?

Before Steam came along, PC was relying on physical distribution. - That was Steams competition before alternatives to Steam arrived.

Valve needs competition, Epic is providing pressure to reduce the revenue split.

Sega made a series of poor choices which resulted in their unfortunate demise.

First poor choice was with the Sega Saturn... The Dual-processor approach made the console difficult to build games for, which drove up costs and development time... Which meant financially it wasn't enough to bolster Sega's financial position... This is in stark contrast to the PS1 which was very easy and cheap to make games for. - Or the Nintendo 64 which was technically superior.

Then you had the Dreamcast, which despite being a successful launch and being the first 6th gen console also made a series of mistakes.
Screwing over 3dfx which *was* the leader in 3D graphics put them at a disadvantage.. They could have had better graphics than the PS2 if they leveraged a 3DFX Voodoo chipset.

They also dumped millions and millions into various games to try and make a must-have title... Case in point, Shenmue, this eroded Sega's financial position that could have supported the Dreamcast for many more years.

However the Dreamcast was displaced by the Playstation 2 very quickly... Before the other 6th gen consoles released. Aka. Gamecube and Xbox. - So it was only competing against the PS2, it was a 2 horse race at the time of their downfall.

Blaming the downfall of Sega on there being multiple competitors is disingenuous and you have NOT paid enough attention to history, only what you want to believe.

PC has always had competition. Always. Facts are facts buddy.

You can't get subs if you don't have hardware to sell those subscriptions to.

Will Sony allow gamepass on it's consoles? Unlikely.

Sony doesn't have to do squat. It's their platform, they dictate the terms of what is allowed and not allowed on their platform, regardless of what you dream might happen.

It's a "Series" of consoles. I can assure you, there will be more consoles coming.

And you are entirely correct (For once). - Microsoft does know more than everyone in this thread on what their future plans are... And that includes YOU.

You are NOT the exception to this rule.

There will come a point where the number of monthly Gamepass subscribers will flat line.
Has it already started to slow in momentum yet?

Porting is still required if the hardware on the server side is different.

Sony and Nintendo will only make money off Gamepass if they allow it.

Thus far, that hasn't eventuated... So your hypothetical scenarios are without basis in reality.

Steamdeck isn't selling Switch levels of units.

As a PC player, if this ends up being some kind of Sega Dreamcast situation, which I don't think it will, I wouldn't mind personally, so long as Microsoft keeps making games and they release on Steam.

1) Plenty of articles hinting it. I didn't have to look far for it.

Microsoft President Questions Whether Gaming Consoles Will Still Be Around In 10 Years | Pure Xbox

Microsoft's Xbox Plans to End the Console Wars With Sony (businessinsider.com)

2) Sega couldnt compete, they were the 3rd wheel and all 3rd wheels in this industry fall off or die. Thats a historical fact.

3) PC never needed Competition of the likes of another Steam. Its only hurt PC gamers when more try to enter. That has been obvious by many. 

4) Sony doesn't have to accept GP, however they have been accepting Xbox owned games which will more than satisfy MS. Increasing their 1st party game sales. But as you mentioned before, Sony can take a cut of GP profits which i am sure they will gladly accept.

5) Ill be here when MS stop making Xbox consoles, they might hint of a hybrid system next gen however they are going to leave only in a matter of time. It isnt needed and many will gladly see them leave. No idea why Xbox fans defend this so hard.

6) Porting isnt an issue. They literally made almost all 360 games work BC on X1 consoles. 

7) What does Steamdeck sales have to do with GP being officially green lit for it?

Xbox hardware needs to go, it's not doing anyone any favors hanging around. The Console market isn't big enough for 3 platforms. Thats the reality Xbox fans need to understand and accept. No matter how good the hardware is. Give Sony and Nintendo the keys and let them drive the hardware front, its only a matter of time before the hardware market isn't necessary either.

(7) Official Complete History of PlayStation [HD] #history #ps1 #xbox #ps4 #pc #nintendo #documentary - YouTube

@13.00

Ok so you made a leap of faith between signing support with 250 devs to making exclusivity deal with 250 devs? Got it.

About Xbox not doing anyone favor by hanging around I think at least 15M people disagree with you. Because since all xbox games can be played on PC if they decided to buy the console is because they prefer this solution for any number of reasons they may have.

Where exactly are you getting this data that MS has wanted to exit the hardware business.  Where are you getting this data that they even want to exist the hardware business now.  You keep making this claim but there is no data I found MS making or even suggesting such a claim.  

The 2 articles you listed actually do not support your opinion if unless you just take them totally out of context.

There is a lot of Ifs in your post which is basically just gambling.  Why would MS need to gamble when they are already making the money now.  IF GP is marketed right.  If GP gets to 100 million subs, If GP can be put on Sony and Nintendo Platform, IF MS can sell their software more than double the biggest publisher does.  If XCloud is viable, If people are willing to transition to Xbox games in the cloud over fix hardware.  If MS will not lose GP subs instead of expand it.  Think about it, how many people will want to keep their GP sub if its neutered on competition consoles.  I mean every point you make is based on a lot of Ifs to happen.  What your opinion does not provide is any concrete data to support it.  There is no data that shows GP will grow if MS exit the hardware market.  There is no data that MS software will sell better on Sony platform then it does on their own platform.  There is no data that suggest Sony or Nintendo will allow GP on their platform.  There is no data that shows GP suddenly jumping to enough subs that it can replace the revenue MS makes on hardware.

