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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 110M, PS5 Tops 21M - Global Hardware July 3-9

Shatts said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.

No that is not true. Wii/DS best year profited 550 billion yen and that's about the same currently. Even without inflation calculated, the past two fiscal year are not twice of what the Wii/DS era was.

Nintendo during the Wii/DS best year was JPY 550  

The second is JPY 487.22

Nintendo's past two fiscal years: JPY 640 and 592. Without inflation it´s superior.  And the two are twice than Nintendo DS/Wii's best year ( more than twice)



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It's true that most Nintendo systems don't last more than 7 years, but it's also worth pointing out that most Nintendo systems haven't enjoyed the success Switch has achieved. Additionally, this is their only system as opposed to have 2 at a time for the past almost 4 decades.

8-8.5 years is still possible for the Switch. (I could see the pandemic being a reason for the successor releasing in 2025 as opposed to 2024.)



Agente42 said:
Shatts said:

No that is not true. Wii/DS best year profited 550 billion yen and that's about the same currently. Even without inflation calculated, the past two fiscal year are not twice of what the Wii/DS era was.

Nintendo during the Wii/DS best year was JPY 550  

The second is JPY 487.22

Nintendo's past two fiscal years: JPY 640 and 592. Without inflation it´s superior.  And the two are twice than Nintendo DS/Wii's best year ( more than twice)

? I'm so confused how is it twice, heck more than twice? Isn't twice equivalent to double? If my eyes aren't pulling tricks on me, it's not even close to double the profit. Even comparing the lowest to the highest, it's 487 to 640. Twice of 487 is 974 not 640.



Torpoleon said:

It's true that most Nintendo systems don't last more than 7 years, but it's also worth pointing out that most Nintendo systems haven't enjoyed the success Switch has achieved. Additionally, this is their only system as opposed to have 2 at a time for the past almost 4 decades.

8-8.5 years is still possible for the Switch. (I could see the pandemic being a reason for the successor releasing in 2025 as opposed to 2024.)

I'm pretty sure the NES is famous for lasting more than 20 years. GameBoy lasted fairly long as well like 10+. Now that I think about it, Nintendo has consistently created an upgrade of the old system as their next-gen. 

NES -> SNES
GameBoy -> GameBoy Advance
DS -> 3DS
Wii -> Wii U
Switch -> Switch 2???

P.S. The successor has all sold less than it's predecessor. Maybe they should stop doing that or sell them as upgrades, but at the same time N64 & Gamecube wasn't really amazing in terms of sales either. I'm assuming they would stop this trend from happening and create a complete new hardware with new concept for their next-gen console. They will still make a successor for the Switch but will be treated as an upgrade like the "New 3ds" than a next-gen console.



I suspect that Nintendo has pushed the original target release date of a Switch successor.

1. Switch chips are easily and cheaply obtained. Any successor that uses modern chips would make the current chip supply chain issues even worse.
2. Profit margins. Switch profit margins are vastly higher than any successor would be (at least initially).
3. Market and content support. Switch has gained the trust of the consumer market and the external content development market. A successor would be an uncertainty in both during uncertain economic times.
4. Demand. Very stable high demand. And even if that demand wanes a bit, price cuts, value bundles, feature updates and (see below) option 5.
5. A Pro model type upgrade would likely be more feasible (economically, supply chain and content) in the near future than a full successor.

When Nintendo said Switch was at the mid point of its life last November, I don't think they were kidding. A 2025 successor is not outside the realm of plausibility.



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Shatts said:
Agente42 said:

Nintendo during the Wii/DS best year was JPY 550  

The second is JPY 487.22

Nintendo's past two fiscal years: JPY 640 and 592. Without inflation it´s superior.  And the two are twice than Nintendo DS/Wii's best year ( more than twice)

? I'm so confused how is it twice, heck more than twice? Isn't twice equivalent to double? If my eyes aren't pulling tricks on me, it's not even close to double the profit. Even comparing the lowest to the highest, it's 487 to 640. Twice of 487 is 974 not 640.

It's not double, but it's way way higher than the Wii/DS peak year.



Shatts said:
Agente42 said:

Nintendo during the Wii/DS best year was JPY 550  

The second is JPY 487.22

Nintendo's past two fiscal years: JPY 640 and 592. Without inflation it´s superior.  And the two are twice than Nintendo DS/Wii's best year ( more than twice)

? I'm so confused how is it twice, heck more than twice? Isn't twice equivalent to double? If my eyes aren't pulling tricks on me, it's not even close to double the profit. Even comparing the lowest to the highest, it's 487 to 640. Twice of 487 is 974 not 640.

The two, sum the two. It´s 2021/3 + 2022/3 >  2x JPY 550. And this operation income, net income the difference is bigger. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 20 July 2022

Kakadu18 said:
Shatts said:

? I'm so confused how is it twice, heck more than twice? Isn't twice equivalent to double? If my eyes aren't pulling tricks on me, it's not even close to double the profit. Even comparing the lowest to the highest, it's 487 to 640. Twice of 487 is 974 not 640.

It's not double, but it's way way higher than the Wii/DS peak year.

Yes, but that's net income/profit not operating income. Since we're talking about the effect of game systems, we should be checking operating profit. 



Shatts said:
Kakadu18 said:

It's not double, but it's way way higher than the Wii/DS peak year.

Yes, but that's net income/profit not operating income. Since we're talking about the effect of game systems, we should be checking operating profit. 

You just assumed this.

Last edited by Agente42 - on 20 July 2022

Agente42 said:
Shatts said:

Yes, but that's net income/profit not operating income. Since we're talking about the effect of game systems, we should be checking operating profit. 

You just assumed this.

Yes, but read through this thread. We are talking about the timing for the next-gen Nintendo console. 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.

Liquid Laser was talking about the most profitable system. It's bizarre that we don't assume we are talking about operating profit. Net profit has more to do than gaming, such as investment, debt, expenses, taxes, etc. For example, Nintendo could be investing something in the peak of Wii/DS era and earned positive cash flow recently. There could have been major outside negative cash flow in the Wii/DS era and such. Does that make sense? 


You were also talking about operating profit in the first place. The explanation for the "twice" doesn't even make sense either so you could have just apologized for your mistake or at least put up an excuse. At least Liguid_Laser could make the claim that he was looking at net profit. Btw u can't bcuz u were clearly talking about operating profit. 

Last edited by Shatts - on 20 July 2022