Then why did you reply to it? Yeah, I accidentally used your username, but you're pretty reasonable and knew who I meant.

To answer your question, I don't think any of those IPs really move the needle that gets Switches off of shelves. They'd sell to the existing fanbase. Rhythm Heaven is forever niche. A brand new DK is a maybe, but that screams "Switch 2 launch window" to me. I don't think the Switch Sports and Nintendog crowd is coming back in force anymore; they have smartphones now.

The only thing I can think of at the moment that might capture some buzz and set the gaming world on fire would be the return of F-Zero, either a brand new one or F-Zero GX ReFalconed. It's always been a niche IP itself, but the first game in two decades of a beloved franchise wouldn't go unnoticed and I can see it getting some lapsed fans to get a console to play it, especially now that online matchmaking and ranking is a thing.

The only thing that has become clear is that you need others to speak on your behalf so you can plagiarize their work, otherwise you can't stick with one coherent thought. I do find that confusing.

I agree that most IP's would be selling to just an existing fanbase. And honestly, for a (almost) 8 year old console it's tricky on how to bring in a new fanbase, other than new kids entering the gaming world. I think it would be smart to try and get the smartphone gamers onto the Switch, add in some free games with daily tasks that are chill (like Animal Crossing: New Horizons, or Pokémon Picross, Flipnote Studio, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Crosswords, Art Academy, etc.). 

An F-Zero introduction for the Switch would be neat, and make the most out of NSO.

Would it be smart to bring in older games and just remake them like what they are doing for Mario v DK, TTYD? What other remakes/new releases could bring in the past gamer generations (not onto NSO)?
Kid Icarus
Punch Out!
Pilotwings
WaveRace
StarFox

New games in popular IPs keep selling consoles, even late in the lifecycle and even if there were already multiple games of the given IP. The hardware boost isn't as big as the first few times, but it's there nonetheless. Hence why a Pokémon game for the holidays still makes sense.

As for low-hanging fruits, you mentioning F-Zero as the prime candidate for some late life buzz is the perfect example of a low-hanging fruit in more than one way. Firstly, I can't see the IP getting better treatment than the dreadful Star Fox Zero (also a new game in a dormant franchise that people have kept asking for). Secondly, I don't think old fans are looking forward to online multiplayer and all the bullshit it brings with it, such as having to pay for it and the long waiting times from one race to the next. The game would have to be legit good to have any chance, which is why it can absolutely not be a remaster of GX which was the starting point of the end for F-Zero. Sega just couldn't live up to the task of making a Nintendo game.

And before I forget, there's another low-hanging fruit in your post: The Switch Sports crowd has smartphones now. You must have completely missed that both Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports went past the 10m mark with ease on Switch, putting it among the big Nintendo IPs of this generation.

Anyway, we won't be seeing any big hardware pusher anymore for Switch, because the console is closing in on saturation. A hardware revision would be more significant than any single game. However, a continued steady stream of new Nintendo releases is still important, because it will prevent sales momentum from collapsing before the successor is launched. So the answer to that question is that every game counts, even something as niche as Another Code Recollection which can only dream of reaching 1m units in sales.

Thank you for reminding me about Switch Sports; I forgot that one even exists. I thought of RFA, but figured that like Wii Sports Resort, a sequel would mostly attract people who already have the console, not potential new customers. Funny that you didn't mention Nintendogs, where the 3DS sequel sold like a sixth of the original. It was so popular of a launch title that it helped Nintendo slash the price of the system four months later.

F-Zero has a critic score of 89 and a user score of 8.7 on Metacritic. I'm sorry if you couldn't get past the second race in story mode. EDIT: almost forgot about your other low-hanging sore anus I mean fruit, that being F-Zero going online. You must have completely missed F-Zero 99, an entirely online version of the SNES game. It currently has an 8.4 rating on Metacritic among 74 user ratings and is still supported. Is that the "the long waiting times from one race to the next" and online bullshit you're referring to?

Never said that new games aren't important. I just don't think there are any last big blockbusters for the Switch at this point. Every release now is for the massive install base and to show that the current console won't be left out in the wilderness to rot like many Nintendo consoles of the past.

Unless Nintendo plans to continue supporting the Switch for a bit a la 3DS, it would be kind of late for any new projects to begin development now. Those games would need some blazing fast turnaround time.

I'd be all for it though. For something like an HD version of Kid Icarus Uprising and WaveRace: Blue Storm, where the most graphical work they'd put into them are widescreen mods and higher res models that happen to be lying around, might as well release them on Switch 1 with the massive install base, especially if Switch 2 is backwards compatible.

StarFox... *sigh* is the Rasputin of game IP. I've just accepted that it's more merciful to let it stay dead than to bring it back again and punish it even harder. Until someone is ready to make an SF game without bullshit gimmicks and with a control scheme designed for human hands, just let it stay dead. I'm done grieving for my favorite Nintendo IP.

I think that the switch will overtake the ps2 in sales.

142m END of FY2023 Selling 16m
152m END of FY2024 Selling 10.5m+
158m END of FY2025 Selling 5.25m+
160m+ End of life

I think that the delay of switch 2 and the last sole holiday ensure that the switch will sell well. I imagine a 33% drop in sales from 16 million to 10.5 million is reasonable not to mention if there is a BIG pokemon game this year like a legends or let's go it would help boost sales. The let's go and legends games have both sold 15 million units so I'm expecting a 33% drop if that were the case isn't unreasonable.

In FY of 2025 while the normal school of thought is that a system will lose about 66% of sales when a new console releases I think the drop will be 50% because of pokemon. I think that pokemon gen 10 will be switch 1 exclusive as pokemon typically don't put out new entries the first year a console comes out, so I do think that the switch will have another 25m seller. I do believe that a game that sells 25 million units probaby can bump sales as we have seen pokemon increase sales of switch hardware every time a new game comes out.

At that point all it will take is continued support of the switch with continued production and the swtich should pass the 160 mark.

All I really need for this prediction is that the pokemon company continuing to release games on switch and for fairly reasonable drops to happen.

I like your analysis.

Personally, I think Game Freak has had access to successor dev kits since ~July 2023. This allows Game Freak to come up with ideas for gen 10 to release 4 years after gen 9 release. I think The Pokémon Company will follow through with what their COO said, in which they will take some time (probably 1 more year) to polish their main games. That allows 1 year to imagine a game, and 3 years to develop it (2026 release). In the meantime they will release a Legends game, and outsource a remake for 2024 & 2025. Gen 10 will release on the successor, but the Legends and remake will be on the Switch. 

I agree with 142m by Mar 31 2024. Though I can expect to see ~11m by Mar 31 2025, and will put a price cut on the Switch. I personally believe it can sell 162.36m.

Gongratz to nintendo for doing the so called impossible and beating the best console of all time ths PS2, i would be VERRY suprised if the switch cant reach 160mill by next year march.

Let's not count chickens before they hatch, my friend. Don't forget that nothing with the Switch 2 is official. It hasn't even been acknowledged by Nintendo. Can't rule out the possibility of a holiday release or an announcement in the next few months that would hurt sales of the current one.