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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 110M, PS5 Tops 21M - Global Hardware July 3-9

A usual summer week for our triplet of consoles, still I guess it's fair to assume with the ongoing results for the Switch ATM, I'm confident enough we won't be seeing the next hardware generation before the end of 2024 at least, prolly more likely for 2025 even.



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March 2024 is the earliest I see a Switch successor to release. I would say March 2025 or Holiday 2025 is more likely. But you never know with Nintendo. They are more focused on profits over selling as many Switch units as possible.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

March 2024 is the earliest I see a Switch successor to release. I would say March 2025 or Holiday 2025 is more likely. But you never know with Nintendo. They are more focused on profits over selling as many Switch units as possible.

They do make a good profit out of the Switch however, so I do think they intend to continue to sell as many as possible. 



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Mar1217 said:
trunkswd said:

March 2024 is the earliest I see a Switch successor to release. I would say March 2025 or Holiday 2025 is more likely. But you never know with Nintendo. They are more focused on profits over selling as many Switch units as possible.

They do make a good profit out of the Switch however, so I do think they intend to continue to sell as many as possible. 

Yeah, considering how old the technology is in the Switch and the fact it has yet to see a price cut, they must be making a decent amount on each one sold. Though, will they be willing to keep sales up by dropping its price and by how much if so? $170 for Lite? $250 for standard Switch? $300 for OLED?



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

As cool as it would be, I can't see Nintendo holding off on a Switch successor long enough for it to pass PS2 and DS.
The Switch could easily hold out til 2024 given its momentum, but it would be 7 years old by March that year, and Nintendo pretty much never lets their systems go that long before replacing them.

I still expect a successor before the end of 2023. They'd be smarter to wait in my opinion, but Nintendo very often don't do the smartest thing.

Still, third of all time is a hell of an achievement nonetheless.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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curl-6 said:

As cool as it would be, I can't see Nintendo holding off on a Switch successor long enough for it to pass PS2 and DS.
The Switch could easily hold out til 2024 given its momentum, but it would be 7 years old by March that year, and Nintendo pretty much never lets their systems go that long before replacing them.

I still expect a successor before the end of 2023. They'd be smarter to wait in my opinion, but Nintendo very often don't do the smartest thing.

Still, third of all time is a hell of an achievement nonetheless.

My thoughts  exactly. 



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trunkswd said:

March 2024 is the earliest I see a Switch successor to release. I would say March 2025 or Holiday 2025 is more likely. But you never know with Nintendo. They are more focused on profits over selling as many Switch units as possible.

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.



RolStoppable said:
Chrkeller said:

I stand by my previous assessment. Switch is third all time. I do not see it catching the DS and ps2.

This assumes that Nintendo won't allow Switch to run the natural course of a console life and instead kills it prematurely.

The sales trajectory of Switch doesn't necessitate a successor before or during the fiscal year that ends March 2025, so the most logical timing would be a holiday launch in 2025. That's enough time to reach and surpass 160m in lifetime sales.

If Nintendo decides to do a mid-gen upgrade of the hardware, then 160m will be a piece of cake because the launch date of a successor will be pushed back further.

Of the above three options, the middle one is the most probable one. Nintendo is wary of the inevitable transition period between Switch and its successor, so it would be preposterous if they didn't allow Switch and its successor to run side by side for a while akin the 3DS to Switch transition. Likewise, a successful transition necessitates high profile first party software during year 1 of the successor and given what Switch is still getting right now, a 2024 launch of a successor would most likely feel rushed. A 2023 launch would be insane anyway.

Time will tell.  You might be right, you might be wrong.  It will be interesting to see what Nintendo does.

Personally I would be very surprised if a Switch 2 doesn't happen in 2023/2024.  



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.

No that is not true. Wii/DS best year profited 550 billion yen and that's about the same currently. Even without inflation calculated, the past two fiscal year are not twice of what the Wii/DS era was.



Shatts said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.

No that is not true. Wii/DS best year profited 550 billion yen and that's about the same currently. Even without inflation calculated, the past two fiscal year are not twice of what the Wii/DS era was.

Nintendo during the Wii/DS best year was JPY 550  

The second is JPY 487.22

Nintendo's past two fiscal years: JPY 640 and 592. Without inflation it´s superior.  And the two are twice than Nintendo DS/Wii's best year ( more than twice)