I believe that 2023 is going to be another big year for software and the last big year for big 1st party releases; my hopes are BOTW2, DK, Pikmin 4 and 3D Mario 2 along with Prime 4 and any other collaboration rumors we've heard about (Star Fox, F-Zero, Kid Icarus, etc).

I'd say 17m-18m if there is no hardware revision, with Switch at ~140m sold by the end of 2023.

I went with 18M. I see them doing a hardware revision alongside BOTW 2, so that should keep the decline to a decent amount. If there is a hardware revision, I don't see a price cut happening next year. I could see them doing a price cut in 2024 and then a successor in 2025 though.

From a business sense, with so many unknown variables in regards to price/cost pressures... Governments the world over looking at ways to increase wages to match inflation, it just wouldn't make sense to do price cuts unless they were temporary, targeted and/or promotional, just because costs can increase.

Here for instance we initiated a bunch of wage increases in order for wages to start growing.. And that is likely just the start.
That will impact margins for any manufacturing, logistics and retail.

I voted 18 million

I expect this year will probably be like 21 million. Next year if Nintendo is aggressive I think they can definitely do 18 million. If they are less aggressive though it might be 16 or 17 million.

By aggressive I mean:
Next year they've got BotW2, presumably Advance Wars will finally come out, and presumably most of the other games we want/expect on Switch: MP4, old MP remakes/remasters, DK, Mario 2D, WW/TP pack, and more, their N64 library will be filling out and hopefully they'll add GB/GBA to the expansion pack service, presumably a price cut on all models, drop a bunch of older first party games to $30 with the Nintendo Selects branding. If they do all this I could see 18 million, and then in 2024 they could coast on third party releases and the final few first party games for the system, probably one more Pokemon game, and set themselves up for a big Switch 2 launch holiday 2024.

I don't think we'll see any more hardware models, but if they do release a "pro" model next year then obviously sales could be higher.

I'm expecting a next gen switch which will slow down the sales of the original. Zelda will be a dual launch plus a price cut will keep it going. I would say 11 or less if this happens but if there is a more powerful revision then I expect the numbers to be around 20m

I'm predicting 16M which is a modest & realistic drop from the 21M I'm expecting for 2022.

18 million.

18 million

To the people expecting a hardware revision, what kind of revision are you expecting? We've had Switch Lite and Switch OLED officially, on top of the unmarketed version that came before them with the improved battery life.

Are you expecting a Switch Pro/New Switch?

I voted 16 million. I think if they announce a Switch Pro it could definitely be higher, like 18-19 million, but if they announce a new console it could be 15 million.

Sorry, when I said "New Switch", I was thinking of a revision/mid-gen upgrade akin to the New 3DS. Not a full-on successor.