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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Sales Comparison Charts February 2022 Discussion Thread

Alex_The_Hedgehog on 12 March 2022

I expect Xbox Series to outsell Xbox One by a respectable margin. But I'm not sure when it will happen, since shortages could impact the sales for some time.



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aTokenYeti on 12 March 2022
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I expect Xbox Series to outsell Xbox One by a respectable margin. But I'm not sure when it will happen, since shortages could impact the sales for some time.

If they were to continue to average between 9 million and 11 million consoles per year then they would pass the Xbox One year 5ish. 

Xbox currently accounts for about 42% of 9th gen market share. If that ratio with PlayStation holds over the course of the generation, and we have another generation of roughly 170 million PlayStations and Xboxes combined, then Xbox would be on track to sell about 71 million consoles. That would be a highly respectable gain over Xbox One. 

Anyway, here are some life time sales estimates based on market share assuming 170 million PlayStations and Xboxes sold: 

15%: 25.5 million (about where the original Xbox ended)

30%: 51 million (this is about where Xbox One is) 

35%: 59.5 million 

40%: 68 million 

45%: 76.5 million 

50%: 85 million (roughly where the Xbox 360 landed) 



curl-6 on 13 March 2022

Nice to see Xbox Series continue to lead its predecessor in spite of shortages.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 13 March 2022

Norion on 14 March 2022
aTokenYeti said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I expect Xbox Series to outsell Xbox One by a respectable margin. But I'm not sure when it will happen, since shortages could impact the sales for some time.

If they were to continue to average between 9 million and 11 million consoles per year then they would pass the Xbox One year 5ish. 

Xbox currently accounts for about 42% of 9th gen market share. If that ratio with PlayStation holds over the course of the generation, and we have another generation of roughly 170 million PlayStations and Xboxes combined, then Xbox would be on track to sell about 71 million consoles. That would be a highly respectable gain over Xbox One. 

Anyway, here are some life time sales estimates based on market share assuming 170 million PlayStations and Xboxes sold: 

15%: 25.5 million (about where the original Xbox ended)

30%: 51 million (this is about where Xbox One is) 

35%: 59.5 million 

40%: 68 million 

45%: 76.5 million 

50%: 85 million (roughly where the Xbox 360 landed) 

A few months ago I got a bit of pushback for suggesting just the possibility of a 100m/70m split and now that possibility is already looking more likely than it did then. The real test will be when there is ample stock though.



curl-6 on 17 March 2022

Switch bordering on 20 million ahead of PS4 at this point, insane performance considering the PS4 was a racecar in its own right.

Imagine telling someone in 2016 that the "NX" would sell like this.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 March 2022

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curl-6 on 20 March 2022
CGI-Quality said:
curl-6 said:

Switch bordering on 20 million ahead of PS4 at this point, insane performance considering the PS4 was a racecar in its own right.

Imagine telling someone in 2016 that the "NX" would sell like this.

I would have believed them if I knew that it was also a handheld. A home console on its own? Nope. Outside of the Wii, Nintendo's home consoles just didn't pull those kinds of numbers. So yeah, I would have been a skeptic. But, even Nintendo knew this and that is one of the biggest reasons the Switch exists.

Even after seeing the form factor I admit I sure as hell never thought it had a real shot at outselling PS4 back when it was first unveiled, and as I recall the vast majority of folks thought the same. The general opinion back then seemed to be that it was too expensive for a handheld, too weak for a console, and would suffer the same persistent lack of games that dogged the Wii U.

Heck, when Nintendo announced in 2017 they were aiming for 100 million plus sales, most folks scoffed and said they were crazy.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 20 March 2022

curl-6 on 20 March 2022
CGI-Quality said:
curl-6 said:

Even after seeing the form factor I admit I sure as hell never thought it had a real shot at outselling PS4 back when it was first unveiled, and as I recall the vast majority of folks thought the same. The general opinion back then seemed to be that it was too expensive for a handheld, too weak for a console, and would suffer the same persistent lack of games that dogged the Wii U.

Heck, when Nintendo announced in 2017 they were aiming for 100 million plus sales, most folks scoffed and said they were crazy.

A lot of that is also down to a real underestimation of Nintendo. And it will continue, because lowballing almost seems fun for naysayers!

To me, the greatest thing to happen next to a hugely successful PS4 was a hugely successful Nintendo! Think about the Switch's successor — it should be a massive success!

True, and we were also just coming off several years of the Wii U selling extremely poorly and even 3DS underperforming, which coloured people's perceptions including mine.



curl-6 on 27 March 2022
trunkswd said:

Share the article here.

PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360 Sales Comparison - February 2022

This monthly series compares the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One with the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

The 100th month for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One is February 2022, while for the Xbox 360 it is February 2014 and for the PlayStation 3 it is February 2015. This does mean the holiday periods for all four consoles are lined up.

Gap change in latest month: 340,755 - PS3 & X360

Gap change over last 12 months: 6,270,459 - PS3 & X360

Total Lead: 265,295 - PS3 & X360

Total Combined PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 Sales: 167,454,097

Total Combined PlayStation 4 and Xbox One Sales: 167,188,802

In February 2022, the gap grew in favor of the combined sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 when compared to the aligned launch of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in the last month by 340,755 units. In the last 12 months, the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 have caught up by 6.37 million units.

The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One after 99 months in the lead have now fallen behind the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are behind by 265,295 units.

The PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in their first 100 months sold a combined 167.45 million units, while the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 167.19 million units.

The PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 sold a combined 173.22 million units lifetime. The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are currently 6.03 million units away from surpassing the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. With the Xbox One discontinued and PlayStation 4 sales having fallen off there is no chance for them to retake the lead.

The better systems finally catch up and take their rightful lead, at last. 

Remarkably consistent combined base though.



curl-6 on 31 March 2022

The difference in trajectory for 3DS vs Switch is very telling, especially when for years "Switch will sell on par with 3DS" was a popular opinion.
Even in its stronghold of Japan, 3DS has flattened out while the Switch just keeps on climbing up and up.



DaAndy on 01 April 2022
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

The difference in trajectory for 3DS vs Switch is very telling, especially when for years "Switch will sell on par with 3DS" was a popular opinion.
Even in its stronghold of Japan, 3DS has flattened out while the Switch just keeps on climbing up and up.

Think I should do a Switch vs DS in Japan comparison? 

Yes, please. :)

And also Switch -vs- 3DS + WiiU if your time allows it (i have absolutely no idea how time-consuming one chart is), even if this one also is kind of over roughly by end of 2022.