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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

pavel1995 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I like your analysis.

Personally, I think Game Freak has had access to successor dev kits since ~July 2023. This allows Game Freak to come up with ideas for gen 10 to release 4 years after gen 9 release. I think The Pokémon Company will follow through with what their COO said, in which they will take some time (probably 1 more year) to polish their main games. That allows 1 year to imagine a game, and 3 years to develop it (2026 release). In the meantime they will release a Legends game, and outsource a remake for 2024 & 2025. Gen 10 will release on the successor, but the Legends and remake will be on the Switch. 

I agree with 142m by Mar 31 2024. Though I can expect to see ~11m by Mar 31 2025, and will put a price cut on the Switch. I personally believe it can sell 162.36m.

The thing I have a problem believing is that gamefreak will really make their games quality improve or even wait three years. We've told gamefreak we will buy 25 million copies of pokemon scarlet and violet the broken buggy unfinished game. I don't think they'll take longer, but that's me trying not to give a bad company like gamefreak a pass until they improve the quality of their game.  

Gamefreak does need some reprimands from their disappointments of games, but I have seen some good games that released this console cycle.

Gamefreak launches a new mainline generation games at the 3 year mark. (Gen 1-2 3 years, Gen 2-3 3 years, Gen 5-6 2 years, Gen 6-7 3 years, Gen 7-8 3 years, Gen 8-9 3 years).
Gamefreak COO announced last year that they have considered talking about taking things slower to provide quality games. And with the release of a 2025 Legends game yesterday, it is a sign of taking things slower. Since the Switch they have released a game/DLC every year. (2016 Sun/Moon, 2017 US/UM, 2018 LGP/E, 2019 Sw/Sh, 2020 IoA & CT, 2021 BDSP, 2022 LA & S/V, 2023 TM & ID, 2024 Gap Year, 2025 LZ-A). 2025 is the year that gen 10 should come out. Now this doesn't mean that LZ-A won't be the only game in 2025 (like 2023), but from what we see 2024 has more grounds to be a "time out".

I think their Gen 10 will be in 2026 on the successor.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Shtinamin_ said:
pavel1995 said:

The thing I have a problem believing is that gamefreak will really make their games quality improve or even wait three years. We've told gamefreak we will buy 25 million copies of pokemon scarlet and violet the broken buggy unfinished game. I don't think they'll take longer, but that's me trying not to give a bad company like gamefreak a pass until they improve the quality of their game.  

Gamefreak does need some reprimands from their disappointments of games, but I have seen some good games that released this console cycle.

Gamefreak launches a new mainline generation games at the 3 year mark. (Gen 1-2 3 years, Gen 2-3 3 years, Gen 5-6 2 years, Gen 6-7 3 years, Gen 7-8 3 years, Gen 8-9 3 years).
Gamefreak COO announced last year that they have considered talking about taking things slower to provide quality games. And with the release of a 2025 Legends game yesterday, it is a sign of taking things slower. Since the Switch they have released a game/DLC every year. (2016 Sun/Moon, 2017 US/UM, 2018 LGP/E, 2019 Sw/Sh, 2020 IoA & CT, 2021 BDSP, 2022 LA & S/V, 2023 TM & ID, 2024 Gap Year, 2025 LZ-A). 2025 is the year that gen 10 should come out. Now this doesn't mean that LZ-A won't be the only game in 2025 (like 2023), but from what we see 2024 has more grounds to be a "time out".

I think their Gen 10 will be in 2026 on the successor.

Yeah, don't forget its magnum opus, Pocket Card Jockey: Ride On!

You think I'm being facetious, but I'm not.

But speaking of rereleases or remakes, can we get some Drill Dozer and HarmoKnight in this bitch?

Last edited by burninmylight - on 28 February 2024

burninmylight said:
RolStoppable said:

Good that you talked to Norion to clear up this mess.

I must say that I find it funny that this post of yours got more likes than all of your previous posts combined.

You finding that funny is on brand. When you're just an ambush predator with a mindset based on being right instead of making things right and you think the whole point of communication here is winning vs. losing, or "good guy vs. bad guy", that would seem absurd.

