The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

I am surprised to not see any new replies here, considering that today something noteworthy happened: Paper Mario releases on May 23rd, Luigi's Mansion 2 on June 27th.

This has major implications for the Switch lineup this year (and beyond), because it means there's no shortage of first party Switch games in development. If anyone had assumed that the rumored pushed back Switch successor launch will leave this holiday quarter empty, it's now clear that such an assumption was wrong. Because if Nintendo had only few Switch games planned for 2024, they would have spaced them out instead of setting release dates for the first half of the year for both of the remaining known 2024 games.

It is now increasingly more likely that the upcoming transition phase will resemble something akin to the transition from the 3DS to Switch, so a prolonged tail for Switch hardware sales instead of the other main scenario of Nintendo dropping support quickly which quite a lot of people have been expecting.

If the rumors are true and the Switch successor doesn't launch before March 2025, then we can expect an LTD figure of minimum 152m for Switch by the time its successor launches. Another 8m from there aren't a stretch with low tier Nintendo releases throughout 2025 (plus the already confirmed Pokémon Legends game) and any one of the options of a price cut, a hardware revision or new value-added bundles.