I think there's a chance of MK8 Wii U & Switch outselling Wii Sports, but it would be by the slimmest of margins.

~51 or 52 million by the end of this year

~60 million by the end of 2023

~65 or 66 million by the end of 2024

Would still need about 8 or 9 million through the remainder of its life.

Switch will be at least at 20 in the end.

Never understood this.

If I was a customer who wanted to play Wii games and DS games, I would've bought both. But I only have to buy 1 Switch to do the same.

Thus the real comparison would be the DS numbers, while the Wii's numbers are "absorbed" in the DS.

Not really because when Nintendo had two platforms you could very well be into one platform and not the other as home gaming and portable gaming are parallel markets with different experiences, while the would be some overlap it wouldn't be 100% or as large as people think because a large amount of portable players would be non Nintendo home platform owners and have a PC, PS or Xbox instead.

Essentially Nintendo's two platforms weren't one userbase across two platforms they were two userbases with some overlap.

The overlap wouldn't be 100% indeed, but not 0% as many suggest.

At the end, what really counts more is the software sales

Looking at all those 2D Mario games selling so well it's baffling Nintendo hasn't release an original 2D Mario for Switch.

Yeah, Tears of the Kingdom, 3D World + Bowser's Fury, Switch Sports, Splatoon 3, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet, and Mario Party Superstars will bring it to 20, plus Minecraft and Monster Hunter Rise makes 22, though the last two will likely never be officially confirmed even if they'll almost certainly get there if they're not already.

So not just #1, but more than the next two combined.

And that's before we account for potential additions not announced yet.

0%

MK8D could maybe hit 60m. That leaves the pair still about 15m shy of Wii Sports.

Totally. But it'll only be truly crazy if they don't actually make a 2D Mario for Switch. I'm full on assuming we'll get one for the holidays next year. Of course it won't be able to have the legs they normally have since it'd be coming out very possibly within 12 months of Switch getting replaced, but then again it'll also be launching on a ~135m hardware base. Definite possibility it could sell 15m in a holiday season and go past 20m the following year.

Super Mario Bros. 3 released near the end of the NES' lifecycle (a year and a half before the SNES in NA) and went on to sell 17.28m, becoming the biggest selling non-bundled game on the console.  If Nintendo were to launch a new 2D Mario next April alongside the movie, that would be about a year and a half before holiday of 2024.  Hmm...