But since whose right and wrong and who has the most likes are the languages you understand, you'll be glad to know that you're wrong. According to my notifications, I've gotten at least six likes on my previous posts in this thread. For a guy who prides himself on knowing his stuff to throw shade at others, it's surprising your Likes analysis is so off the mark.

Thanks for pointing it out though. People usually leave a Like when they agree with the post. That post was about your years-long tirade of toxic behavior. Do the math.

Before your two most recent posts in this thread that got six likes on the basis of attacking me, you had six likes across your other 18 posts, meaning that the majority of your posts had no likes at all. Additionally, you don't get notifications for withdrawn likes which you certainly had. But I'll concede that three likes on one post aren't more likes than three to four on 18 posts combined.

So indeed, it's easy to do the math. Your argument in this thread was rubbish. And as for the likes for your two most recent posts, I've always had enemies on this site, because as you've said, I've proved people wrong a lot over the years. And at times they've been so way off the mark that merely pointing out the facts must have been humiliating for them. They'll be there to support you when you attack me, but they won't be there to agree with the arguments you've made in this thread. Go figure what this means for your ability to bring quality discussion to the table. It's also worth mentioning that not every like has the same value; you can usually see who gave you a like; and when you know the people here, you can figure why they might have given it to you; it doesn't necessarily mean that you are right in what you are saying, but rather that you said what they wanted to hear. In this specific example of you attacking me, you'll easily find a few people who won't care at all if what you say is correct or not.

I could continue to play this game where you assume that my stance is that more likes equate winning, but instead I am going to tell you why I talked about winning in the first place. It was when you couldn't stop yourself from badgering Norion, as if you were hellbent on still getting a win out of a discussion that you initiated with the same level of aggressiveness that you employed against DonFerrari in a thread about Nintendo and third parties. An aggressiveness that was never justified in the first place, because the guy you addressed isn't someone who wants harm for Nintendo or bashes the company (unlike Don who is willing to defend every company that acts negatively towards Nintendo). Furthermore, this is not some random thread, it's mine, hence why I keep looking at it and what's happening in here.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
burninmylight said:

You finding that funny is on brand. When you're just an ambush predator with a mindset based on being right instead of making things right and you think the whole point of communication here is winning vs. losing, or "good guy vs. bad guy", that would seem absurd.

But since whose right and wrong and who has the most likes are the languages you understand, you'll be glad to know that you're wrong. According to my notifications, I've gotten at least six likes on my previous posts in this thread. For a guy who prides himself on knowing his stuff to throw shade at others, it's surprising your Likes analysis is so off the mark.

Thanks for pointing it out though. People usually leave a Like when they agree with the post. That post was about your years-long tirade of toxic behavior. Do the math.

Before your two most recent posts in this thread that got six likes on the basis of attacking me, you had six likes across your other 18 posts, meaning that the majority of your posts had no likes at all. Additionally, you don't get notifications for withdrawn likes which you certainly had. But I'll concede that three likes on one post aren't more likes than three to four on 18 posts combined.

So indeed, it's easy to do the math. Your argument in this thread was rubbish. And as for the likes for your two most recent posts, I've always had enemies on this site, because as you've said, I've proved people wrong a lot over the years. And at times they've been so way off the mark that merely pointing out the facts must have been humiliating for them. They'll be there to support you when you attack me, but they won't be there to agree with the arguments you've made in this thread. Go figure what this means for your ability to bring quality discussion to the table. It's also worth mentioning that not every like has the same value; you can usually see who gave you a like; and when you know the people here, you can figure why they might have given it to you; it doesn't necessarily mean that you are right in what you are saying, but rather that you said what they wanted to hear. In this specific example of you attacking me, you'll easily find a few people who won't care at all if what you say is correct or not.

I could continue to play this game where you assume that my stance is that more likes equate winning, but instead I am going to tell you why I talked about winning in the first place. It was when you couldn't stop yourself from badgering Norion, as if you were hellbent on still getting a win out of a discussion that you initiated with the same level of aggressiveness that you employed against DonFerrari in a thread about Nintendo and third parties. An aggressiveness that was never justified in the first place, because the guy you addressed isn't someone who wants harm for Nintendo or bashes the company (unlike Don who is willing to defend every company that acts negatively towards Nintendo). Furthermore, this is not some random thread, it's mine, hence why I keep looking at it and what's happening in here.