If you are truly looking at this from a business perspective what metric will MS have to hit first in order to make all your ifs happen.  Do MS wait until they get to a certain subscription size.  Do MS wait until they have a deal in place with Sony and Nintendo.  Do MS wait until they can port their games over to the competition platforms.  Do MS wait until the net infrastructure can handle them going full XCloud for delivery of their games.  Or do you believe MS can just bam!!, We are dropping hardware and going full GP and hope as hell things just magically work out.  There is a lot of ifs that seem to really need to happen for even a consideration on such an exit plan.

Without the hardware 90% of their subs will vanish over night, so for now they need it. Xbox Live can only thrive on dedicated hardware, Gamepass meanwhile can be hardware agnostic but isn't big enough yet for them to rely on.

For me the most indication I can take from those intereviews is on as you said speculation that perhaps in a near/mid future consoles itself will stop existing and MS is position itself for it, not an indication of they leaving the market but of the market being to small to matter.

Yep, from what I see most of the subs of GP are currently from people that have a Xbox, a small number on PC only and negligible numbers for smartphone/tv only.

Sure at some point Xbox subs may be irrelevant, but will take quite some time.

Leap of faith what? 

Console hardware isn't necessary anymore. Sony and Nintendo will continue to hang around because they sell enough to justify. Xbox hardware is selling really well but its not justifiable for a mega corporation that makes $40billion a QTR. Its what i call "A unnecessary need"

You have to lose to gain. GP is a threat because MS still have dedicated hardware that their competition has to compete with. Take the competition out and it's all money and gains for Nintendo, Sony and Xbox. What they lose they gain back with more numbers.

Your entire response answers your own questions. These "What Ifs" are extremely possible. 

You ask what metric does MS need to do first? Like in every business, you slowly fade out the un-necessaires and push the narrative harder and harder, year on year increasing its traction.

You guys are not seeing it and it's really odd. They don't have to lose current customers/subs. Xbox will most likely follow the Stadia route moving forward, if you own a Series Console cool, however you can just stream your games on devices moving forward. You can still keep your old hardware but moving forward, like all console systems, they become obsolete and pointless in years to come. 

Its nothing about dropping hardware instantly and forcing people straight away. It's called "phasing out" Exactly how digital media took off. It only was pushed and pushed and pushed until it became the standard across everything. The way the future is looking, Xbox will eventually seize hardware manufacturing and just focus on multiplats/Services. They have the infrastructure advantage, something Sony and Nintendo don't have, and MS know this.

Man I can’t believe this thread is still going. You’re making all kinds of assumptions about subs and numbers, none of it makes any sense. Here’s what MS loses by going third party:

Millions of XBLG subs
Millions of GamePass subs
Licensing fees off of millions and millions of physical games sold
Full share minus retailer cut of millions of physical first party sales
Digital shares off of millions and millions of digital games sold
Digital shares off of millions and millions of digital micro transactions/DLC

Here is what they gain:

They can offer a stripped down, more expensive version of GamePass to Sony and Nintendo and make less money off of it, because Sony and Nintendo now get a cut of everything.

They can sell physical games on these platforms but they have to give retailers and share and now pay licensing fees to Sony/Nintendo.

They can sell digital games on these platforms but they have to give platform holders a 30% cut of all transactions.

You assume they’ll see a large growth in GamePass subs, but there’s no basis for that assumption. I sign up for GamePass because of day one first party games and cool third party titles I’d otherwise typically not try or sometimes not even notice. All of that is gone in this new GamePass on competing consoles. They lose subs.

They might sell more physical games since they have two more platforms to sell to. But they make a lot less on each sale. They make 30% less on each digital sale.

The kryptonite to your argument are digital services and transactions. You’ll need to sell an absolute gargantuan number of games to make up the revenue you lose from gold and GamePass and digital transactions. Just saying “well you get a lot more subs!” doesn’t cut it.

There’s a reason Xbox is consistently in third place and yet MS still sticks around and makes profit and invests billions in the product.

Millions of Subs will dominate the profit boards than everything you just mentioned. 100m Subs is $1billion a month. 200m is $2billion a month. They arent hitting those sub numbers hanging onto console hardware. The reason they need to dump the hardware is to lessen the competition with Sony, so Sony will agree to a GP model on PS which Sony will also benefit from profiting. 

Example: 1st Party Xbox GamePass on rival systems means plenty of Nintendo and Sony customers can possibly sign up. Sure they lose the 3rd party games but that model can still exist on PCs etc.

This also means Xbox can release all their games digital as stand alone games on both Nintendo and PS increasing digital sales by a fair margin. Imagine games like Halo Infinite, Gears 5 and Horizon 5 on Switch and PS4.

Yes i am assuming they will sell better, but do you and others really disagree with that assumption?