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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Personally I would love a HD remaster of ExciteTrucks and ExciteBots bundled together, as well as a remaster of Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance/Radiance Dawn, as they were some of my favorite Wii games from Nintendo

You shut your mouth!!! Don't you go giving me false hope XD!!! 

JK, Excitebots is, without a doubt, one of the best racing games to ever be released, and so few people played it, even though who did was transformed by the experience and the people around it. I know players from my original community (back in 2010!) who still play it online (over privately built servers) to this very day! I would freaking DIE of happiness if it happened!



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Shtinamin_ said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Just want to add that a SMART holiday title for Nintendo would be Tomodachi. It was a top 10 title for the 3DS and the series hasn't gotten an entry yet on the Switch. This isn't a prediction though. They may have just given the middle finger to the whole series even though it was fairly successful.

Nintendo still has cards to play for holiday titles if they want to.

I agree Nintendo has a LOT of cards to play.

Here are some cards that I has seen not played yet.

  • Tomodachi
  • Nintendogs
  • DK
  • Mario & Luigi (even though AlphaDream is dead)
  • Kid Icarus (it had a 3DS release meaning they still care about it)
  • Rhythm Heaven (a personal want)
  • Some remake of a popular game?

This is a personal theory, related to Pokémon (duh look at my profile pic lol), TPC released to the world access to use for free the music from Pokémon Ruby, Sapphire, FireRed and Leaf Green on Pokémon Day Feb 27. This access is VPN locked to Japan & Asia, but there are Official TPC Youtube video of the music library. When BDSP released, the TPC released Diamond and Pearl music on Youtube, and put that music onto the Sound Library, and Youtube.
My theory is that this year they will release all of the Gen 3 games either as part of NSO GBA (I doubt, but would make sense), or as physical releases. This will be part of the last solo holiday hurrah for the Switch.

(This theory could be a flop given that TPC released Pokémon Red/Blue/Green and select Pokémon Scarlet and Violet music on the Sound Library last year, along with Youtube, and we didnt have a release of Red Blue or Green).

Gotta to also mention Star Fox



CourageTCD said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I agree Nintendo has a LOT of cards to play.

Here are some cards that I has seen not played yet.

  • Tomodachi
  • Nintendogs
  • DK
  • Mario & Luigi (even though AlphaDream is dead)
  • Kid Icarus (it had a 3DS release meaning they still care about it)
  • Rhythm Heaven (a personal want)
  • Some remake of a popular game?

This is a personal theory, related to Pokémon (duh look at my profile pic lol), TPC released to the world access to use for free the music from Pokémon Ruby, Sapphire, FireRed and Leaf Green on Pokémon Day Feb 27. This access is VPN locked to Japan & Asia, but there are Official TPC Youtube video of the music library. When BDSP released, the TPC released Diamond and Pearl music on Youtube, and put that music onto the Sound Library, and Youtube.
My theory is that this year they will release all of the Gen 3 games either as part of NSO GBA (I doubt, but would make sense), or as physical releases. This will be part of the last solo holiday hurrah for the Switch.

(This theory could be a flop given that TPC released Pokémon Red/Blue/Green and select Pokémon Scarlet and Violet music on the Sound Library last year, along with Youtube, and we didnt have a release of Red Blue or Green).

Gotta to also mention Star Fox

I did forget about Star Fox. Maybe we can get Star Fox 3.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

I am surprised to not see any new replies here, considering that today something noteworthy happened: Paper Mario releases on May 23rd, Luigi's Mansion 2 on June 27th.

This has major implications for the Switch lineup this year (and beyond), because it means there's no shortage of first party Switch games in development. If anyone had assumed that the rumored pushed back Switch successor launch will leave this holiday quarter empty, it's now clear that such an assumption was wrong. Because if Nintendo had only few Switch games planned for 2024, they would have spaced them out instead of setting release dates for the first half of the year for both of the remaining known 2024 games.

It is now increasingly more likely that the upcoming transition phase will resemble something akin to the transition from the 3DS to Switch, so a prolonged tail for Switch hardware sales instead of the other main scenario of Nintendo dropping support quickly which quite a lot of people have been expecting.