So now you're getting into withdrawn likes that you can't measure (but you're SO sure exist, because apparently you're scanning each and every post for updates) and using a like-to-post ratio to determine... what exactly? You say I'm only making an assumption that your stance is "likes = winning", but you sure are spending a lot of time and energy keeping up with them to consistently bring them up.

My argument was based on a misunderstanding, one in which I consistently pushed for a complete one. I keep saying this, and you keep ignoring it. Me and the guy I got into it with eventually realized that it had gone too far and we talked privately, and I owned up to my behavior. I'm not embarrassed to say that. Funnily enough, we both kind of realized that we needed to course correct after you got involved. At least for me, it helped me see who I don't want to become.

You've always had enemies on this site because you spend most of your time here picking out posts that allow you to humiliate people. That's a great way to make enemies. Don and I have a history, but outside of saying, Nice burn, you really got me there and So what's your new spin for why Nintendo consoles keep getting new releases for games from big publishers if Nintendo users only buy Nintendo games? what did I say that wasn't on topic? I asked him for sources on his claims and I backed up mine. Yeah, I put a little extra spice on those posts based on who I was replying to. But my original reply was to Mnementh about how it's not fair to compare years-late and Legacy Edition Switch ports when there are better comparisons. But that doesn't fit your agenda, so you left that part out. Either way, are we really going to pretend like the very behavior you're trying to call me out for isn't the very behavior that you've brought to this site for much longer and in greater amounts?

I don't see your name within the first 40 or so posts of this thread, but I'll take your word that it's yours now. If you really wanted to come to some sort of resolution instead of trying to turn me into the next victim of your public flogging kink, maybe you do like Norion did and take it private. He's the one "good guy" in this whole situation; I've never pretended like it's me, and it sure as shit ain't you. With your sudden moral grandstanding, I'll have some optimism that you actually want to resolve this in a productive manner.



We need a one solid summer and one christmas title!!!!



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Hey, guys, maybe we can move along from personal attacks in this thread. It's already exciting enough without having one-on-one competitions. I probably should just keep my mouth shut, but I don't see the current back and forth furthering the discussion regarding the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time.



burninmylight said:

So now you're getting into withdrawn likes that you can't measure (but you're SO sure exist, because apparently you're scanning each and every post for updates) and using a like-to-post ratio to determine... what exactly? You say I'm only making an assumption that your stance is "likes = winning", but you sure are spending a lot of time and energy keeping up with them to consistently bring them up.

My argument was based on a misunderstanding, one in which I consistently pushed for a complete one. I keep saying this, and you keep ignoring it. Me and the guy I got into it with eventually realized that it had gone too far and we talked privately, and I owned up to my behavior. I'm not embarrassed to say that. Funnily enough, we both kind of realized that we needed to course correct after you got involved. At least for me, it helped me see who I don't want to become.

You've always had enemies on this site because you spend most of your time here picking out posts that allow you to humiliate people. That's a great way to make enemies. Don and I have a history, but outside of saying, Nice burn, you really got me there and So what's your new spin for why Nintendo consoles keep getting new releases for games from big publishers if Nintendo users only buy Nintendo games? what did I say that wasn't on topic? I asked him for sources on his claims and I backed up mine. Yeah, I put a little extra spice on those posts based on who I was replying to. But my original reply was to Mnementh about how it's not fair to compare years-late and Legacy Edition Switch ports when there are better comparisons. But that doesn't fit your agenda, so you left that part out. Either way, are we really going to pretend like the very behavior you're trying to call me out for isn't the very behavior that you've brought to this site for much longer and in greater amounts?

I don't see your name within the first 40 or so posts of this thread, but I'll take your word that it's yours now. If you really wanted to come to some sort of resolution instead of trying to turn me into the next victim of your public flogging kink, maybe you do like Norion did and take it private. He's the one "good guy" in this whole situation; I've never pretended like it's me, and it sure as shit ain't you. With your sudden moral grandstanding, I'll have some optimism that you actually want to resolve this in a productive manner.

