BotW2 started out as a DLC pack.  They already had the engine, the main map, etc.  The movies we saw for that well could have been what was intended for the DLC the entire time. And look, that game isn't even releasing until this year. I'm not going to say you're crazy, but this example isn't a good one.  Metroid Prime 4 literally had to start from scratch.  In 2019 all Retro had shown Nintendo was a prototype.  

First will be the ports of MK8 and Tears of the Kingdom along with launching with a new Mario game 2d or 3d. Launch window will have a new ip of some sort. Pokemon will come after 1 year during the holiday season.

Mario kart 9 and a new 3d mario seem the most likely. Aside from that its hard to know, it's all dependent on when the next console releases.

I feel like I'm used to this sort of thing.

Resident Evil 2 Remake was announced in 2015.
No info or images until three years later, when they showed a trailer, which looked very representaive of, if not identical to, how the full game would look 7 months later when it released.
So they could have given us updates earlier. They just chose not to.

And I think there was a lot of radio silence around Bayonetta 3 for years as well, even though they seemingly could have shared updates with us sooner than they did.

We should see a 3D Mario open world game at launch, just like BOTW changed the formula for Zelda games. A new Mario Kart should be released during the launch window, because Mario Kart 8 will be 10 years old in 2024 and the DLC tracks for Mario Kart 8 just look like a compromise.

We also should see definitive editions of Metroid Prime 4 and Zelda Tears of the Kingdom (incl. DLC) within the first 12 months of the new console.

The new console should also have a new gimmick, and Miyamoto will offer us a new IP at launch which demonstrates it. ^^

We are gaming in the era of re-releases and remakes.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mario Kart 8 remastered as a launch title with cross-play with the vanilla game.

Both the super successful switch and Wii had a new main Zelda game as a launch title. The OK performing Snes and N64 had a main-line Mario game.
The lesser performing Gamecube had a Mario spin off.
The under performing WiiU also had a Mario game at launch, but that game looked and played pretty much identical to the previous 2D Mario title.

Without the release of Tears of the kingdom this spring my bet had gone to having a new Zelda as the game to use. But I think there is way to short of development time for that, if not handled by another team.

I do not think that a port is enough to get people to invest in a new system. They can work as a way to sweeten the deal. But when the game is already on a system with massive sales I don't think it is enough to warrant spending big bucks on a new system to play the game again. I think there have to be something new attract both new and returning players.

If the game is going to be a cross platform release, I think the most likely pick would be Metroid Prime 4. A game already announced for switch. That with a new Mario game in the "release window" is my bet at what is going to happen. And of course something that demos the new systems uniqueness if it is more than a switch with more power.

I honestly prefer if Metroid Prime 4 releases on Switch 2 because I want it to be ambitious. Although I always enjoyed the Metroid Prime series greatly, they are a bit dated at this point where something like Bungie’s Halo 2 or Halo 3 is not dated at all to me. We got that nice cutscene with Samus speaking Chozo in Dread, but I think Metroid could really use full fledged cutscenes like a Final Fantasy game. Gameplay wise I also want a decent framerate and exploration in the world maximized to a better degree than past Prime games. I believe putting the game on the original switch might not make for the best product, but I know this could make many disappointed if its a switch 2 exclusive. I’m a bit nervous for the game especially with how Metroid doesn’t sell that well compared to other mainline Nintendo franchises.

I think first 6 months we'll see Skyrim, GTA V, Witcher 3, Cyberpunk 2077, and COD

Not sure about exact launch day titles. I have a feeling Metroid Prime 4 will be a launch cross Gen like Zelda was.

I wanna say Mario Kart 9 but that might steal the thunder a bit so they might hold off on that for a month or so after launch. Honestly I’m not sure about anything else