Have you not been paying attention to Playstation's financial reports? Software sales have been on a continuous and steep decline for a while (even when compared to pre-pandemic numbers) despite the increase in combined install base. Subscriptions and MAU are declining as well.

Yes, it's starting to look like Ragnarok may break Sony's record, but that would just mean it's over-performing relative to the other big 1st party games this generation. I think Sony's AAA fanbase is particularly sensitive to critical reception. Bundles and PS5 production significantly improving are the two bigger factors. I know a brand new GoW is bigger than GT/Horizon/Spider-Man stand alone expansion of sorts, but it shouldn't be bigger to the point of nearly outselling two of them in a week or two.

PS4 is a dying console and will become irrelevant soon enough. I expect Spider-Man 2 (PS5) to outsell Ragnarok (PS4+PS5) within two years.

To your first point,I would say that during every trans generational phase, there is always that decline as the focus shifts to the newer platform. You literally have people holding off on certain purchases (not all of them) because they intend on playing that game on the new platform. That prior is longer in this generation than it has ever been. And while there s a dropoff in subs,you also have to consider the fact that there is also a recorded increase in spending from those that are still there. Coupled with the fact that this is just following the start f the new PS+ service, we can say that drop-off isn't actually a drop-off but more of a focusing of their base.

As to the second, we are in agreement. I expect SM2 to sell better too. And even in less tie than you have given. SM is the kinda game parents can actually buy for their kids. Can't say the same about GOW. Games like the former tend to always sell better.

Definitely more than 2 copies.
5.1m is my guess, smashing Sony's past records.

Over 5mil. The massive increase that it has from God of War 2018 in the UK obviously isn't fully representative of the worldwide market but I expect it to still have a big increase globally.

^ this.

So far, we've heard its done very well in the UK and across Europe.
Breaking previous sales records, of the franchise.

Its also had a very positive effect on sales of PS5's (bundles).

You agree then that the current active playerbase is lower (I agree with your reasons) and therefore they should negatively affect short term software sales. So Ragnarok opening with 3.5 million+ is overperforming with that in mind. The majority of PS4 users who are interested will prefer to wait and get the game on PS5. This is how it's been going with every Sony crossgen game.

5 mi

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/455472/god-of-war-ragnarok-uk-launch-sales-bigger-than-modern-warfare-ii-elden-ring-and-pokemon/

Hmm, this is super impressive if they’re comparing GoWR to the PlayStation-only sales of MW2 and Elden Ring, but the way they word it makes it sound like it’s comparing it to the COMBINED sales of those games on all systems. If that’s the case, this would be so insane it’d be hard to believe.

Anyone have any insight as to which it is?

It's the total physical sales on all platforms.

Above 5m.

The insanely good possitive reception of this game and its predecessor are gona give it a massive boost.

Also count all the ps5's sony stocked for the hollidays and the released of this game. I would not be suprised they intend to have a 1m ps5 week for this game alone.