This sidetracking with the likes started with me making a funny observation and then you kept talking about in ways that weren't really true. The withdrawn likes became relevant because you said you got "at least 6 likes", but I didn't count that many; therefore there must either be withdrawn ones or you lied about the number; that's all there is to that. The like-to-post ratio became relevant because you talked about likes as if you had received plenty before I had made my funny observation; a like-to-post ratio that is well below 1 like per post is nothing to brag about; that's all there is to that. You didn't say anything about the F-Zero topic anymore, but kept responding, so something else was talked about, namely the likes because of my funny observation and my toxic behavior because you deemed that to be more relevant; this is how the discussion "evolved" (I put this in quotes because the word "went sideways" is probably more appropriate in this case).

Your original argument was based on a misunderstanding, followed by perplexing behavior. I brought up DonFerrari to elaborate on what I mean, and I don't mind that you put extra spice into your responses to Don because it's appropriate in that spot; the point here is that Don and Norion are not alike, so they shouldn't be treated the same way. I am not going to pretend that I never jumped the gun when addressing someone, however, when I went wrong, I didn't drag it out for around ten posts before I started making concessions.

You don't need to take my word on this being my thread. You can either look at the Hot Topics section on this website's frontpage or at the Hot Topics list in the Forum section. My name is listed as the thread creator's in both places.

As for the good guy/bad guy talk, I'll quote myself:

I am glad that you are finally willing to stop. Why am I supposed to know when you are serious or use extensive hyperbole? When you complain about misinterpretation, you should at least hold up your end, especially in a discussion that only exists in the first place because of the way you addressed Norion. I don't think any observer of this thread thinks that you are the good guy here. But it's also not that I think you are bad, rather it's that you missed the point where you should have reconsidered and instead doubled down, so that's how it got so far.

And I still stand by this analysis of the situation. This was the point where you then responded that you've cleared things up with Norion privately, and I said that's good; accompanied by my funny observation of likes which was enough reason for you to fight. I can't deny that I like a good forum brawl, hence why I kept engaging.

I hope this post contained sufficient explanations for the various points you talked about. I am prepared to fight some more, because it's not like there's much else to talk about on this website. But why again do we need to fight? There's no good reason for it... well, other than the good old NFC North rivalry. If you want to fight, you can have a fight. If you want to have a productive end, you can have that too; although we are well past that end already because you and Norion are good now. So the productive end would be something along the lines of "no hard feelings"?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

super_etecoon said:

Hey, guys, maybe we can move along from personal attacks in this thread. It's already exciting enough without having one-on-one competitions. I probably should just keep my mouth shut, but I don't see the current back and forth furthering the discussion regarding the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time.

Nah, it's not exciting. It's typically boring for long stretches, because financial reports are three months apart and new announcements inbetween are sparse. In that sense, going back on topic essentially means to abandon this thread for two months.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
super_etecoon said:

Hey, guys, maybe we can move along from personal attacks in this thread. It's already exciting enough without having one-on-one competitions. I probably should just keep my mouth shut, but I don't see the current back and forth furthering the discussion regarding the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time.

Nah, it's not exciting. It's typically boring for long stretches, because financial reports are three months apart and new announcements inbetween are sparse. In that sense, going back on topic essentially means to abandon this thread for two months.

I get your point, but also don't think that's actually the case.  This is one of the few threads here that seems to keep going regardless of new info being added.  It's the main event, other than Switch 2 announcements.



znake said:

We need a one solid summer and one christmas title!!!!

super_etecoon said:

Hey, guys, maybe we can move along from personal attacks in this thread. It's already exciting enough without having one-on-one competitions. I probably should just keep my mouth shut, but I don't see the current back and forth furthering the discussion regarding the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time.

I agreed to both of you. When person 1 resorts to attacking the characteristics of someone is when that person 1 has lost the argument. Who cares.

Zsnake I agree, personally I think they’ll release Metroid Prime 4 as the holiday title, and TTYD will be the summer title. What do you think will be the summer and holiday title?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.