If the rumors are true and the Switch successor doesn't launch before March 2025, then we can expect an LTD figure of minimum 152m for Switch by the time its successor launches. Another 8m from there aren't a stretch with low tier Nintendo releases throughout 2025 (plus the already confirmed Pokémon Legends game) and any one of the options of a price cut, a hardware revision or new value-added bundles.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Isn’t it just as likely that the lack of Switch games later in the year could actually mean Switch 2 is arriving this holiday? Not saying that’s true, but them packing all these games into the first half of the year certainly open up that early Fall/Holiday for some launch titles for a new device.



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super_etecoon said:

Isn’t it just as likely that the lack of Switch games later in the year could actually mean Switch 2 is arriving this holiday? Not saying that’s true, but them packing all these games into the first half of the year certainly open up that early Fall/Holiday for some launch titles for a new device.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder wasn't announced until June last year, so I'd wait until Nintendo's usual showcase in June before saying there are no Switch games for this Holiday.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

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Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

RolStoppable said:

I am surprised to not see any new replies here, considering that today something noteworthy happened: Paper Mario releases on May 23rd, Luigi's Mansion 2 on June 27th.

This has major implications for the Switch lineup this year (and beyond), because it means there's no shortage of first party Switch games in development. If anyone had assumed that the rumored pushed back Switch successor launch will leave this holiday quarter empty, it's now clear that such an assumption was wrong. Because if Nintendo had only few Switch games planned for 2024, they would have spaced them out instead of setting release dates for the first half of the year for both of the remaining known 2024 games.

It is now increasingly more likely that the upcoming transition phase will resemble something akin to the transition from the 3DS to Switch, so a prolonged tail for Switch hardware sales instead of the other main scenario of Nintendo dropping support quickly which quite a lot of people have been expecting.

If the rumors are true and the Switch successor doesn't launch before March 2025, then we can expect an LTD figure of minimum 152m for Switch by the time its successor launches. Another 8m from there aren't a stretch with low tier Nintendo releases throughout 2025 (plus the already confirmed Pokémon Legends game) and any one of the options of a price cut, a hardware revision or new value-added bundles.

I had the exact same thought, everything known comes in first half of 2024, so definitely, something must come out for holidays (and for summer/autumn). I guess another Mario Party game could come out in summer/autumn but what the big holidays title will be becomes more and more interesting. Is it really Donkey Kong? I always suspected that but now I give it more credit. Metroid Prime 4? Hmmm, I think they really have to show its beauty on Switch 2, for current Switch it will either come out at the same time or later but certainly not before the Switch 2 version. But Metroid Prime 2 and 3 Remaster will definitely come and I guess at least Prime 2 will come out this year. Another 2024 candidate would be Xenoblade Chronicles X Remaster (maybe in December). A new Fire Emblem is also possible or generally 2nd party stuff (i.e. Nintendo IP's made by 3rd parties or Nintendo acts as publisher). Someone can dream about F-Zero, Wave Race or Earthbound... .



super_etecoon said:

Isn’t it just as likely that the lack of Switch games later in the year could actually mean Switch 2 is arriving this holiday? Not saying that’s true, but them packing all these games into the first half of the year certainly open up that early Fall/Holiday for some launch titles for a new device.

Switch 2's launch date doesn't change anything about this specific point. Whether it would launch in late 2024 or early 2025, Nintendo wouldn't go several months without a Switch game when they have the option to launch Paper Mario in June and Luigi's Mansion 2 in August to bridge a gap until October/November, because neither game had an announced release date before today.

No or hardly any officially announced games for the latter half of the year has been pretty normal in recent years. There's bound to be a Direct within the next three months to shed light on Nintendo's planned schedule. This strategy has proven efficient in maximizing sales of individual games, because the lead-up to release is much shorter and interest doesn't vane in smaller titles.

You aren't the first guy to think of a successor's launch due to lack of announced games. We've had to go through this every year since 2021.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Dixie Kong new game for September or holiday title !



Not to sound mean, but.... how can anyone honestly believe Switch 2 was even a possibility this year??? Look at Nintendo and everyone one of their directs. They have only announced games releasing in a 3-6 monthish window for the most part. Sometimes I think people on this board allow personal desires to cloud their logic judgment.



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