It's not worth worrying about Imo, there is next to zero chance that Russia uses nukes, we're talking nukes here, they'd be shunned by almost the entire world, I strongly doubt normal trade relations would return after Russia has just nuked a country and it would cause multiple countries to trip over themselves trying to get into NATO, it won't just be Finland and Sweden joining NATO anymore but anyone who has even a slight fear of Russia.
Where would Russia even nuke as well? They can't nuke Kyiv, it's far too close to Belarus, Russia would essentially be nuking them too when they get a massive dose of radiation flowing over into their country, I don't think even Lukashenko is that stupid to continue to be a Russian ally after Russia just dosed them with radiation and his citizens would be up in arms as they were recently when they tried to overthrow him.
They nuke Lviv and the radiation spreads into Poland, that could very easily be seen as an attack on NATO and then all bets are off, I don't know if NATO would respond with nukes but there is zero chance they just sit around and do nothing in response, it's all but an attack on NATO, Poland would flip their shit as would other countries nearby, at minimum I would imagine America and allies would bomb the shit out of Russian military infrastructure.
They nuke South Ukraine/Eastern Ukraine they're nuking their own troops...Imagine "hey we nuked tens of thousands of our own troops, including the our breakaway allies in Donbas but at least Ukraine is destroyed!"...I also wouldn't be so sure that Ukraine would surrender after a nuke...Why would they? Russia is already bombing the shit out of their cities and trying to turn each one to rubble and tying to genocide the Ukraine ethnic population.
I think it's far more likely the war would get even more brutal, Ukraine is already bombing Belgorod military targets, a Russian city, they have the capability to strike Russia back and if Russia used a nuke on Ukraine, I think Ukraine's strikes on Russian soil would quickly become more brutal, especially when their troops have already reached the Russian border.
Using a nuke on a country which literally borders you is insanity, it'd turn them into a permanent enemy, not that I don't think that hasn't already happened but payback is a lot easier when the country is right next door, you'd create an enemy next door which quite literally wants nothing more than to see your entire country dead and that's a very dangerous thing, not to mention, the nuclear radiation would hit Russia too.
It's also worth mentioning everything that Ukraine produces for the world, Ukraine in 2020 was the 5th largest exporter of wheat in the world and their biggest buyers were countries like Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, etc. Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of corn as of 2020 and their largest buyers was China and that's just the food exports.
Ukraine produces 18% of the world’s sunflower seed, safflower or cottonseed oil exports; 13% of corn production; 12% of global barley exports; and 8% of wheat and meslin and their biggest buyer is China. Russia just saying fuck it and nuking Ukraine would have devastating effects on the global food market and turn countries which sat on the fence with Russia into hating Russia.
This is key for why China would care, I've no doubt China knew about Russia's plans but also likely believed it would be over in a matter of days, now China is stuck and so sits on the fence but I don't think China wants Ukraine to be totally destroyed just as much as Europe doesn't, but for selfish reasons, economic ones, they need Ukraine's exports.
Also China actually has a pact with Ukraine to come to their defence if Ukraine is ever attacked by nuclear weapons (Under New Scrutiny: China’s Nuclear Pledge to Ukraine - WSJ) so there's that too, whether China sticks to their word or not is another matter, if they don't, they show to the world and their allies that their words and agreements mean jack shit and hurt their international standing.
So saying all of that, I think the chances of Russia using nukes are next to zero.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2022