Simple:  How many units do you think GoW Ragnarok will sell in its first week?
My guess is 5mil minimum, but I’m gonna go bold with 5.7mil. That being said, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if sales exceeded 6.5mil.

Some first week sales reference points:

GoW 2018:  3.1mil

Spider-Man:  3.3mil

TLoUp2:  “>4mil”

UPDATE:

GoWR sold 5.1mil in its first week, becoming the best launch week for a PS exclusive ever. 5-5.49mil was the most common prediction range, so well done, people. Particular praise goes to BraLoD, who predicted the exact sales number of 5.1mil. He is a god amongst men. Pun intended.

Source:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/455540/god-of-war-ragnarok-sales-top-51-million-units-in-1st-week-sets-1st-party-playstation-record/

Feel free to continue predictions for GoWR:  Lifetime sales, sales by the end of 2022/2023/etc., time it will take to hit 10mil and 20mil, etc. 

I think GoWR will hit 10mil by the end of 2022. I’m not sure how strong word of mouth has been, as I’m avoiding almost all conversation about GoWR until I beat it, but if word of mouth is very strong, I think it can hit 20mil by end of 2023/early 2024. Sales by end of 2026:  28-30mil (hopefully even more).

How much did Ghost of tsushima sell on its first week again? I thought it was the fastest selling first party title from playstation.

Anyway my guess would be somewhere around 3.8m to 4.2m which is pretty big.

I’m quite certain it was announced as holding the record for the best launch week for a NEW IP. Sold 2.4mil in its first 3d. This compared to Horizon ZD selling 2.6mil in its first 2wk. 

Ah make sense, I thought Ghost of tsushima beat all the opening week for other playstation titles for some reason when I read the announcement way back.

2-3 million. The active Playstation playerbase is declining due to PS5 shortages and PS4's age. Would have been an easy 4 million+ on a larger PS5 install base.

2.4 million is my guess

4,7m
The ps5 userbase (>20m) is starved for something to justify their purchase. This high caliber title is exactly what people have been waiting for. And yes, ps4 active users might be in decline, but a game like that is a must play sequel. And 23m got the 2018 game. So I expect high numbers for the first week. Plus, honestly, long legs too. Might become an evergreen with ps5 ramping up production and its new availability paired with the release of Ragnarok might be a good combo for people choosing their first ps5 game.

People are underestimating
-The attach rate GOWR is going to have
-The amount of PS5s about to be sold next week
-The amount of positive word of mouth in the air right now
-The amount of PS4s about to come out of retirement
-The lack of competition this half of the year.

I think 4.5m is the minimum

It is a holiday title so I will say 100k over Spiderman, 3.4m.

PS5 or no... this is a cross-gen game. This means it would be remiss to only look at the install base of either platform.

Between the PS5/PS4 there is an accumulated base of over 140M. Regardless of overlap, or sales favoring one platform over the other... there is really no reason this game shouldn't or cant sell at least 5M in its first week. And over 10M by January 2023.